[PB37 SPOILER] Coeurva, Bacchus -- Cyrus of Carthage

[Coeurva]

T123

Can't type too much right now. The essentials:

Krill has put a chariot onto the island we're going to settle (which means we'll put an archer onto the forested hill), and Yuri and Krill are trading fish/fish now. We really shouldn't have sent Russia anything; my hope is for Krill to think Yuri is the main target, or for Gavagai and Donovan to be prepared to pile on. We'll kick the chariot with our cultural borders so that Krill can't view the staging tile during the relevant turns; good thing we happen to have a settler underway! Obviously, we must keep the galleys from Zodiac Spire out of sight before then.

We should also assume Savant will pile on, but his power isn't high right now and Gavagai has the weapon of choice.

Gavagai was the one who had #1 soldiers for a while (not Joey). His power is on par with ours now. Same goes for most of his graphs.

Joey got a GArtist in Seven Mysteries. State of Yue size15, same as Gobwin Knob.


Krillandia. I'm concerned about these distances between cities and the Great Artist. If we want to call off the attack, now's the time, but Krill will only grow stronger on shrine income and recuperation through peaceful expansion, and his naval presence will always threaten us whether at these shores or further eastward, at new frontiers. I hope we can capture two cities quickly and get Gavagai (and maybe Donovan) into this.

Gavagai's very similar demos and long time sitting on 14-15 cities have me assuming that his game plan is similar to ours from here, at least (conquest).


Forges that finish before the GA are probably good value if the city gets substantial hammers (none for Sherry). Sicil will get one next (6t), maybe Lifeblood as well. Not least, they return some value on whipping cothons. (1/10th of the forge price in Styx' case)

We might have 1-2 triremes for the initial strike. I have assigned three workers to fort construction duty as well, but don't count on those galleys being there at once -- they're meant to bring in reinforcements so that Krill's counterstrike doesn't knock us back to square one.

We need to grow Rhapsody. I've put away the mines for now; we'll finish the thing at exactly 350/350h, unless someone else grabs it, of course. While OF into the NEpic wouldn't waste any hammers, it's not as valuable as food for the food god / GA.


Demographics. See, our food is looking decent! ...when ignoring dtay's huge lead. Fun fact: We're #1 GNP at 100% sci (355 score), above dtay's current deficit research, while we're teching Priesthood, but of course, that's misleading. Compass places us at a more sensible 300 score (rank #4).

[Coeurva]

T124

No mention of GLib in the event log; only read that Joey's Golden Age is over. Failgold would have allowed a faster Feudalism, but I do appreciate that we can execute our long-term plan.

We have about 6-7 workers in the south right now; they're variously going to workshop the Sicil/Vermin area (not much else to do, and we can use the hammers once war breaks out) or build the fort, which finishes in 2t. Our fifth galley will be Hebona; the four moves allow her to get to the shores at Maudlin Sphinx in time for the attack. This frees up Maud to build a second trireme.

Our force will thus consist of five galleys (one 4-move), two triremes, nine swordsmen (7 CR2, 1 CR1, 1 unpromoted), a Sentry chariot (or a Shock chariot, but we must decide now; the other will stay back; I think Sentry will be more valuable) and an untold number of reinforcements to arrive later. Vassalage + GA + lbows will hopefully allow us to keep those islands -- dtay isn't that far away, either.

Here's the battle plan. Signs read turn numbers.


Hebona allows us to potentially raze one of Krill's harbours on T133 in a move that I hope will catch him completely by surprise, but it's risky -- if the garrison is too strong for an amphibious assault with two swords, we'd be exposing our most valuable unit. The rest of the plan is obvious; we'll put pressure on Krill by forking three cities and capturing/razing whatever he leaves open. If we can eliminate his cities on this shore, we'll be safe to tech galleons and dominate this sea against him, but I wouldn't count on it, unless Gavagai joins in.

There are at least two Krillian cities whose locations we don't know, Machineel and Elderberry. It's possible that at least one of them is located in this sea as well.

Not much to say on domestic stuff. Cities are mostly just working as much food as possible and avoiding whips.

[Bacchus]

I think the potential Hebona deviation gives an answer to the chariot promotion -- has to be Sentry, and can be unloaded NE of FOxglove to check out Hemluck's garrison.

So, let's say Krill busts the plan early, what then? Is it resilient to foreknowledge? If not, what's the backup?

[Coeurva]

Krill cannot see the naval stack at any point before T129 if he pops borders at Mandrake, and will not even see any stack at all if he doesn't. He hasn't signed OB with anyone but Savant, which makes me think he never researched Alphabet, thus no spies of his inside our cities. The settlement of X17 will push away Krill's surveying chariot on the neutral island, while our galleys will remain far from any potential scouting unit, and sail in staggered as well.

I've sailed the galley in a way that Mandrake would have remained in the fog if the Sentry chariot hadn't been on board (Krill probably didn't expect that), but I still saw no units in the city except for a combat 3 axe (might take the Shock chariot on our, uh, maiden voyage instead of the unpromoted sword). That makes me think Krill cannot defend the city even if he anticipates the attack. We'll build/whip/chop triremes (including at new-settled X17) at all our seaside cities and sail them directly towards Krill, to pick off all galleys that we see. If he builds triremes in response: excellent, that means fewer potential galleys for him to ferry units with. Longbows from Vermin/Lifeblood will reinforce our cities (using Hebona for the front lines).

Thing is, we saw all empty or axe-defended cities when our galley wandered past. It could have been a planned response from Krill, but he has basically no competition in that sea (Yuri, Donovan) besides dtay in the south, while having two hostile neighbours on land and a somewhat-lowish soldier score compared to others -- so I would assume that he's actually not putting many units on those islands. He was planning for an inconspicuous REX, flying under the radar while we were busy with our other neighbours, and thus improve his position that had suffered from the early war. We've done the same thing in the north-west, essentially -- Joey, JR4 and dtay all seem quite concerned with each other.

Also, you gotta have nerves of steel to voluntarily leave your size6 city empty with a galley next to it for 2t, and he notably did move in the axe at once when we first saw the unescorted Foxglove settler. I mean, I did it just to bluff a chariot attack; but it could very nearly have backfired.

Krill also has to defend against Gavagai, who has 100,000 more soldiers and might well smell blood if we take two cities quickly. Savant is another target for Gavagai, but Krill's position is more vulnerable and offers the better rewards (three wonders, a crippled neighbour on six cities, Hinduism in all cities, the Hindu shrine...) -- Not the best back-up plan, I admit.

I think that the chariot landing on the X17 island suggests his uncertainty and caution -- If he was expecting an immediate attack at Mandrake within ~5t, I think it would have remained in the city instead.

If we want to call off the attack, it's not because of 1t more on which Krill knows to whip galleys forever -- it's because we have to consider those islands untenable against any kind of counter-strike, or the attack itself to peter out before it even reaches the three-fork point due to unit losses. Which might well be possible. In that case, we can:

(a) fall back on "fire GA, build some filler settlers, get cothons, tech Machinery -> Guilds, kill Yuri" while having a large fleet to snipe Yuri's eastern cities with (there's at least one) and deter any opportunism from Krill. We'd have to wait for dtay's attack before attacking Yuri, though, otherwise he'll roll through us afterwards (we either need his stack to be injured, or him to fight Mongolia -- which might happen, as they're the primary EP target of his; Yuri will also never be a threat to dtay, so he might want to keep him around as a buffer just as well)

(b) build up during the GA and get ready to attack Dark Savant with two-movers (plus our swordfleet for the islands, starting at Regna) immediately after that. His border garrisons are not impressive, nor is his soldier graph increase during the last 10t (more so because it's all scattered across 20 cities); besides, Gavagai will join this war. The downside is exactly that.

In any case, we can take Chehalis with our swords if we call off the attack on Krill. The time to do that is now, if you think it's the better course of action. I'd have no problem with either decision.

[Coeurva]

Ah damn, Bacchus, look at Civstats: Gavagai is at war with Mongolia. Took at least one city off them, probably the one east of his gold island, which is extremely close (like two tiles). Not good news, we needed him as a counterweight. Krill has also whipped ~10 pop and founded another city.

This might also set dtay's knights into motion, and frees up Joey to do basically whatever he wants to. I doubt Krill is going to attack Gavagai here, he'll use the relief to build more settlers instead.

On the other hand, I'm growing amused by how Gavagai's plan seems to be even closer to ours than I had expected. Naval war ho! If he's using Rep not only for the happiness, but to get GScis for the Astro bulb with extra profit...

We need to secure ourselves against Savant imitating the success, by the way. Westward only has an axe + archer, and with the capital on NEpic and Ignis needing to build a garrison for itself, has a bit of a hard time; maybe I'll whip those barracks and OF into an archer, if you think losing two 203 coast (+library) in GA would be worth it; otherwise, it gets defenses from Dragonish (maybe Numids are a good idea after all)

[Bacchus]

I didn't mean to imply the attack should be called off, I think it's the right idea, just wanted to check whether you've considered the options and risk management. We can always redirect the swords to Savant as well, actually. Just wanted to check how ready you are for the plan to meet enemy response

Big news on the Mongolia front.

[Coeurva]

Actually, I took it as I understand your stated intent -- we have to be ready for everything, including scrapping a perfectly good plan.

I have no illusions that this war is going to be any easier than the first one. We're attacking Krill, for one, who is undoubtedly a better Civ player than I am "on general principle"; he has just lost the threat of his land neighbour piling on (unless Gavagai manages to sign peace at once if JR4 fears dtay and Joey and can't respond anyway); naval war has awful logistics not helped by the ridiculous supply lines (but this applies to both sides, the planned three-fork on Krill can't be dispelled by horse archers as it could on land, for instance); ten swords aren't all that much, and we need units to stuff into the cities for the inevitable counterattack (which ones? I'd like to get Vermin working on those at once); we might only gain 2-3 decent cities even if it all works perfectly, and would still not pull ahead (although we'll unlock some more city sites for us, at least).

By the way, if you want to join in playing and discussing the turns of war live, we could set up a Discord channel or some such. Alternatively, I can shift the reports to the beginnings of the turns.

[Bacchus]

Oh you telephatic cunt, you:



I think that's a good sign, I think he isn't ready.

Edit: Gavagai took a 1-tile island on Mongolia's western side. Knowing Gavagai, there is probably a full-on assault behind that, and it would explain is power rise. Not great timing for us, not by a long shot, there is little we can pick up from Mongolia's wreckage, unlike Joey and Dtay. We could get the rump of Russia, but what good is that.

[Bacchus]

I would come back to Krill offering peace for 200 gold. It's ballsy enough that he may think it's a total bluff.

[Coeurva]

We're not taking that peace. But yeah, this is what makes Krill good: when in doubt, force us to reveal our plans, and with impeccable timing. I'm amazed.

There might be merit to acting "insulted" and demanding all his gpt for peace, or else. He wouldn't have done this if he didn't feel vulnerable, I agree. EDIT: Ha, crosspost. The gist of it is, declining outright just shows our hands, but acting as though we had misunderstood his intentions will keep him insecure. Besides, he's the aggressor now and we will be the righteous retributors defending ourselves, then taking his cities (maybe).

We must kill his observing chariot now. We don't have much time (on Krill's half of T128, it must be dead), but we should have enough units. Settling X17 on that island might mask the reason why we're removing it, but won't land the settler right away (chariot gets outside odds on grass forest hill archer; I think 20%?). Shouldn't use swords for this job. I think the C1 spear in Z-Spire can reach in time via Hebona (plus one silly C1 chariot to mop up if necessary), while leaving the 4-move galley unseen by Krill. Triremes can kill any of his possible scouting galleys with sufficiently ambiguous reasons. Vermin will add two cats T127/128 and send them southwards so that Yuri doesn't try funny stuff at Spire. He doesn't have HBR, I think -- just a bunch of axes and spears, maybe swords? Cats should hold. Also, dtay will likely roll over Yuri if he declares on us, and I think he's aware.

Let's send iron/iron, fish/fish to Gavagai and Donovan now (also OB to Donovan). There's no risk; if he openly accepts, Krill will quiver, if he covertly accepts, he'll notice our will to fight Krill and might change his own plans as well; if he declines, nothing changes.

EDIT: We might be able to take Nambui from the Khatunate with a few swords from Sicil. We could absolutely not hold the city, though. At least Joey has a reason not to declare war on us (trade), but if we took that city, that would just strain our relations. My worry is that Savant might move against the Khatunate's islands.