[PB59] Lazteuq worries for the endangered lurker species

[Lewwyn]

What's the plan with the settler out of the cap? DO you have a longer term idea of your goals?

[Lazteuq]

That settler is going straight south of the capitol, by the spices and copper. I'll have workers positioned to immediately chop out a granary.
You might be wondering when I'll settle up against GKC in the north. I have no such plans because I like our border as it is.

I'm not planning anything violent right now. I'm behind in military tech now, and I think any attack before machinery is unlikely. I hope to rapidly develop my economy as cities grow large under Serfdom+HR. My vision for this empire is large production-focused cities working lots of farms, windmills, and watermills.The goal is to out-tech a neighbor and profit from a 2v1 in the medieval era. The target will probably be Charriu since he's already weakened. As I see it now, I haven't fallen too far behind yet. The odds are slim of course, but I'm certainly playing to win. Not like PB56 where I'd stopped playing to win by turn 80 or so.
There are still probably about 6 more sites I could settle. I'd been avoiding building new cities, but now is a good time to start again. Workers are starting to get bored and I can afford the maintenance cost now.

I've been involved in 5 or 6 wars, but had very few actual combats. It's weird.
Charriu declared war on me right as the treaty ended, but I think he just wanted to get rid of my scouting Immortal. He managed to corner it against the coastline with Phalanxes so I deleted it. I think he's got about 6 metal units near our border, but it would take them another 4 turns or so to regroup and be a threat. I think I'll ask for peace next turn.

[Lazteuq]

TURN 100
Monarchy has arrived! Breakeven beakers went from 51 to 73. Here are the demos at breakeven (40%):


I want to get metal casting soon, because I like forges and because there are 13 or so forests that I've reserved for lumbermills. Also triremes are cool. It's probably more important to get Math for Construction and Currency though. 5 known civs already have math, and 1 has currency.

I've encountered Commodore's praets besieging TBS's island city of Tianjin. TBS is doing extremely well and he just got the Mausoleum. Maybe I should launch a naval strike on him... I bet he wouldn't expect it if I hit him early enough. On the other hand, he's been friendly and I have no specific reason to harm him other than maintaining balance of power.
Miguelito/Rusten are also doing very well, making 134 gpt with their 15 cities and Colossus FIN coast. I'm sending a workboat to find them.

I offered Charriu a peace treaty and a cease fire. He's trying to hunt down my lone axeman but I don't really care.
I sort of wanted to stay at war with Charriu because I want him to be afraid of an attack. He doesn't have vision on Humpback, so he must be wary.

In another 5 turns, I think I'll switch out of OR to save civic costs.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 103

INTRUDER ALERT! Charriu has a stack 2 tiles SW of Humpback with 3 phalanxes and 4 axes. Defending I have 3 axes, 2 immortals, and a spear. I'll finish walls this turn, and the city is on a hill. Two of the axes have shock, the Immortals have Combat 1, and the spear will probably get Shock too. I'm pretty confident I can hold him back. I think he might just retreat when he sees what he's up against. Or, he might start pillaging my land.

I'm a bit disappointed that my economy still is just barely above average. I guess I should be content with that since I had no early traits, but I feel like I should have more cities right now.
I have been underestimating the value of trade routes. Once I get currency, every one of my cities should get 2 3-commerce connections. That's enough to pay maintenance already! I'm still about 10t from currency unfortunately.

I'm really unsure who to spend EPs on. I think the most natural option is to keep spending just enough to get demos on everyone I meet, but honestly I don't care very much about the demos of distant civilizations. I could spend heavily on GKC as he's doing to me, but that doesn't feel very effective either.

Based on the food and power graphs, I think Ramk and Mjmd's death battle has ruined both of them, without a clear winner. Hopefully one of them can be easy pickings for me in the future.

My wandering galley made contact with Amicalola through Commodore's land. Commodore's naming convention beats TBS any day of the week.
Here's what I can see of that area:

[Lazteuq]

Turn 104: INTRUDER ALERT...AGAIN!

GKC has 6 keshiks and an axe approaching. I might have enough units nearby to effectively defend Steller and Bowhead, not sure.
If he goes straight for Steller, I think I'll be OK. Steller is on a hill, with 20% defense. It will have 2 spears and an immortal defending. I'll have 2 more spears and an immortal in position to block him, or pre-emptively attack his stack. I think he underestimated my forces. For all I know there might be another stack of keshiks in the fog though...
That keshik movement bonus is huge with all these jungles and forests and hills. Putting a road on the cow tile was probably a mistake, because it's neutral territory so he can use it.
If I had noticed earlier in playing the turn, I would have brought more workers to the front to defensively road and chop. Mistakes have been made.
I'm really glad I had a Spearman at 34/35 hammers ready in Steller, waiting for exactly this kind of situation!

Next turn I'll be able to change civics. I think I may need to revolt to slavery to deal with GKC. I'll definitely switch out of OR anyway.

Charriu saw the defenders in Humpback and offered peace. After thinking for a while, I decided to re-offer peace. I think staying at war would lead to mutual destruction. I really can't afford to stay at war now that GKC is attacking. Their coordination was good, but not good enough. 

My economy took a pretty big hit from focusing on production and leaving some cities undefended, causing angry citizens. Breakeven bpt is now only 60.
I founded a new city called Sei on the western coast, near Ramk/Mjmd. I'm worried about GKC trying to snipe it though, if he already has a galley in the area.
In more peaceful news, I get a great scientist next turn!

[Lazteuq]

I put 2 spears and 2 immortals on defense in Steller. If GKC chooses to attack it with 6 keshiks, VODKA says he has 20% odds. Instead, I think he probably moved south to fork Steller and Bowhead. I positioned a spear and an immortal to block him, but he might just run over them. He has more keshiks approaching of course. I'll post another annotated map next turn.

Ramk messaged me saying we are at war. He says he took a city from me! If it's Sei, that's no big deal. If it's Hectors or Bottlenose, that's a pretty severe impact. Both those cities were defended with nothing but warriors.

Overall, I'd say this situation feels pretty sketchy.
I switched out of OR last turn but did not go back to Slavery. I know that was a risky move and I might already be regretting it. Now I'm stuck in Serfdom for 5 more turns.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 106:
Ramk hit Hector's with a 5-move galley carrying 2 axemen! I don't know if that really helps him or not, but whatever. Pillage gold is always nice. I'm surprised he spent a GG on a galley, but I guess I'm in no position to criticize! Strangely, he didn't raze Hector's. I'm not sure if that's kindness, or him trying to send a message, or if he just misclicked. He's about to take Sei with an axe, which will autoraze. Nothing I can do about that.
Coincidentally, it looks like Commodore took one of TBS's cities with a galley on the same turn! Also I discovered Joshy is attacking TBS as well.

When I opened the game, GKC had 7 keshiks threatening Bowhead. I was able to bring in 2 C2 Spears, 3 C1 immortals, and a C1 axe. I then killed one of his keshiks with a C2 spear. Vodka says his odds to take Bowhead are now about 1%. Here's the map: (workers not shown)

I spent a while thinking about ways to sacrifice workers to "absorb" a keshik attack, but he has an extra keshik in the back to take care of that, so I didn't bother.
In the unlikely event that GKC captures Bowhead, I am confident that I can recapture it. I guess the question is: Do GKC's Mongols actually want to take territory, or just raze and pillage? I think his invasion force was too small to be a serious attempt at conquest.
I have workers building roads south of Steller in case GKC decides to try and snipe my capitol with the keshiks.
Unless GKC brings in another attack force, I feel like I can survive this pretty well. So far, the economic damage is pretty mild.

I sent Commodore a fish4fish, partly to ease concerns about my wandering galley on his coast, but mostly because I think we should cooperate against TBS.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 107.
I must say Ramk is very confusing. Back in PB51 I remember being confused as well. First, he snipes Hectors but doesn't raze it. Then, he's in a position to take Sei with no opposition, but instead evacuates his axeman. But then he doesn't offer peace! Maybe he wants to wait until Sei reaches size 2 so it won't autoraze? I feel like there is some kind of trap here if I retake Hectors. Well, I did it anyway. I offered Ramk a peace treaty too.

I know GKC has research vision on me, so I swapped to Construction in 4 turns. Hopefully that scares him into accepting my peace offer. I'd really like to be researching Currency right now. (I don't actually have enough gold to complete it in 4 turns, but he doesn't know that...)

GKC didn't try attacking Bowhead. He did move two keshiks forward and pillage a farm and a pasture before deleting them. I don't understand why, maybe he's just annoyed. He pillaged my horses, but that's not a big impact.

I won't bother making an annotated map this turn, but basically I put defenders on the forested hills between Steller and Bowhead so GKC can't easily fork the cities. He can burn through those forest defenders if he wants, but then there won't be enough keshiks left to do anything. He has 7 keshiks which might be relevant next turn, with a spear and keshik farther back.

If I actually do get construction in 5 turns, I think I'll be able to defend pretty effectively against GKC. If Charriu attacks right as the treaty runs out, then I'll have a big problem.

[Lazteuq]

GKC has a galley approaching from the northeast, I expect to lose Ringed by amphibious attack next turn. Switching back to slavery could have prevented this. As it is now, Ringed has no defenders and I don't have a galley nearby.

GKC sent 4 of his best-promoted Keshiks toward Hectors. I killed 2 with spears, then used 2 suicidal immortals to weaken the other 2, and finally brought the last one to 1/6 hp. This enabled me to reconnect horses. Now there are 4 healthy keshiks remaining, all threatening Steller. I think he has no chance of taking it for the next 3 turns at least.

I think Ramk will use his 5-move galley to threaten my western cities again this turn. He's got open borders with GKC so he's using the port of Otrar.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 109-Peace with GKC! Since he took peace, I assume that means the galley I saw was empty. My defense in this war was about 1 spearman away from defeat. Too close for comfort. If GKC had brought in 2 more keshiks, I probably would have lost a city.
Anyway, the timing is good: Charriu has 5 turns remaining before he can declare war. I'm concerned about him hitting Humpback again, especially now that he can see into the city. I need to bring units south ASAP. Charriu's power growth has closely followed mine. The big difference compared to the last war is I expect boats this time.

Now that I have peace with GKC, I switched off Construction back to currency, which should take 5 turns.
I realized that GKC is ORG so his cheap courthouses mean I have basically no chance of catching up to him in an espionage race. Instead, I'll spend EPs on Mig/Rusten since they're big and they're not spending against me at all.

Sei is still under threat by Ramk and there's not much I can do about it. My units are all needed in the south against Charriu. I'll try offering Ramk peace again next turn, but I guess he has no reason to accept.

I was hoping to wait until Metal Casting to run Slavery/OR and whip forges, but maybe I'll switch before then.