[SPOILERS] DaveV: The vampire bites! Goodbye level 9.

[DaveV]

The eastern barb moved onto the cows, like a nicely herded sheep. Thanks to the first strike chance from Raiders, I have slightly better than the usual coinflip odds:



This is actually a pretty big deal; over the course of the game, I expect to win several combats I would have lost otherwise; a hidden advantage of Decius.

Note the scorpion to the east. I'd been thinking about going for Hunting early; the availability of a scorpion to give a +1 poison weapon buff to my hunters confirms that decision. Meanwhile, he can fogbust for me .

But I'm sure you want to know how the combat came out:



Score.

Meanwhile, the barbs are advanciing on my capital and I have two bloodpets on the way to reinforce:



I expect the western barb to move E across the river, and the southern barb to move N onto the western oasis. Unmolested, the barbs will always follow the same automove path towards the nearest city, so you can predict their path reliably after watching a few (or playing a sandbox).

Demos seem to show the same number of enemy troops, but a population growth for the highest rival power (or maybe the loss of a scout and a built warrior, but Occam's razor and all that).

[DaveV]

The barbs are trying to make me look bad; neither one moved as I expected. New prediction: they'll stack up on the plains tile west of the capital or on the oasis SW of the capital. Two new visitors have appeared. My overbuilding of bloodpets is justified.




My victorious warrior promoted to combat I and shock. Conventional wisdom says you should save your promotions, but I want to heal him up for the next wave. As for the shock promotion, it seems obvious to me. There are only two types of barbs that can enter my territory:

Goblin: 2 str, can't pillage. Combat II odds: 99.4%. Combat I + Shock odds: 97.6%.
Warrior: 3 str, can pillage. Combat II odds: 89.5% . Combat I + shock odds: 96.9%.

So Combat II gives me marginally better odds against the less dangerous unit, while Combat I + Shock gives me significantly better odds against the more dangerous unit. Pretty easy choice.

Demos show that the fifth player has finally settled a second city. Graphs show that Thoth is both the highest rival GNP and the highest power. Worryiing. The low power number is probably two warriors and a scout. That's just asking for a good pillaging by the barbs (and possibly a lucky city kill).

[DaveV]

I was wrong again about the barb movement. Apparently differences in terrain in my sandbox resutl in a differnt path. One of the orc warriors attacked my bloodpet on the wines, and:



Flawless win, for 3 xp!

If the barbs want to move onto the wine tile, whom am I to stand in their way?



After taking this screenshot, I moved my scout into the stack north of the river, leaving a single bloodpet in the capital. I sent one of the reinforcing bloodpets back to Bag of Holding, since there's another barb warrior incoming there:



I expect him to move onto the forest south of the city where an attack with my shock warrior only gives about 80% odds. That probably means he'll do something completely different.

Demos show people switching to production at the expense of GNP and food:

[DaveV]

Once again, the barbs fooled me. This is turning into an ongoing theme. Since I don't want to attack across the river, I send my combat 1 bloodpet against the goblin to grab another shock promotion:



He won, but is damaged down to 1.6. I expect the barbs to stack up west of the capital next turn, but I left a couple warriors in position to defend the wines tile. As I said earlier, this river makes my defense a lot harder. In the east, the barb warrior did exactly what I expected, so I moved the shock warrior across the river. Look, Mr. Barb: an undefended floodplains farm! Wouldn't you like to pillage it? My prediction: no. He'll spend a turn gathering his courage, then attack ithe city.



Total soldier power dropped by 1000. Heh.

[DaveV]

Need I say that the barbs did the unexpected again?



1xp for the guy in the capital on a hill; 2xp for the guy in Bag of Holding on flat land. Both are at full strength at the start of my turn.

The second barb at the capital moved onto the wines tile. The 53% battle again works out in my favor. Another barb warrior is coming for me to try my shock promotion.



This is an unfair part of the game. If I'd lost these coinflip battles, I'd be scrambling to build more warriors and still fighting at low odds.

In the east, there's a barb goblin incoming. I moved my scout over to attack him (under the warrior north of the capital, although it doesn't show in this screenshot.



I *really* want that scorpion. If I can recruit him onto the team, strength 3 scouts are good enough to do some exploring and animal capturing. Since Education came in at EoT, I'm going to revolt to Apprenticeship so my scouts get an extra starting boost on their way to 5xp. I put a turn into a scout at the capital; I'll finish him under Aristocracy. To be safe, I want to get three scouts with the subdue animal promotion, so I'll be churning out a few scouts now.

Demos are terrible. Both cities are at their happy cap and emphasizing hammers. Rival power is still ridiculously low.

[DaveV]

Today's key battle: the scout who already has 2xp from cleaning up Thoth's scout vs. a barb goblin.



My good combat luck continues:



Meanwhile, in the west, there's lots more XP walking around:



I revolted to Apprenticeship, as I said:



The revolt was not good for my demos. Rival power goes up by 4000. I guess I'm not the only one getting good luck with the RNG.

[NobleHelium]

Revolting to apprenticeship does not affect your demos...

[DaveV]

Revolting to apprenticeship does not affect your demos...

I meant the 0% for GNP. Which is only during my turn, of course. But thanks for the +1.

New turn: time to take one of my shock-promoted bloodpets for a test drive:



Did the RNG decide this is the time to pay me back for my favorable results so far with a low-odds loss?



Nope.

Overview: another goblin incoming in the east. I'm trying the herding trick again to get another 75% scout attack on the cows tile. My workers complete my first cottage.




Demos are still bad. Too many units, no commerce specials, saving gold. The bad guys have nearly caught up in population.

[DaveV]

Double post.

[DaveV]

The goblin moved onto the tile as requested, and:



Shazam.

Meanwhile, in the west, the warriors move in and another goblin appears. Fresh meat.



Rival power is flat. My huge army is killing me economically.