Do they know that we know that they know that we know that they know ...?

[pling]

[strike]OK, got it now, I think, mistake in the spreadsheet plus bad assumptions I think the current assumptions make more logical sense, including assuming plako is right and Pirates settled on a PH then I can make the following work:

TEAM: non-PH capital, working a 3/0/1 tile on turn 0 & turn 1. (Food = 5; Prod = 1; GNP = 19)

Menagerie: non-PH capital, working a 2/0/1 tile on turn 1. Didn't settle till Turn 1. (Food = 4; Prod =4; GNP = 18)

Gillette: PH capital and are working a 2/0/1 tile on turn 0 & turn 1. (Is there a tile that's 2/1/1 non-improved? If there is & the starts are non-mirrored then a non-PH capital plus a 2/1/1 tile is also possible). (Food = 4; Prod = 2; GNP = 18)

Pirates: PH capital, on turn 0 they worked a 2/0/1 tile, on turn 1 they worked a 1/2/0 tile. (Food = 4 -> 3; Prod = 2 -> 4; GNP = 18 -> 17)

Everyone except us is either researching a tech with no pre-reqs OR is making use of the trick where you don't lose beakers till turn 5 (I believe - I think it was SevenSpirits said that somewhere). Otherwise their GNP would be more like our current one (21) than ours on turn 0 (19).[/strike]

Edit: Still problems with this, in particular the GNP. I'll get there in the end I hope

[pling]

Known things:

TEAM settled on a non-PH and (at least on T0) are working a 3/0/1 tile while either researching a tech with no pre-req OR using the trick where you don't lose beakers by not selecting a tech in the first 5 turns. Known from having the demos after they alone had settled.

No-one is coastal as everyone has 9 land tiles first ring.

Someone on Turn 1 has a capital on a PH and is working at 2h tile because that's the only way I can think of to get 4 prod at this stage. They weren't doing that on T0, so either that's Menagerie or it's someone switching tiles. If the starts are mirrored then it's not Menagerie (no PH in range).

On Turn 0 the GNPs were one of these two possibilities:

TEAM = 19 // Pirates = 19 // Gillette = 17 // Menagerie = 1
TEAM = 19 // Pirates = 18 // Gillette = 18 // Menagerie = 1

This is because of superjm seeing the average was 9 after Gillette had settled, but before Pirates did so, so those are the only numbers that fit.

For non-Cre civs that means: GNP of 19 = ?/?/1 tile PLUS researching a tech with a pre-req OR working the wines (1/1/3 for a Fin Civ) with no pre-req/no tech. GNP of 18 = ?/?/0 tile PLUS researching a tech with a pre-req. GNP of 17 = ?/?/1 tile PLUS researching a tech with no pre-req (or not selecting a tech).

If the starts are mirrored: If the Pirates settled on a PH then they have selected a tech with a pre-req (AH, Poly, Medi). If they didn't, they might've moved to get the wines first ring.

I think that's all I can actually tell from the numbers, rather than leaping to conclusions like I did earlier

Anyone anything else?

[T-hawk]

Someone on Turn 1 has a capital on a PH and is working at 2h tile because that's the only way I can think of to get 4 prod at this stage.

There's another possibility: the city center plus a 3-hammer tile equals 4 production. (Not a spoiler, I haven't followed whether anyone is doing that or not.) A 3-hammer tile can be a plains hill with either forest or marble or stone (or ivory, but that doesn't naturally occur in forests.)

[pling]

Thanks, I had a feeling I was missing something there.

That would also, I think, require someone to have only 2 food, which isn't possible on Turn 1 (rival min of 3) - or, I suppose, to've settled on a resource to get a 3 food centre tile?

I guess that's one "known thing" that bites the dust, oh well

(More generally (and not addressed specifically to T-hawk) I'm aware that trying to track most of this stuff is probably a) futile and b) useless, but I do like the puzzle so I'll do it anyway :neenernee)

[plako]

Hiding your research+worked tiles from Demographics is easy i.e. after ending turn you could remove the tech selected or choose something else and then choose your tech back before ending next turn. This works also for tiles worked. You can only get totally correct numbers from graphs. I'm not fan of this kind of deceiving. We could suggest banning it or accept that demographics are not very accurate way to investigate what our competitors do and potentially consider doing similar deceiving too.

However here is my best guess what others are doing:

Assuming identical starting spots TEAM settled on same spot as us and worked almost certainly flood plains. They did have 19/1/5 (GNP/MFG/CY). They're Willem of Sumeria starting with Wheel+Agri. Prime candidates for tech are Pottery, AH and Mining.

Willem gets:
+4 culture
+4 EP points
+9 from palace and starting position
+1 from working flood plains
+1 extra beaker
=> GNP 19 (unless prereq bonuses)

As Pling said Mining or accumulating beaker overflow are main candidates.

I suspect that also Gillette settled also on same spot and worked the same flood plains (Unless they settled differently 1st and 2nd round). I think that shouldn't happen. They also worked 3 food riverside tile similarily to TEAM. They start with Fishing and Hunting so Agriculture or Mining are main candidates for their 1st tech. This translates to GNP 17.

My gut feeling is that Menagerie settled on Wines. They start with Hunting and Mining so Agriculture, AH or BW makes most sense for them. Their GNP will be also 19 without tech selected.

Pirates settled on plains hill and in demographics seem like they would be working plains forest. That doesn't make much sense for them when there is Flood plains tile available unless they start with warrior/scout (why would they do that?). They start with Mystisicm+Agri. AH or mining are most potential tech candidates for them.

[pling]

New numbers in the spreadsheet, not many changes - TEAM's borders popped, as we'd expect. They have all land in their BFC.

@plako: I didn't know you could move your tiles around effectively "for free" like that in sequential pitboss - I'd assumed it was more like PBEM, somehow. Live & learn And thanks for the breakdown of GNP - I'd figured it out eventually, but it's always nice to get confirmation

Re: the Pirates working a plains forest - they could be doing that trick of moving tiles, but didn't do it on Turn 0. Coz definitely no-one had production of 4 on Turn 0.

I'm not entirely comfortable about getting locked into assuming that the starts are identical before there's something other than convenience to make us think that. It does make all the numbers make nice amounts of sense, I'm just wary about getting too blinkered

[Mist]

Picking up on issue of C&D obfuscation outside a team's turn. This is not something we discussed before the game and some lurkers voiced an opinion this kind of stuff should be banned. I'm mildly in favor on this ( it's relatively harmless in the long run, but does give an edge to teams with better timezone spacing and more people that can log in frequently ), but won't push for a ban unless all teams are in favor.

Would you agree to a ban on altering game state outside a team's turn?

Because the game is in progress already there will be no public vote. The ban will pass only with unanimous support. If it fails, there will be no information who vetoed it or why.

[pling]

Plugged the new numbers into the spreadsheet. Only change is in Food - rival min goes from 3 to 4. Production & GNP stay the same.

I think this is maybe incompatible with the identical starts theory. If the 4 production is from settling on a PH and working a plains forest (while we can see it), then they would have 3 food. Currently no-one has 3 food.

Is there any way to make it work with the tiles we see?

I'm thinking not, but I may well've missed something obvious Basically I think you need a PH capital plus a 2/2/x tile to add up to 4 food/4 prod (probably 1st ring, coz we know for sure that TEAM are not a on PH and no-one else's borders have popped - if it's a non-PH capital then you need a 2/3/x tile).

@Darrell - I don't need the score mouseover any more, thanks

Re Mist's question about banning game-state changes out of turn: Not sure which way I fall on that one, I can see the point about a team that can do that has an edge, but I can see that banning it gives an edge to any team that has a competent C&D department. So whatever the team collectively thinks, I'm happy with

[plako]

Picking up on issue of C&D obfuscation outside a team's turn. This is not something we discussed before the game and some lurkers voiced an opinion this kind of stuff should be banned. I'm mildly in favor on this ( it's relatively harmless in the long run, but does give an edge to teams with better timezone spacing and more people that can log in frequently ), but won't push for a ban unless all teams are in favor.

Would you agree to a ban on altering game state outside a team's turn?

Because the game is in progress already there will be no public vote. The ban will pass only with unanimous support. If it fails, there will be no information who vetoed it or why.

I support initiative to ban this especially concerning research since that could be used to hide your research from nations that legitimately has got research visibility. Tile changing is not that bad and soon becomes quite irrelevant.

[darrelljs]

@Darrell - I don't need the score mouseover any more, thanks

Cool, just let me know if you need anything going forward .

This is all black arts to me, but I'm enjoying it!

Darrell