WW #41. New Horizons.

[Gazglum]

All I can say is that Jabbz moves in inscrutable ways. I don't want to be a distraction, so if it's going to impact anybody's voting then let me know and I will tell.

[Gazglum]

Bacchus, Adrien, did Jabbz give you a message saying your wasted abilities are used up?

[Serdoa]

Gaz, there are only two ability-pairs you could have tried to use (for several reasons). One pair I can't see how it would not be used up, because you would get a result, it would just be a meaningless one with Bacchus on Lockdown. The other pair has only one ability that made sense to use on Bacchus, but seeing as you were the only potential kill-target besides Rowain, I could not fathom why you would use that instead of the other one. Doesn't help if you get a result but can't tell anyone because you are dead.

[Bacchus]

That was a crap move lewwyn.

I disagree to the Nth degree. Allow me to explain my perspective.

Last night I was trying to figure out the best use of powers. What I really want is for scum to think I'm repositioning and then try to lockdown scum when they try to kill to figure out of they are scum or not. I was going for the 50/50 here. Explaning:

Village:
Me
Novice
Adrien
Gaz

3rd party no kill (Yes I believe that for now)
Rowain

Possible remaining scum:
Serdoa
Bacchus

Now for the 50/50 to work scum needs to believe that I am repositioning and not locking down. During the night I say it makes no sense to lockdown if novice doesn't do it with me. Hopefully scum believes I am repositioning. Then I simply choose between Bacchus and Serdoa to lockdown. If there's no night kill the one I locked down is most likely scum. If there is a night kill the other one is most likely scum.

I say most likely because, what if I block scum and Rowain has a kill? or I block scum and they decided to no kill (I think this is highly unlikely because they need to get a kill off, rather they might no kill the following night if not caught today.) I understand that there are outlier possibilities, but my choice results in the most likely scum.

I chose to lockdown Bacchus because he is my top scum suspect. If I had repositioned, I still would have voted Bacchus to start today anyway. I cannot reconcile his posts at the end of Day 2 about Zak and his reasoning not to vote Zak as a villager. So my vote for Bacchus is NOT simply because of the lockdown, though it only strengthens my beliefs. Additionally, why not use sensor instead of polygraph? Polygraph seems more easily faked and/or is more likely an ability scum might actually have a use for and thus have.

Honestly if you can't see why I'd do this, you're being stubborn and have blinders on, are irrationally upset that I didn't tell you what I was going to do at night or you are scum.

Lewwyn, you seem to fail to understand that if the scum is in the Serdoa-Bacchus pair, the town has already won. If scum are among your top suspects, your action did nothing to help town. The only way town can lose is if neither me, nor Serdoa are scum. And if that's the case, your action served the scum a silver-lined gift in two ways: by stopping Adrien from clearing me and himself, and by casting suspicions on yourself. It made absolutely no sense for your to jail me as town, there is exactly 0 upside and considerable downside. I don't believe you fail to see that.

Lewwyn if you thought that using polygraph is such a stupid idea, why didn't you say so, whilst you were online and "waiting for the fireworks"? I, reasonably, took silence on the issue, whilst people were posting about other things, for lack of objection. I may have overthought the situation, floated a questionable idea, and stuck to it by inertia, but instead of trying to figure out how best to use my powers, you decided to throw me in lockdown.

For us to do it at our leisure indicate that you assume that Serdoa would be the first to be lynch of the two of you. Since you will "not be available" (you may or may not) it appears that your idea of at our leisure requires Serdoa to be lynched first. So not only is this statement trying to blame me for you not having time, but it presupposes arrogantly that you would have time because Serdoa would be lynched first.

If something sounds like hysteria it's this, together with all the "fireworks", "bananas" and "Jeez why do you keep talking about killing me?"

Lynching "at our leisure" means without risk of loss -- if the scum is Serdoa, we can mislynch me and never break a sweat.

I reassessed my estimation of how much time town has after your action because my confidence in trusting your sensor claim tanked, together with the confidence that Serdoa is the remaining scum. Given that we have to account for possibility that your jailing was just a blunder, and that all three of you, me and Serdoa might be mislynches, that me and Adrien weren't cleared as we would have been without your lockdown, time for the town started looking pretty tight, as opposed to very comfortable.

Lewwyn, now you have heard from Zak, what do you think?

Jeez. Zakalwe is making this hard. I still think it could be Adrien. But reading Zak facsimile of logic is just making me crazy.

Lewwyn, can you explain how exactly you got on the Zakalwe lynch?

That was you final before votes started piling in.

[quote='Rowain' pid='561163' dateline='1443020105']
@Lewwyn I agree on Gazglum.

I find zak a good choice to lynch.

But who do you think is the missing scum Bacchus or Serdoa?

Leaning Serdoa

At what point did you stop leaning Serdoa?

[Bacchus]

Repost last bit to fix the broken quote

Lewwyn, now you have heard from Zak, what do you think?

Jeez. Zakalwe is making this hard. I still think it could be Adrien. But reading Zak facsimile of logic is just making me crazy.

Lewwyn, can you explain how exactly you got on the Zakalwe lynch?

Upon reread I'm not sure why I reacted so strongly to your other posts. I need time I don't have.

That was you final before votes started piling in.

@Lewwyn I agree on Gazglum.

I find zak a good choice to lynch.

But who do you think is the missing scum Bacchus or Serdoa?

Leaning Serdoa

At what point did you stop leaning Serdoa?

[AdrienIer]

Bacchus, Adrien, did Jabbz give you a message saying your wasted abilities are used up?

Yes

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn, you seem to fail to understand that if the scum is in the Serdoa-Bacchus pair, the town has already won. If scum are among your top suspects, your action did nothing to help town. The only way town can lose is if neither me, nor Serdoa are scum. And if that's the case, your action served the scum a silver-lined gift in two ways: by stopping Adrien from clearing me and himself, and by casting suspicions on yourself. It made absolutely no sense for your to jail me as town, there is exactly 0 upside and considerable downside. I don't believe you fail to see that.

If I prevented a nightkill, I helped the town. I also firmed my beliefs that you are scum. If you are scum and you killed Adrien last night, he would have been dead and you wouldn't be cleared anyway. Apparently, Serdoa could not protect Adrien. I don't fail to understand anything. I made a conscious choice for numerous explained reasons. Stop talking down to me in attempt to make me look stupid.

Lewwyn if you thought that using polygraph is such a stupid idea, why didn't you say so, whilst you were online and "waiting for the fireworks"? I, reasonably, took silence on the issue, whilst people were posting about other things, for lack of objection. I may have overthought the situation, floated a questionable idea, and stuck to it by inertia, but instead of trying to figure out how best to use my powers, you decided to throw me in lockdown.

Or the lack of fireworks as I hoped, which were exactly the fireworks I was looking for. Honestly, it wasn't clear to me what you were doing at night. I had no idea really. I only mentioned this as suspicious when you talked about it today after the fact. I wasn't going to try and tell other people what to do with their powers when I was planning a trap of my own.

If something sounds like hysteria it's this, together with all the "fireworks", "bananas" and "Jeez why do you keep talking about killing me?"

You must not know me very well. Reaching pretty hard aren't you?

Lynching "at our leisure" means without risk of loss -- if the scum is Serdoa, we can mislynch me and never break a sweat.

I would like to lynch the scum as fast as possible. This idea of leisure is misguided. If you take a lynch for granted in WW you will fail.

Lewwyn, now you have heard from Zak, what do you think?

Jeez. Zakalwe is making this hard. I still think it could be Adrien. But reading Zak facsimile of logic is just making me crazy.

Lewwyn, can you explain how exactly you got on the Zakalwe lynch?

Upon reread I'm not sure why I reacted so strongly to your other posts. I need time I don't have.

That was you final before votes started piling in.

I love this. You are now insinuating that I bussed Zak as a scumbuddy. Zak was not in any real danger at the time that I voted for him. Gaz was on him I was second. It is ridiculous that you say the votes came "piling in". We barely got there. novice join me, and then Adrien hopped on at the last second, but the votes were already in. If I were Zak's scumbuddy I would have moved to Serdoa when Zak moved. But I wasn't so I didn't. To bus my partner when there are only two scum is the worst scum play ever. I didn't move off of Zak and break the first three vote tiebreak over novice.

@Lewwyn I agree on Gazglum.

I find zak a good choice to lynch.

But who do you think is the missing scum Bacchus or Serdoa?

Leaning Serdoa

At what point did you stop leaning Serdoa?

The point at which I went back and read your posts. Before the lynch end I was not paying as much attention to Serdoa or you. I was focused on Adrien, novice, and Zak (Gaz by proxy).

[Bacchus]

Anyway, obviously Bacchus at this point. He has fallen back on probability, logical If>Then chains and the like without actually bulding a case on Serdoa or Lewwyn based on anything they've posted.

I only got the chance to look at Lewwyn's stuff now, just as you were posting. As for Serdoa, I'm pretty sure Serdoa himself will disagree that I haven't been building a case on him on what he actually posted. You are right that I have not collected this in a single post, because I thought people would be following, but I can recollect them for you convenience.

The reason I'm falling back on probability is Lewwyn's lockdown, without it, I would have been voting Serdoa without question, but I now I feel it's important to get as much out of Lewwyn as possible, to give us a handle on the situation.

To properly outline my position on everyone now, it's as follows:

1. Serdoa -- has been consistently posting and doing things which appeared scummy to me, I will repost my reasons for it below.
2. Lewwyn -- until recently a reasonable town read, now has done something that has really muddled my understanding of what's going. Potentially lying sensor, potentially tried to defend himself from my sensor. I want to get as much info from him as possible. Vote.
3. Adrien -- the guy I was hoping to mutually-clear with this night, before Lew's lockdown. If Lewwyn is still the truthful sensor, potential godfather. Play appears scummy to me, but is apparently consistent with general playstyle. As my suspicion relies on his blunders, not really on wrongdoing, low suspicion.
4. Gazglum -- had a general town read even before he started a massive push on Zak on D2. This push makes no sense as a scum move to me. No ability reports for two nights now. My biggest problem with him is that he seems to not read my posts when they matter. Ignores claims, ignores specific criticism of Serdoa's posts to present me as an "alluder".
5. Novice -- I consistently didn't like his play (again, I'm not alluding, I've had specific posts commenting on his play). This is the most likely candidate for the godfather.
6. Rowain -- another potential godfather candidate, but more of a troublesome wildcard that can mess with appears a certain thing for town. Contributed quite little, but seems to understand my posts better than others.

Purely in terms of reads, it's a toss-up between Novice and Serdoa: I'm pretty sure we have a godfather scum, but that doesn't mean it was used to hide a scum on the Brick lynch, and these two have read bad. With a godfather being/notbeing on the Zak lynch is something of a null read as well. Lewwyn's lockdown threw it all in the air though, as if Rowain leaves at any point, we don't have the time to lynch Serdoa, Lewwyn and Novice. Lewwyn is someone I have no handle on, hence the vote.

[Serdoa]

Bacchus, just a tip: Scumhunting works better if you hunt scum and not those that believe you are scum. If they line up, of course do so, but currently you just go for those you feel are easiest lynched (me on D2 what didn't work because I'm not, but you couldn't know that) or do see you as scum (Lewwyn, novice). Also, just calling everyone potential scum is not really helping at all. There is not a single player you feel is town, Gazglum is not listening to you, Adrien makes weird posts, Lewwyn doesn't act as you would, Serdoa is scum anyway, novice could be a godfather... you keep all options open.

@Gazglum: I don't get your insistence on not revealing what you did. I think it could help shed some light, also because I have a hunch about ability combinations in case of townies and would like to be able to find out more.

[Gazglum]

Ok Serdoa, I'll answer you when I hear from Bacchus. Bacchus - did you lose your sensor/polygraph ability last night after Lewwyn's action?

If you have answered this, I do apologise. I don't know why I keep missing points you've made. I think it's because I wasn't focused on you first two days and I've been busy today.