Do they know that we know that they know that we know that they know ...?

[pling]

Pirates got a score increase of 6 points, indicating a tech, & their soldier points went up by 2k. I believe this is Animal Husbandry.

Rival GNP dropped to 17 - which is probably Pirates as well, if they had a GNP of 19 while they were researching AH (which has a pre-req).

[pling]

Gillette finished a tech and gained 2k soldier points, probably Animal Husbandry. Could also have been Sailing, but I find that less likely given they're not actually on the coast. Rival lowest GNP dropped 16, which is likely them now they're not researching a tech with a pre-req.

There's been some tile swapping compared with the last few turns, rival lowest production is now 2 instead of 1. And rival highest GNP is now 22, this replaces the previous rival highest of 21 (we're still 2nd when we have a GNP of 20). I can construct a putative sequence for what we've seen so far till T10, but I'm not really sure how to make 22 fit into it. Here's a thought, though:

TEAM = working a 1c tile, first researched hunting (GNP 19) which finished T5 then a tech with a pre-req (GNP 21) until T10. On T11 might have GNP of 22 (+1c or have met 2 civs that know the tech they're researching. Which could mean they're researching AH and have met both the Pirates & Gillette, except they've got 2 pre-reqs for AH (Agri & Hunting) so that would be wrong again ).

Gillette = working a 0c tile, researching AH (GNP 18) finishing T11. GNP is 16 with no tech selected.

Pirates = working a 1c tile, researched AH (GNP 19) finishing T10. GNP was 17 with no tech selected. Could be 17 or 19 (or 22? hard to make them get as high as 22) on T11.

Menagerie = GNP of 17 till T4, could be 18 or 19 T5 to T6, could be 18, 19 or 20 T6 -> T10, could be anything on T11. Got to wait for them to get a tech & then maybe I can make some guesses.

Anyone any ideas? I'm starting to go round in circles.

[darrelljs]

I'm starting to go round in circles.

Don't feel bad, I started there .

I think the conclusions on tech has the most value, and it seems like you have the most confidence in that area.

Darrell

[plako]

My guess is that Menageri has 22. In case they settled on wines and are researching AH they've met someone with AH. Basically they've:

+2 culture
+4 EP
+11 Palace+start
+1 Flood plain
+1 extra beaker

20% is changed to 26% that is enough to give 1 extra beaker.

[plako]

Darrel could you please keep score visible in the shots.

[pling]

Right, that makes sense. And changes what I think is happening with TEAM - here's a new possible scheme:

TEAM = working a 1c tile; researched hunting (till end T5) and now another tech w/ no pre-req. GNP of 19 throughout.

Menagerie = settled on Wines working a 1c tile; GNP of 19 T0 -> T5 as didn't apply beakers to tech until T6. GNP of 21 T6 -> T10, researching a tech w/ a pre-req. GNP of 22 T11 as they now know a Civ w/ the tech they are researching. Could have met Gillette back on T8 when HAK was asking about emails (Gillette email was also not published at that point, we just used our wits & used a forum PM to contact them iirc?). Or met Pirates or Gillette T11 (and TEAM on T8). I think they met Gillette coz that would explain how Gillette have a decent idea where we are - we're not where Menagerie are. I need to work out how many beakers they have if this is all true & thus what techs they may or may not be researching, but I haven't time right now.

Gillette = working a 0c tile; GNP of 18 while researching AH, finished T11 & GNP dropped to 16.

Pirates = working a 1c tile; GNP of 19 while researching AH, finished T10 & their GNP dropped to 17 with no tech selected. Can't tell if researching a tech w/ a pre-req or not.

[pling]

OK, I think if we're right about Menagerie's GNP/tech choice/meetings then they're messing about with the tech to hide their research, otherwise they'd've finished Animal Husbandry at the end of T9.

So they could've been doing 5 turns of one or more non-pre-req techs (T1->T5), possibilities are Mysticism & Archery (6 turns total required); Agri & The Wheel (7 turns total required). Then from T6->T11 they have been doing a pre-req tech, possibly 6 of the required 10 turns for AH. The extra beaker for meeting someone wouldn't make a difference in the time taken to research AH.

That all feels like extrapolating too far on the basis of too little information, and I should double check my beakers against tech calculations.

Also, if we're right about the GNP of 22 (and previously of 21) being Menagerie not TEAM, then TEAM's current possible research targets are: Fishing, Mysticism, Mining. And all of those should've finished by now, so they must be tech switching too ... this whole thing feels far too fragile and full of assumptions

[spellman]

Oh my. People are counter-EP via teach switching??? Sheesh.

Although if you don't need it for a resource in your BFC, makes sense to delay a few turns.

[pling]

Is meeting one neighbour enough to get an extra beaker? I'm not sure any more.

I'm using this page to get the formula. But quite possibly I'm misunderstanding somewhere along the line or making a dumb mistake, so I'll show my working here It says:

Calculating the Known Civilizations w/ Tech modifier

1) Multiply 0.30 by the number of KNOWN, LIVING civilizations, who have the tech.

2) Divide by the number of civilizations which STARTED on the map and ROUND DOWN to the hundredth place (0.01) of the quotient.

3) Add 2) to 1

Tech Known by Civilizations modifier = 1 + RDDW (0.30 * # known Civs who have the tech / # of Civs who started the game

So:

Code:

0.3 * 1 = 0.3

0.3/5 = 0.06 which needs no rounding down.

0.06 + 1 = 1.06

Skipping the prerequistes modifier the next bit is

Calculating the Actual Amount of Beakers Generated Toward a Tech

To calculate the amount of beakers which you generate toward the technology:

1) Take the total sum of beakers generated by all your cities (the result from the basics part).

2) Add 1 to it if you have a city.

3) Multiply 2) by the Known Civilizations w/ Tech modifier and take the FLOOR of the product.

4) Multiply 3) by Prerequisites modifier and take the FLOOR of the product.

The formula to calculate the amount of beakers applied to your technology is:

Beakers applied to Technology = FLOOR (FLOOR ((Total Base Beakers + 1) * KCwT modifier) * Prerequisites modifier)

So if the number of base beakers is 11 (for Menagerie on wines working a floodplain) we have:

Code:

12+1 = 13

13 * 1.06 = 13.78

FLOOR(13.78) = 13

And then you calculate the pre-requisites.

Or if it's TEAM instead it's:

Code:

10+1 = 11

11 * 1.06 = 11.66

FLOOR(11.66) = 11

So basically I think we need someone to have met two civs, when the calculations work out as:

Code:

modifier:

0.3 *2 = 0.6

0.6/5 = 0.12

0.12 + 1 = 1.12

---
12+1 = 13

13 * 1.12 = 14.56

FLOOR(14.56) = 14

Or analagous for TEAM (ending up with 12 beakers).

If I've not screwed up, then I think that means that the GNP of 22 must be either TEAM or Menagerie having met both Pirates & Gillette and are currently researching AH.

I also think it must be Menagerie (again if I'm right about previous things) - if TEAM have researched Hunting they have both optional pre-reqs for AH and would therefore have a higher GNP (23 pre-meeting a second civ, 24 afterwards).

This would mean TEAM are researching another no-pre-req tech (GNP must be lower than 20), if it's just one I think they would've finished it by now if they were - 6 turns to research Fishing; 7 turns for Mining or Mysticism. Given they finished a tech at end of T5 they'd be done by end of T12.

And as I said in a previous post, it'd also mean Menagerie were tech-switching otherwise AH would be done by now.

Does this make sense? Can anyone poke holes in my logic or maths? Or provide other explanations?

[novice]

Good work. I'm sure there are alternatives to your hypothesis (most notably with a non-mirrored map) but I don't see anything immediately wrong with your work. Not that I've dived into the numbers myself.