WW #41. New Horizons.

[Lewwyn]

I think the best play is to just protect the confirmed townies, if somebody else dies that just narrows down our pool of suspects. Lockdown is paired with repositioning (commuting), which arguably is more valuable to confirmed villagers than jailing.

Okay, I'll just protect myself with repositioning then I guess.

OTOH you're not 100% confirmed so I don't know. :-)

I mean the point is if you don't do lockdown with me then we I can't be sure that the scum is actually blocked, meaning I should protect myself.

[Rowain]

@Serdoa

Yes I can. Especially because you linked it with me trying to set him up for lynch. I don't want to lynch him (yet) though. Because even though I'm sure he has a night-kill he is not a killer in the sense that he only wins as last man standing. Also he most likely can't kill every night, I believe the game is too small for two night-kills each night, even with all the abilities to save yourself or someone else.

Actually he might even have to collect certain programs (or just a certain amount) in order to win. It don't seem like we have certain roles so the only feature distinguishing one player from the other is the party he is aligned with and the programs he possesses. Actually, maybe Rowain doesn't even decide on a player to kill but instead on a program to retrieve and the player killed is randomly determined from all in possession of that program.

Anyhow, I do believe Rowain can kill, but I don't believe he is a killer.

The bolded part is where you were making things up. the whole is painting me black in a very backhanded way. "I don't believe he is a killer but maybe he steals and then the one he stole from dies". That is not misunderstanding, that is not misinterpretation that is plain simple trying to paint me as a dangerous killer without getting your hands too dirty.

[Gazglum]

Well this has been an interesting night phase, and I'm back to not being sure. Whoever is bad is playing it cool. Hopefully more info comes to light after the break.

I guess my only other thought is that I am not at all convinced by Rowain’s case on Serdoa, and less sure on Bacchus than I was on Zak. If one of the BGS triangle flips innocent, I would look again at the possibility of Lewwyn lying or having been fooled by a scan-immune character, not just automatically lynch whoever is left from BGS.

Taking Lewwyn's results into account, my suspect list at the moment is probably (from most likely to least likely final scum)

Bacchus > Serdoa > Lewwyn > Novice > Rowain > Adrien

If you assume godfather or discarded Lewwyn's result, then it would change quite a lot:

Novice > Lewwyn > Bacchus > Rowain > Adrien > Serdoa

Final Thoughts
Novice looked like he was being made the patsy by Zak, but he's also offered progressively less insight as the game goes on, and barely flickered an eyelid after the lynch.

Lewwyn has minimal posting, was distanced by Zak, but helped lynch Zak and offered the sensor scan.

Bacchus has posted super rationally, been involved a lot, but made the wrong calls when it counts, pushed back against Zak lynch and has the scan against him.

Adrien has felt like his normal self to me and has posted a lot.

Serdoa has felt very towny to me, but has the scan problem and was in a big fight with Zak right at the start that could have been distancing.

Rowain is confirmed not scum, unless he is a godfather. I thought he'd supported me on Zak, but in fact he switched to Serdoa at the end. Serdoa's fear that Rowain's special goal is to have him lynched is actually plausible to me.

SO basically, who knows? I'd need to look at Day 1 again to have any more insight. See you on the other side.

[novice]

I would flicker an eyelid, but it's hard to do without unbecomingly thumping my chest at the same time. For example, why don't I get credit for helping to lynch Zak, and for being the one to first suspect your current top suspect, Gaz?

I still think the remaining scum is Bacchus, fwiw.

[Bacchus]

Bacchus has posted super rationally, been involved a lot, but made the wrong calls when it counts, pushed back against Zak lynch and has the scan against him.

Exactly what are the wrong calls, besides preferring lynch candidates to Zak, something that is fully shared by Serdoa btw? Was not heedlessly lynching Brick the wrong call? Was not burning the sensor on N1 the wrong call? I'd say the latter is the most dubious, but questionable, rather than wrong. Even if that was wrong, it doesn't make a multiple.

Adrien has felt like his normal self to me and has posted a lot.

This is a very strange comment. Granted, I don't know what "normal" Adrien is like, but there has been plenty weirdness with what Adrien said and did. Haven't you even voted him at some point? Has all that now gone without a trace?

Novice looked like he was being made the patsy by Zak, but he's also offered progressively less insight as the game goes on, and barely flickered an eyelid after the lynch.

I frankly don't remember Novice offering insight at any point in the game. The two strongest things for him are lynching Zak, which you don't mention, and an early claim of abilities, which is hardly insight again.

Overall, your analysis doesn't ring true to me at all, and is very detached from the discussions that actually took place among the town.

My top pick remains Serdoa, though, I don't think I've seen enough to disbelieve the hypothesis of a correct Lewwyn scan.

No alternative suggestions came up on my use of polygraph, so I'm going ahead with what I suggested in the post above.

[AdrienIer]

I started thinking about Rowain's VC :
I'm not sure why he would want to lynch Serdoa in particular. It's a bitch move to Serdoa to give him an extra enemy with "Kill Serdoa" in his role MP. Only thing I can see is that he had to kill the guy with Serdoa's abilities (the pair with redirect and the pair with protection). Still weird. It's bad for town but I don't think he ever said his VC wouldn't harm town just that he didn't kill anyone and that in the end town would win even if he was still alive.

He could be a survivor with some kind of special condition, like never ending the day voting for the lynched guy.

Or perhaps it's all about his non-revealed powers, and he needs to tag someone each night and try to lynch them the next day. Or something. He implied that he had a certain number (not 4) of 1 shot powers like us so that's probably not it. Maybe each power is a different way to win, one for each day, and D2's objective was lynching Serdoa ?

Unlike the greek hero game where we had names to differentiate us we're only a username with a set of powers here, I don't see a poseidon-like event happening. And I doubt it will be really harmful to town except maybe by Rowain leaving the game at some time. Which would be just as well because we're an even number now.

[AdrienIer]

Actually I just noticed that Rowain had a 1.3 vote D2. I actually don't know what to make of that.

Adrien has felt like his normal self to me and has posted a lot.

This is a very strange comment. Granted, I don't know what "normal" Adrien is like, but there has been plenty weirdness with what Adrien said and did. Haven't you even voted him at some point? Has all that now gone without a trace?

I am the king of blunders. I've been a great candidate for lynch every game except maybe the first because people don't always understand my logic and think my posts are scummy (like the "I wouldn't do that as cum" post that almost got me killed a few games ago). Gaz has learned to see past the stupid blunders to spot the stupid townie behind it.

[Lewwyn]

Actually I just noticed that Rowain had a 1.3 vote D2. I actually don't know what to make of that.

I've been wondering if Rowain's VC is that he has to survive to the end without lynching anyone.

[Jabbz]

10m to deadline.

[Bacchus]

I'm worried about Rowain's VC for the same reason Serdoa is, albeit Serdoa I think is a bit reticent to voice this, even if he has done so in parts. The scum have a pretty tight set-up here, even with godfather and what-not roles — if it's all one-shot, it's a bit of a nightmare to execute and still luck-dependant. So it actually stands to reason that the third party has an anti-town VC. Whatever it is, it actually allowed Rowain to benefit town by giving them a re-direct target, a safe lynch and one less suspect. To be consistent with this play and not wreck and already difficult game for scum, it has to be pretty bad. Maybe not Rowain, but two people are taken out? Some kind of a lover thing?

Rowain, can your VC be fulfilled after you get lynched?