[SPOILERS] scooter's thread: England

[scooter]

Well Rowain just alerted Nakor that he will be moving into Piedmont, and he also told me and Uberfish the same. Nakor is not happy. Get out your popcorn!

[scooter]

Well that went pretty well. Nakor is in a tight spot next turn with no real good place to go. Rowain moved into Piedmont like I was hoping which means he's basically tied down next turn. I'll aim to do a post tonight outlining all the potential scenarios. It's a guessing game, but Nakor will have to have completely perfect guesses to even have a chance at two centers, which is a good thing.

No one els did anything exciting. That bounce in the black sea is interesting but not exactly shocking either. I've certainly got some diplo to catch you all up on and then I'll have a round of messages to send out tonight. Fun stuff.

[Mardoc]

Well that went pretty well. Nakor is in a tight spot next turn with no real good place to go. Rowain moved into Piedmont like I was hoping which means he's basically tied down next turn. I'll aim to do a post tonight outlining all the potential scenarios. It's a guessing game, but Nakor will have to have completely perfect guesses to even have a chance at two centers, which is a good thing.

No one els did anything exciting. That bounce in the black sea is interesting but not exactly shocking either. I've certainly got some diplo to catch you all up on and then I'll have a round of messages to send out tonight. Fun stuff.

I look forward to your take. In particular, what I'm wondering is what the spring moves reveal about alliances and people's likely fall moves; I tried to figure out some of this, but I'm sure it's much more straightforward for someone who's played before.

Could you give us some insight on the stuff that doesn't directly impact you, too? Like why that Black Sea bounce is interesting, say?

[scooter]

I look forward to your take. In particular, what I'm wondering is what the spring moves reveal about alliances and people's likely fall moves; I tried to figure out some of this, but I'm sure it's much more straightforward for someone who's played before.

Could you give us some insight on the stuff that doesn't directly impact you, too? Like why that Black Sea bounce is interesting, say?

Yep, I'm going to try to give my analysis on the moves and what they mean... And then either tonight or tomorrow I'll spend some time doing some projections/predictions on what can/will happen... I'll go into greater detail in the Western Theater - outlining all the possibilities that I'm considering and why, as well as trying to out-think Nakor and figure out what he will do. Should be fun. So let's dive in to a recap.


Well first of all, I definitely called it in this picture so I'm going to go ahead and pat myself on the back real quick




So for reference, here's Sareln's breakdown of the moves:



1. Nakor's moves puts him in a bit of a bind in a few spots. The fleet in MAO could theoretically be risky and go for Portugal, but it's more likely that he'll try to cover Brest. I'll go into greater detail on this point when I analyze the upcoming Fall turns.

2. Nakor's move into Burgundy with support is wise in that it holds Germany in check for this year, but the drawback is that he is unable to cover Brest with that army - which plays into the planning for #1.

3. My move to the English Channel tips my hand to Nakor that I do not have friendly intentions. This is just life - I believe if we play our hand well in the fall and catch a lucky break, Nakor will be in a disastrous position by the end of this year.

4. Lewwyn played a fairly conservative turn set - played like someone who doesn't have a grasp on the diplomatic situation so he took no chances. He will get one center. I do think the Tri->Ven move is quite interesting... Doesn't seem to be an Austria/Italy alliance brewing unless the thing is just a smokescreen.

5. Rowain has a put a lot of pressure on France. Nakor can't really afford to go Mar-Spa next turn. I'm going to put a lot of pressure on Rowain to move into Marseilles on the off-chance that Nakor leaves it wide open.

Like why that Black Sea bounce is interesting, say?

6. To answer this - the Black sea is the critical tile between Russia and Turkey. Whoever controls that tile is in command of the situation. Controlling the Black Sea allows the player in control to engineer an invasion, either by convoy with support or by using the ship to support an army, or even using an army to support a ship.

So the point is - what does this bounce mean? It could be that they agreed to do it ahead of time. This could mean they are working together, but it could also have just been proposed to difuse the situation. The thing with Turkey is you have no choice really. With the congestion of tiles around Constantinople, the fleet's only choice really is to try for the Black Sea. In general, it's more dangerous to Turkey if Russia controls it than if Turkey controls it versus Russia. I just can't help but think if they were truly allied, that Regoarrar would consider ceding the Black Sea for the first year. Then again, Sev->Rum in the Spring is sort of awkward, so it could potentially mean nothing at all. Just something to keep an eye on.

7. I still can't quite figure Rowain's thinking. He told me by chat that the point of Piedmont was so that he could control Piedmont and Venice, thus preventing a Germany/Austria pressure from Tyrolia/Trieste. This just seems odd though - why not just go to Tyrolia yourself? He's insisted several times that he is very anti-France and wants to see France struggle. I hinted to him pretty strongly that I would take the Channel (he was tip-toeing a bit with me today - trying to figure if I was pro-France or anti-France). I'll clear with Uberfish, but I'll likely try to come out and just tell him and get him fully on board - getting him to go for Marseille next turn. We'll see how that goes.

8. Regoarrar is WAY too skilled at being manipulative to be without some sort of alliance brewing, so it's up to me to try to figure out what it is. His moves towards Austria would seem to indicate a deal with Turkey, though I question that to an extent. I've already made an attempt at trying to fracture relations over there just in case . Mildly devious I suppose, but it was fun . I'll share that once I do my next diplo update, which will either be tonight or tomorrow morning, depending on how soon I'm ready for sleep.


Alright, that sums up my analysis of the moves. My alliance projections:

Russia/Turkey: I say this one is likely developing. Lewwyn's moves just feel like they were made by someone who doesn't have any real friends yet, which would fit given that his role-play has turned some people off. By process of elimination, a Russia-Turkey alliance could be forming. A Russia/Turkey alliance is known at "The Juggernaut" - as it's probably the most powerful 2-country alliance possible. If executed properly, it's darn near impossible to stop, and often involves pulling in a 3rd party (Italy is pretty logical) who subsequently gets dropped.

The thing about the Juggernaut is that it usually leads to a Russian victory with Turkey coming in 2nd. If Amelia is pretty new to the game, then she may get sucked into riding Regoarrar's coattails to a 2nd place finish, which would suck mightily. In contrast though, if she is experienced, she may recognize the need for a stab, which could be highly entertaining. Reminds me - I should ask Amelia about her experience level.

Italy/no-one: I think Italy wants to work with Austria, but Lewwyn's style is making it difficult. I asked Rowain if he and Italy were considering a Lepanto opening (if anyone would like that explained, speak up and I'll do a write-up about it tomorrow - it's a fun idea), and he said he would've been interested, but Lewwyn kinda shot it down. Given their moves in the Spring, they obviously have no intentions of going for it, so I tend to think Rowain is getting a little left out in the cold. Watch out for a Russia/Italy alliance down the road if the Russia/Turkey thing doesn't work, and/or the Juggernaut pulling him in as a 3rd party. (again, the Russia/Turkey thing is all speculative, it's ridiculous for me to say it's on with certainty after just one move observation.)

Alright, I'm going to get something to eat, and then I may do some sort of diplo dump before bed. Any questions, speak up.

[scooter]

(NOTE: All Diplo in this post occurred BEFORE the turn was processed and I sent in my moves. Just thought I'd clarify that for those who are confused on the timing of these messaegs)

So to jump back to earlier - Mardoc asked why I poked Rowain about not answering my question, and I sort of answered. Well Rowain responded to me, here's what he had to say:

Hi scooter

About France: We do have contact but about his plans little is known to me. Most of his conversation is him telling me what my best moves would be.

Incidentally all those best moves consists of my Armies marching to the east .

About his own moves he was very coy. And according to him nothing is decided in the west.

About the norway fleet It could have been a guess of mine which you confirmed or russia ( who would know about it ne?) or somebody else.

But I have not talked about it to anybody else but you so if you want it to be a secret I keep my mouth shut.

From Italy with love

The bolded and underlined part made me laugh. I need to remember that trick, as it's quite possible Rowain pulled it on me. I feel silly for confirming, but it's overall pretty harmless info, so it's not all bad. Still though, it gave me inspiration to fire this off to Lewwyn:

Lewwyn,

So I'm hearing rumors of a Russian/Turkish alliance. Any idea what's up with that? Obviously that's not something you'd like to have happen given that you'd be in trouble if that happened... What's the word on the street in Austria?

scooter

Well that could be fun. Might give me the inside scoop and/or fracture some relations in the eastern theater. This was the little bit of deviousness I mentioned earlier. It's pretty harmless really, just a fun tactic to mine information if it pans out.



Next was the late afternoon, which was basically a whole ton of on-and-off chatting (mostly unnecessary to be honest, but I had a lot of downtime at work so why not). Let me know if you want the transcripts, otherwise if a summary is good enough, here it is:

1. Uberfish/DC tipped me off that Rowain told them that he was going into Piedmont. He also told them that he told Nakor... If you follow that. So I was the only one he told. We were discussing it (just thinking through possibilities really), when

2. Rowain poked me on chat and filled me in on going into Piedmont. Said he was irritated that Nakor tried to direct him at Austria. Also said it was interesting that Nakor was so frustrated by it but wouldn't say why. (um, maybe because you are invading him? )

3. Nakor told me more of the same by chat. I tried to give him help on managing the situation, as there's not much he can really do about this. More like I gave suggestions for him. And yes, he'll be pretty upset when he sees me in the English Channel.

So that should get us allll the way caught up to the time the moves went down. Going to send some emails, though I may wait to update on that until tomorrow when I can include some responses and comments. Plus that'll give you all time to process this massive info dump and ask questions.

[scooter]

One last post. Regoarrar sent me this:

Hey Scooter,

So.... interesting times over in the west! Looks like you guys managed to pull off some EGI cooperation, and getting 3 powers on board is quite the feat in the early game! Do you think Nakor got a tipoff or did he just suspect something? Or maybe he's just paranoid.

Regardless, it looks like he's guaranteed 1 build and it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that he'll get 2. Given any thought to switching up sides? Seems like now might be a good time to try that - Convoy Wales to Belgium (maybe even with French support?) and take Norway and you've got your 2 builds, which is a very good showing for England in 1901. Plus another army on the continent allows you to force the Ruhr in 1902 and after that Germany goes down pretty quickly.

I guess in the end it doesn't matter a whole lot to me whether you work with France or Germany - I haven't had much dealings with either of them so you probably know the situation a lot better than me - so it's definitely up to you. I guess all things being equal, as Russia, I'd prefer to not see the E/G alliance since an EG alliance usually starts heading after Sweden and St. Petersburg sooner rather than later....

Anyway over here, 2 bounces out of 4 units and I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 bounces again in the fall. What's the fun of having all these units when they don't go anywhere ;-)

dan.
regoarrarr
russia

Sent him a reply:

Regoarrar,

What's funny is there wasn't exactly any 3-way conversations going on... Without getting into TOO many details, the fact that all the moves seem to have colluded this way was somewhat surprising to me as well. Some of them I knew about (like mine for instance!), some of them I didn't.

I actually would definitely not say he's guaranteed any builds. Sure he'll likely get 1, but every reach for a build (Spain/Portugal are the two reachable ones) are both risky. Portugal he gives up Brest if I go for it, and Spain he gives up Marseilles if Rowain goes for it. So really it's a guessing game for Nakor, and I wouldn't go inking him for 1-2 builds quite yet. The Spain one is probably fairly safe though given his position in Burgundy I'll admit, so perhaps you have a point.

All that said... Yes I am taking every option into consideration. I wouldn't at all say I'm hitched to anyone in particular yet, because France and Germany are clearly on opposite sides, so I'm in the nice position of being able to let things develop and go from there. Fortunate, really.

Either way, as long as you are serious about keeping things low-key between us in the north, I'm happy to stick with what we said regardless of who I end up siding with. All I want is Norway, and I'm happy to leave the north for you to figure out. I certainly don't plan on harassing St. Petersburg. For that reason, I'd actually hope to see you not using your center gains in order to, say, build a fleet in St. Petersburg . It's like any civ game really, I don't want pressure between us as we have more important things to do, but if you start mobilizing up there, it will understandably make me a little nervous. Communication is important here.

So enough about the west, the east is where the REAL intrigue is . How goes negotiations? Got yourself an alliance yet? A lurker asked me what I thought the moves meant in terms of alliances in the east, and I had some theories, but I admitted I wasn't sure... but I also said I figured there was no way that this many days have gone by without you cooking up some sort of deal with your neighbors, so I admit I'm curious on how things are playing out over there. Any idea who the odd man out will be?

scooter

1. Downplayed EGI talks, because there really isn't a 3-way alliance, and I don't want him getting jumpy and doing something crazy.

2. Tried to give further push towards keeping military low in the northern waters. This is why I ceded Sweden/St Pete to Germany by the way - I'd rather just ignore the north for now.

3. Some poking about things in the east. I'm not expecting him to seriously tell me what's going on, but it can't hurt to ask.


Alright, Nakor's online now so I really need to go to bed just because yeah.

[scooter]

Alright, I'm going to try to do some analysis on Nakor's possible moves. It's somewhat complicated, and then when you factor in what I, Italy, and Germany could do - well it gets really complicated. There's tons of options here. So I'll analyze Nakor's stuff first, then look at everyone else's, and then give you my move possibilities. These will have to be broken up into separate posts probably. Alright, let's dig in. This is Nakor's most likely move set:



The two moves in the yellow box are very likely. If he takes those moves, that is the only way to 100% guarantee himself one center. No other moves can guarantee it, but there are other ways if he guesses correctly (and depending on my moves). So to keep things simple, we are first going to assume he makes these moves.

Mar-Spa: This is simple - his one guaranteed center if he takes it. However, it only counts if he doesn't lose Marseilles, which is being threatened by Italy. For those new to the game - by "it only counts" - I mean +1 -1 effectively is the same as staying put in Marseilles - I don't mean that he doesn't gain Spain - he does. But +1 Spa and -1 Mar is effectively a loss for France - as he loses ground. Can't afford that really.

Bur-Mar: This guarantees that Marseilles is not lost. This is why it's his only guaranteed center.

Mao-Bre: This is the question mark. This move is 50/50, as Mao-Por is every bit as much possible. Here, he is trying to outguess me. Am I going to go for Brest? If so, it's game over if he goes to Portugal. Am I going to go to Belgium? If so, he's lost out on his second center if he goes to Brest. If he guesses WRONG and goes Mao-Bre, he gets just one center AND he cannot build on Brest. If he guesses wrong and goes Mao-Por, obviously he's toast already. So it's tough for him. Mao-Por is probably high risk-high reward, which is why Eng-Bre is awfully tempting for me, because if I was in his shoes, I'd go Mao-Por just to risk it.


So that's the most likely scenario. Two moves pretty much nailed down, and the third is 50/50 - total guesswork. Seems simple enough right? Well there's one other scenario that could happen, and it's called the "screw England" scenario:



The key unit here is the Italy army in Piedmont. I haven't gone into great detail yet explaining how significant the unit there is, but if 1) Rowain convinces Nakor he will stand down at Marseilles or 2) Nakor gambles that he will do that or 3) Nakor is so mad at me that he decides to gamble in the south and ensure that I only get 1 center - well this is how he could do it. This would especially be bad for me if I went at Brest and Rowain stood down. This move in particular is a huge risk for Nakor, so it's highly unlikely, but it's worth documenting.

So for the rest of the moves, Rowain has 2 realistic moves with Army Piedmont (nothing else matters), Uberfish has 2 realistic moves with Army Munich (nothing else matters), and I have 4 of them with Fleet English Channel (North Sea is going Norway). See if you can figure out what they are and what their ramifications are, and I'll give the answers after I get back from lunch.

[Jkaen]

From what I understand your 4 options are:

eng-convoy, wal-bre
eng-convoy, wal-bel
eng-bre, wal-support
eng-bel, wal-support

Is that right?

[Commodore]

Unless I'm very much mistaken, you can only support if your territory touches the territory being invaded.

I'm assuming eng-mao is just too silly?

Germany has awesome choices. mun-bur or mun-ruh are dull and conventional, if smart. den-nth is hilarious. With Italy pushing France hard, I'd work hard with Austria or Russia and push the mun army east.

[Mardoc]

From what I understand your 4 options are:

eng-convoy, wal-bre
eng-convoy, wal-bel
eng-bre, wal-support
eng-bel, wal-support

Is that right?

I don't think wales can support, it's not adjacent to either belgium or brest.

So the first distinction is whether you convoy or attack straight up with your fleet. If you attack with fleet, then it's possible you get kicked out of the channel, though, if France gambles and goes MAO-Eng. On the other hand, if you convoy your army, then it's there to be a threat against Paris/picardy instead of wasting time in Wales, but still can be convoyed elsewhere if you want to flank. If France attacks the channel, what happens to a convoy? Is it disrupted?

The other piece I'm not sure about is how your build(s) and Nakor's come into this. Each fleet can only convoy one army, so it's possible a convoyed Wales army is stuck while you convoy a newly built army somewhere else.