[PB37 SPOILER] Coeurva, Bacchus -- Cyrus of Carthage

[Coeurva]

T115

Graphs on dtay. His power is lower than ours, Savant's, or Mongolia's -- at least at this point. I forgot whether I decided to put EP on Joey or Gavagai in the end; I think it was the latter. Gavagai has been on fourteen cities for a while. I looked for barracks in his cities, but there are disappointingly few; I was hoping he'd be building up.

Savant is settling his nineteenth city (maybe X17b). I still think he's overextending, he can't possibly defend all these cities against concentrated strikes; we should build a sword fleet for the eastern sea (and add 1-2 triremes to it).

Yuri seems to have a settler running around near our border, probably wanting to settle north of the sheep, two tiles from Zodiac Spire. Makes him an even more attractive target. Can also see two axes, a spear, and two workers pasturing the sheep.

Research set to Compass; cothon double-whips will bring +7 commerce at every city that can do them (we'll have 5-6 of those), which means more turns at a higher research slider; six turns to go; also frees up cities building wealth right now, and we're running out of sensible stuff to build on some of the islands already. If everyone closes borders in reaction, we'll open them with GermanJoey (actually, that could be useful in any case; cothons mean we're not getting ripped off by the GLH nearly as much as anyone else, which gives Joey a disincentive to try naval attacks at Foals/Sherry). HE finishes eoT119.

For Moai, we'll need to settle the stone near Yuri, requiring some more units since he does have a presence in that sea. I'm not sure how we're supposed to strike at Krill; he could spot any attack coming from 3t away and can build 3-promo melee units right now (there's a C4 axe inside Foxglove, the city he's just founded). If Savant beats us to X17b, I'll direct the settler into that sea instead to settle either near Krill, or the safer but weaker city near Maudlin Sphinx.

Should we send fish/fish to Gavagai, and if yes, when? Too early, and we might give away our intent to attack Yuri (the Heroic Epic might be rather clear on that as well, but is easier to overlook) but too late, and Savant / Krill might hardly notice or have time to react by building military over more settlers, which would be the point.

Tentative research path: Compass (eoT121) -> Construction (eoT125) -> HBR (eoT128) -> CoL (if Confu still available) / Metal Casting (eoT132) -> Machinery or Feudalism (+prereqs) or Drama/Music?

[Bacchus]

We can strike at islands with CR2 swords which take down pretty much anything. In any case, Savant is just as able to build double promo melee units, so it's not a difficulty peculiar to Krill. Taking over Savants cities would also work, but it puts us at a much greater risk in terms of land invasion.

I also meant striking as in blockading and sinking ships, preventing/discouraging settles in our seas. If we can isolate an island from reinforcements, then we can always take it, unless it's a one-tile one.

Do we need to get construction for colloseums before compass? I feel like we may be overinvesting in GNP whereas we need to muster up an army to exploit openings for strategic expansion.

[Coeurva]

We can strike at islands with CR2 swords which take down pretty much anything.

2 CR2 ("+Shock" to simulate RtR) swordsmen vs. 1 C4 axe at 25% fortify, 20% cultural defense on a hill: 67% odds of capture. If Krill adds an unpromoted archer, those chances go down to about 5%.

We will need more units than Krill in that sea, and he has at least three cities there already.

In any case, Savant is just as able to build double promo melee units, so it's not a difficulty peculiar to Krill. Taking over Savants cities would also work, but it puts us at a much greater risk in terms of land invasion.

While true, once we border dtay, which will happen sooner or later, we're wedged in between two prospective invaders just as well.

I also meant striking as in blockading and sinking ships, preventing/discouraging settles in our seas. If we can isolate an island from reinforcements, then we can always take it, unless it's a one-tile one.

That'll need Metal Casting. We don't have the production on that sea to swarm Krill with galleys, nor the workforce to plant forts yet.

Do we need to get construction for colloseums before compass? I feel like we may be overinvesting in GNP whereas we need to muster up an army to exploit openings for strategic expansion.

Sure, that's sensible. I was thinking that the first few units could gain their XP from fighting the barbs at X17a; my concern is that Mr. Nineteen Cities must be due to research Currency any turn now, which will easily allow him to surpass our GNP afterwards, and that our GNP isn't actually that good right now (although it surpasses JR4/Ref's, and maybe Gavagai's and Joey's).

There's little overlap between cities that will build colosseums and cities that will (or can) build cothons in either case -- only Ignis and Whitehall (perhaps Styx) can benefit from both. One advantage of early Construction is that we can whip away Vermin's size11 sooner and profitably, though.

[Coeurva]

T116.

International news: Savant has opened borders with Krill (...) and Donovan as well; we have a galley next to Krill's currently-empty city of Bates Motel; Savant keeps single Shock spears for garrisons throughout his island cities (or so it seems from what we can see); JR4/Ref have a better GNP than us as well (everyone has, except Savant and Joey), and Yuri has founded Rostov 447 of Zodiac Spire and is chopping something (galley, I'd bet, but let's see), which incidentally will be our first target.

Someone has 272,000 soldiers, up from 262,000, but we still lead the visible graphs in Power at ~256,000. If it's Joey, he's presumably massing horse archers -- he doesn't have iron and a rather low gpt (most likely, he's just intentionally hovering above break-even).

Domestic news: We can speed up the Heroic Epic by a turn if we chop that forest CML pre-chopped some 40t earlier, I think (which is kind of amusing). The GLib cascade is underway; we'll whip the market on T118 and overflow ~110h (before modifier) into the thing as planned. We might have to twist a few cities to grab Construction within 2t.

I think we should tech Compass after Construction, especially if Savant leaves X17b to us. Maintenance is getting really painful -- without wealth builds, our break-even would be ~20%. Courthouses wouldn't help as much (more expensive, less effective).

[Bacchus]

Maybe getting Savant's cities, especially if we can do it cheaply is a good stepping stone to outproducing Krill at sea, but I'm kind of wary that once Krill is established it will be difficult to unseat him, whilst currently we may have a window of opportunity. But perhaps Savant offers a bigger one in any case, he has lower power than Krill now and stretched more thinly.

I also prefer Compass over CoL now I think, we have a looot of beakers to go to open up Astro, and we want to get Feudalism in there too. It would be nice to line it all up -- GA, National Epic city properly grown, production going full steam in colloseumed cities, Cowish running scientists.

[Coeurva]

I think you're right about Krill being the better target, and that he'll only entrench himself further if left alone; but it seems that Krill can ultimately do less damage to us from his position than Savant, and it's looking likely that we'll have to fight both of them in this game, if perhaps only in the distant future.

From his notably thrifty diplomacy towards us (in contrast to how equitably he deals with everyone else), I don't think that Savant considers us a long-term ally; and apart from the Khatunate, we appear to be the best target (the Gavagai border is too narrow and well-fortified on both sides; Joey seems to be allied). However, Savant has an advantage at sea that he might want to push, and the front with Mongolia is even wider than with us; if Joey is building up against the Khatunate, Savant might very well consider poaching the islands long before anyone else could take them. We'll know more once we get graphs on Gavagai and can see who his the current soldiers leader (in before it's Donovan); that'll also be a good point to decide on aligning more closely with him (OB).

In any case, the current peace is convenient to him while he amasses settlers and takes the eastern sea, where he still has lots of room. It will be convenient for us if it continues into the war with Yuri, but there's no guarantee of that, and he doesn't rely on us to provide ICTR anymore, either.

The nightmare scenario for us would entail an attack from both dtay and Savant while we have enough on our hands with Krill, with Gavagai not interested in any war. That front would be ridiculously wide even if Joey held still, and I wouldn't count on Mongolia to help us, either.

In lining up all our targets that you've mentioned, the most difficulty will come from getting up the National Epic. We still have a forest to chop into it, and can work up to three mines (two of them food-neutral) and grab some overflow, but I'm not sure if it can actually finish by ~T140 as I had thought at first. I'll try to work out something once the granary has been whipped there.

Whitehall will produce the next Great Person around T140 by whipping a market soon. Not what this city would enjoy the most (wealth or units would be better); but it allows Sicil to take back the mines and one of the cows to produce units at ~20hpt, and Cowish Rhapsody to delay scientist turns to the GA (which is most efficient), when we shall produce two GScis in quick succession (the other at the Nat. Epic site via Caste; need workers to remodel the food resource mines at that point, too).

Colosseums will have been installed in all cities that need them (10+ hpt) by ~T125. perhaps excluding Styx, which still needs barracks (but can build them quickly), as it's currently building wealth.

[Coeurva]

T117



Another day...

Our galley is carrying a settler. If Savant's galley is/has been doing the same, he'll found his twentieth city soon (there's another settler near Sorpigal). I still think he couldn't actually defend against us 20t from now, but particularly not against xbows. EDIT: Then again, he can probably 1t HBR anyway. Yeah, let's take on Yuri.

If there had been any unit on our galley, we could have razed empty Bates Motel (size5) of Krill's... and perhaps Hemlock as well. I think he's figured out that the galley is empty, though (if only because I'd have double-moved him on this turn otherwise) and just pulled back the garrisons to deny us scouting knowledge.

Yuri has found Crested Eyrie (south-westernmost city) via work boat... There's a shock chariot and unpromoted archer on that island, and the city is on a hill, and Yuri still lacks iron; I think it can hold its own, particularly after hooking up its second-ring seafood. Pomewater will supply one of the boats.



The market is quite unnecessary if you can live with a T145 GP, but I think we'd like to have him sooner.



Joey fired his own Golden Age. He's also built his Moai in Heavenly Star.



Glory days are over. I don't know how Savant is doing it, building wealth + being AGG? We'll turn on science next turn.



EDIT: dtay came knocking for Open Borders again (and offered 2 gpt alongside). Not that I care to boost his research to Machinery and Guilds, though, so I declined. Him gearing up for war is plain to see; I doubt his target is Mongolia (although perhaps it is, if Joey is aiming for them as well).

[Bacchus]

Wow, super unlucky on that galley spawn, they are very sparse. I assume our galley can at least move over to protect the nets? Would have to dump the settler, but c'est la vie.

Savant must just have had his entire empire on Research in the run-up to Currency.

47 behind in crop yield is rather impressive. What are the victory screen population numbers?

[Bacchus]

The less than 0.5% deficiency on land is enough to put us into sixth place.

Dtays core has cities size 12-10-10-9-9-9-9

[Coeurva]

We can't protect the net, because the barb galley moves eot, and the net isn't so important to risk a 30% chance of losing a settler (even then we'd have to hope that the galley attacks ours, rather than moves to pillage). Better to whip a new boat at Westward later.

World's population: us at 12.58% (I think), dtay leading at 14.00% rounded down (Savant is leading in Land Area) EDIT: off by 0.01% -- as a German I'm inconsolable

One reason for our low CY is that I didn't completely scout the two peninsulae that happened to have about 8 food resources across the two of them; and now one of them has spawned a barb city about five turns before we would have settled it, not that there's much room for barb cities to spawn anywhere else. At least we can capture it soon.

Incidentally, Savant has poached cities like Regna (which is closer to Donovan than anyone else, but circumnavigation carries him), which has two hill forest deer + two clams + gold + horses and is still behind us in Crop Yield, probably because he whips a lot (can't have all cities on research when he's also building one settler per turn).

We still have about five food resources due for connection (two of them in 2t). But considering that nobody else seems to have Calendar yet, I must be flagrantly mismanaging the empire if we're that far behind, yeah.