Do they know that we know that they know that we know that they know ...?

[pling]

Thx - Pling. It seems they haven't gone that heavy on Knights. Good news for us.

Providing those boats are full - that's the biggest unknown in this.

Now the main question is what happens on T145. Tasunk bringing on sizeable force would be very hard for us to counter.

I need to look at the power graph for this turn still, but at the moment TEAM's power isn't growing as quickly as I'd feared given his refusal to sign a new NAP. Of course it's early yet - maybe he's going to whip everything to the ground over the next 5 turns.

[pling]

Turn 141

TEAM: Whipped off 3 pop from 2 cities, grew 4 cities. I gave them 2 Maces last turn & 2 Maces this turn, looks about right (ish). Very hard to disambiguate them & M3 now.

Menagerie: Grew 6 cities. Gave them a cat last turn.

Gillette: Grew 9 cities, another 5k of power gain to account for - put down as a cat.

Pirates: Grew 3 cities.

-----

If anyone manages to log in after TEAM have played but before M3 (each turn), then can you grab me screenies of the demographics. That'll make it easier to track what TEAM's power is doing. I'll try myself as well, but there's such a short window of time normally coz HAK's very good at playing his turn promptly.

[pling]

Caught it myself this time - so I know TEAM's power has risen by 60k this turn (not adjusted for pop change yet).

Also of note, TEAM don't care if we see what they're doing:







So I'd guess for now that 60k is 6 Knights, 3 of which we see.

[pling]

Turn 142

TEAM: Whipped 14 pop off 8 cities, grew 7 cities. 60k net power rise, I know this from demos. 62k to account for - put it down as 6 Knights and a Galley.

Menagerie: Grew 4 cities. Another 5k to account for - a Cat perhaps? Makes me wonder if TEAM will get Cats from M3 as well. Of course it's that paranoia that's making me put down the 5k rises as cats, so it's a bit circular.

Gillette: Double whipped 2 cities, took ours, razed it, took ours, kept it for 2 pop, grew 5 cities, got Compass. Lost 40k power (3 Beserkers during their turn, 1 Beserker during ours). That leaves me with 25k power to account for - put it down as 2 Beserkers and a Cat. Knights might be more likely tho.

Pirates: grew a city.

(Edit: updated power assignments for Gillette)

[pling]

TEAM got a 34k net rise in power in their turn.

[pling]

Damnit, just seen I missed TEAM played earlier and now M3's played

Anyway, Turn 143

TEAM: Whipped 6 pop off three cities, grew 5 cities. Had a net power rise of 34k, so that's 35k to account for - put it down as 3 Knights plus a Cat.

Menagerie: Grew 4 cities. There's another 1k power to account for which I don't think is possible - must've made a mistake somewhere with pop.

Gillette: Grew three cities. The units we killed account for all the rest of the power change - nothing new was built this turn.

Pirates: Haven't figured out what's going on with them yet. They got 40 points of score - which could be 10 cities growing but it's probably more likely they got a tech or a wonder to account for some of that. They got an increase of 12k power.

[pling]

Turn 144

TEAM: Whipped 9 pop off 5 cities, grew 10 cities. I changed the Cat from last turn's C&D to a a Trireme+Galley because I'd forgotten TEAM don't have Construction. I need to look at the graphs to properly disambiguate power between TEAM & M3 this turn, but what I do know is that they can have up to 5 Knights built this turn (combined power rise of 59k for the two teams).

Menagerie: Whipped 3 pop off 2 cities, grew 2 cities. Got an ancient era tech - the only one I did have them as having was Priesthood. Don't know how much of the power rise was theirs.

Gillette: Whipped 7 pop off 3 cities, grew 7 cities. Got Compass. Lost 30k power for the 3 Knights we killed, so gained 26k from builds. Put that down as 2 Knights & a Longbow.

Pirates: Whipped a city, grew a city. No visible changes, still haven't looked to see what tech they got last turn.

[plako]

3M built UoS.

[pling]

Been dropping the ball with this sorry. Will sort it out properly tomorrow I hope but here's some highlights:

Gillette's power rise on T145 can be completely accounted for by population. Their power rise on T146 is 16k net, of which 2 or 3k is pop. So can't be much in terms of big scary units. Couple of longbows or crossbows perhaps?

Of note - we can see 14 Knights/Beserkers of Gillette's in that stack. I have them down as having 22 total - so a max of 8 on those boats (providing my numbers have some resemblance to reality ).

TEAM's power rose a fair chunk on T144 looking at the graphs, so I'm sticking with the 50k-ish estimate. On T145 it rose a net of 44k (I got that from demos) and then accounting for pop I have 47k to assign to units - they have at least one crossbow after that turn so there's 7k. Up to 4 Knights? TEAM+M3 combined only rose 7k on T146 so not really space for anything big and scary. I need to do some thinking here to re-assign power to be longbows and/or crossbows rather than Knights, because I have no longbows down in the spreadsheet so clearly that's wrong!

[pling]

T147 - I think TEAM can have got another 7 Knights built. Some of these may be the ones we could see not in the big stack on our T147 (but can't count on that).

Power rise (that's not tech or pop) since they got Guilds on T138 as follows (all numbers approximate):

T139 = 18k
T140 = 18k
T141 = 17k
T142 = 63k
T143 = 35k
T144 = up to 58k
T145 = 47k
T146 = up to 8k
T147 = up to ~70k

One problem with these numbers is I'm not sure if I've been accounting for TEAM's habit of whipping immediately after end of turn properly. In fact, I'm pretty sure I haven't been. So that adds an extra layer of vagueness to the whole thing. Given all of that, I'll round up things like 18k to 20k.

A worst case estimate of Knights is therefore 34. Of which we have 19 in the stack he's moved in, and a potential second wave of 15.

I think those numbers have to be too high - that doesn't leave much (if any) space for the longbows we've seen. But I think it's the upper limit.