Uncommonly Good: A Story of Elves

[Gaspar]

Time to work a Sage is probably after the Settler is finished. You’ll need to come off the Corn to avoid the city growing as you build Carnival, Temple etc. I agree that soon would be good, so that our first Adepts can take Rust, and the Shrine also gives a free promotion to units.

Yeah. Once we get a Temple up, we can actually work the corn and go sage/priest since either one will let us build the shrine.

I’m also with Azoth on the slight surprise that you’ve not switched the capital for an extra one turn warrior (swapping the farms for forested hills). I’d question even more the wisdom of not moving the one completed recently back towards a defensive position (if I’m reading the last screenshot right). Since the killsquad all have C1, I’d think we need at least a three warrior stack to ensure we are safe from unlucky rolls. Taka only has Drill and a promotion pending, right?

Again, this comes down to the risk situation. I'm going to move the warrior back into defensive position this turn, but the fact we can get a 1T warrior if we need it is reason enough to delay until we know where the threat is. If I gave Taka guerilla and sat him on the forested hill, I'd say odds are we'd wipe out most of that stack or at least soften it enough to clean up with others. Paradise city grows this turn and I'll swap off the farm to 2 cottages, which should get us a warrior there in 4T, which is conveniently how far the kill team is from the city center. I suppose I could play it safer than this, but we really need to get city 4 down quickly. I reiterate that we're behind.

If the Hippus have got lots of coast, then OO makes sense for that reason. However, he is completely wrong about doing it to deny the Clowns an Archmage. The Balz will go Esus, and be stuck with it until somebody kills Gibbon. What is noticeable from the message is that RG distinctly does not say that he isn’t planning to attack us.

In a few turns we’ll hopefully have two Holy Cities. You might as well change your leader name to “Please Stomp Me!”. On that front, it’s time to start watching the Power graph. I think the Hippus are a couple of warriors ahead of us – garrison for their extra city. However, the important news is what the graph shows Nicolae probably trained last turn.

The running score looks to be… Zombies: 1, Horsies: 0, Elves:

I think the distinct lack of interest in cooperation and Nicolae's lack of response indicates to me we should probably be worried about the possibility of a coordinated attack, arranged by Kyan. More and more I think we might just have to ensure we have BW by T100. Perhaps even switching to Crafting -> Mining -> BW -> Archery after leaves, then move to Priesthood and Corruption of Spirit after. While I'm all for taking risks with barbs, I'm less interested in being smooshed by humans because we thought we could muster a better defense.

RG's only worried about Balseraphs if they get an archmage? Hasn't he seen PBEM5, where 4 archmagi, a large stack of warriors and axes and PoL and tigers were only barely enough to handle Balseraphs with only adepts? He thinks the main threat of spectres is their *fear*, not the fact that each mage can hit him each turn with 2 quickly moving, Death affinity (and hence guaranteed Str 4 minimum) units every turn?

I think its clear Rawkking is underrating the Balseraph threat. Not sure how to convince him otherwise.

So question: Is Hyborem slated to be a person, or just a useless AI? Although Uberfish showed the value of being elves and having the massive evil powerhouse nearby be slowed by horsemen and hell terrain.

I don't think its been decided. I'm in favor of useless AI though, or only the summoner can switch. Anything else is a pain in the ass, particularly this game, which because of all the dedlurkers, has very few unspoiled for it.

[Gaspar]

T73:

Score increases: Clowns 22, Hippus 27, Grigori 6, Elohim 27

The Lizard has moved back to threaten. I debated taking a 65% chance on attacking him with 1-2-3, but decided it more prudent to let him suicide on the city, so I moved the Kid back towards Hash Pipe. He's currently on the Marble hill, so if the Lizard attacks him there its possible he'll die.



The barb kill team has moved closer - it certainly appears they're after Paradise City. Taka will move to intercept, and the other warrior is moving to cover PC. If we have to churn out a 1T warrior in the capital, its possible. I'm not moving off the Settler just yet though.



Hunting Lodge complete at Hash Pipe. Now working the Riverside Cottage, it grows in 3, completes Hawk in 2. My plan is Hawk - Hunter - Hawk - Hunter as a build order.

The savant plus growth has us down to -6 gpt. I'm going to just burn whatever deficit I have to to finish Leaves, then we'll spend a turn on 0% before moving on. So we have until T77 to decide on the future tech path. I think I'm pretty sure I want to go Crafting -> Mining next, they should both be 3T techs once pop growths and arrow discounts are factored in. I think its worth finding out if Ravus bothered to give us metal before settling the 4th city - obviously its worth moving for copper, since I think spamming loads of Bronze Warriors will probably be the best defense we can muster right now, outside of March.

Oh, before I forget, OO FIADL. I'll assume thats Rawkking. Here's demos and the power graph, which I'll begin including each turn. I enjoy the silly spike from our Savant.

[Man Behind the Mask]

The Lizard has moved back to threaten.

<snip>

The barb kill team has moved closer - it certainly appears they're after Paradise City. Taka will move to intercept, and the other warrior is moving to cover PC.

I think I’m a little more worried about these barbs than you are, Gaspar, and I’ve been playing with the Combat Calculator to stoke my fears.

The odds say the 1-2-3 Kid wins, but only three times in four.

The Kill-Team is more concerning. Even on a forest hill, there is at best a 66% likelihood that Taka will die to the second attacker in that stack. The odds would therefore leave three of them standing, one promoted. Rather than stop them on the way, we could have a 76% chance of winning any battle into the city if it’s two C1 warriors facing off (and it’s highly likely their fourth attacker finishes off anyone fighting a second combat). I repeat my desire for at least three warriors in the city. Even then, with only one “unlucky” combat, we’d be looking at potentially only one man standing facing two (promoted) attackers.

I think I'm pretty sure I want to go Crafting -> Mining next, they should both be 3T techs once pop growths and arrow discounts are factored in.

Erm… didn’t we conclude a few days ago for Festivals->Priests. I’m not yet saying I disagree, here, but it would be interesting to see the rationale for changing your mind. The agreed path had economic benefits, but I do suspect Bronze Warriors (and Archers?) could be an equally valid option in a defensive zombie war. On that front, still no reply from Nicolae is a worry.

Score increases: Clowns 22, Hippus 27, Grigori 6, Elohim 27

C&D catchup for the last few turns:
• It looks like the Clowns have picked up a couple of classical techs in worryingly quick succession, as well as some landpoints and their population growing to 25.
• Grigori are still second in total pop, with 19
• We believe the Hippus have teched Message from the Deep, and their population is up to 18.
• The Elohim are still at the back of the pack, having just finished their first classical tech as their population grows to 11.


I’m away on vacation for a few days from this evening. I’ll try to access the forum and post what I can, but there won’t be much detail or any C&D. I’m sure we’ll go from strength to strength without my input holding us back.

[Mardoc]

I think all in all I've got to agree with Rawwking Goodguy - reinforce against the barbs! The main lesson that Sareln's combat calculator has driven home to me is just how much a numerical edge can help; I'm usually surprised at how small the outnumbering margin has to be to overcome a strength deficit. I suppose the Ogre was a prime example - he was Str 8/9, we were Str 3, and yet it only took 3 jobbers to take him down.

Enjoy your trip, RG! We'll miss you. Remember, the elves aren't about winning, they're about having fun

As for the army/foreign situation, I think I still come down on the side of Priests. We'll have our panic button, so the difference between 16 hammer warriors and 80 hammer priests won't be as significant anymore. But priests have free Mobility, free significant XP gain, higher base strength, and of course the Tigers. And they can Bloom stuff for possible extra free Treants. I think the key difference is that I wouldn't consider going on offense with just warriors, even bronze ones, but I would consider it with Priests + Tigers. And if we fight, we'll need to be able go on offense; a stalemate equals long term failure.

Which means ignoring copper for the moment. Heck - we probably have a source, but if we don't, we know where one is - New York and/or Babylon . Which we can probably seize with treants if the situation is dire (still looking forward to those Hawk flights to prove this one way or the other, mind you).

[Gaspar]

Don't have a lot of time to chat, but the bottom line here is something you've all said in relation to the barbs. I think both Nicolae and RG are going to attack us. While the worldspell is part of a dogpile defense, there's nothing more important than numbers. And we can build a lot more str 4 bronze warriors than we can str 5 priests. I can always be persuaded otherwise, but I really think we have maybe 25-30 turns before someone is bearing down on us.

[Mardoc]

Don't have a lot of time to chat, but the bottom line here is something you've all said in relation to the barbs. I think both Nicolae and RG are going to attack us. While the worldspell is part of a dogpile defense, there's nothing more important than numbers. And we can build a lot more str 4 bronze warriors than we can str 5 priests. I can always be persuaded otherwise, but I really think we have maybe 25-30 turns before someone is bearing down on us.

Well, yes. But can we build a lot more str 4 bronze warriors than we can summon Str 4 Tigers? Especially since the likely enemies are not even in contact, so will have trouble coordinating - which ought to mean we can summon, hit them, summon again, repeat.

If the debate were bronze warriors or Stonewardens, I'd say warriors every time. It's the summons that push Priests of Leaves ahead in my mind.

[NobleHelium]

Can we do a more accurate estimate of when we'd be able to tech Priesthood and Bronze Working and then compare those dates, and then how much relevant production we can get by T100 for each tech path? That would be a lot more useful than vaguely discussing tiger-summoning priests and bronze warriors in completely indeterminate numbers.

[Mardoc]

Can we do a more accurate estimate of when we'd be able to tech Priesthood and Bronze Working and then compare those dates, and then how much relevant production we can get by T100 for each tech path? That would be a lot more useful than vaguely discussing tiger-summoning priests and bronze warriors in completely indeterminate numbers.

Really it'll mostly depend on our assumptions for what else we do. If we were to, now, go straight for warrior production and nothing else - no settlers, no temples, no carnivals, etc - we could probably get 40-50 warriors built by T100, and probably that wouldn't crash our economy until after we have Bronze, at which point they could all be upgraded instantly. That would definitely crash our economy by the end, but if we have to fight off warcried horsemen and pyre zombies with just warriors, it might be how we have to do it. At the end, we'd be producing ~2 warriors/turn.

MBTM did an analysis a little while back on what will be possible if we go for priests. The assumptions may have changed a bit since then, but it worked out to something between 4 and 6 priests at T100, with 2 more coming every 5-6 turns. Which means 4-6 new tigers/turn if we're able to use them all each turn. But this route lets us spend the first period focused on settlers/buildings.

It might be worth revisiting the question now that we have a few more turns played and hence a better idea what our civ will do going forward. Especially if our GNP and/or MFG has improved faster than MBTM predicted, we'd be able to get more Priests online in time.

Edit: The big difference between the warriors approach and the Priests approach is when they give us the power. Warriors gives us some power immediately, and ramping up from there, with a big jump as soon as we get Bronze Working. They level out at the end, though, as our economy crashes.

The priests approach gives us basically nothing of consequence until somewhere around T85-90, when Priesthood comes in, but then our combat effectiveness goes up in a much faster spike, and it costs us less to maintain the army, too. We can sorta compensate for this by building a few warriors here and there, but if we're not pushing for bronze, they're much less efficient.

So basically it comes to the question of when we're getting hit. If Hippus comes before T90, or Sheaim before T100, then warriors are much better. I think the two approaches approximately even out at T100, and then if we have even more preparation time, Priests start to come out ahead.

[Mardoc]

And it's the worldspell that is why I think we can afford to take the later-blooming approach of the Priests, combined with the fact that the Hippus have not yet begun to mobilize and the Sheaim have just barely started. It buys us, at minimum, 5 turns until the treants go back away. At maximum, it buys us time while the foes build extra troops, send in probes to try to make us hit the button early, etc. But I'll try to do a more rigorous check tonight of how much a delay we can expect from now until we have Priests, given what we've done in the past few turns.

[Mardoc]

Now, for some numbers. I'm shamelessly ripping off MBTM's analysis, updating for numbers as of the latest turn, and fixing the one mistake I know he made (spiritual cost of a Temple)

[SIZE="3"]Research:[/SIZE]

Current beaker production at 100% research is 50bpt at a loss of 4gpt. So, our breakeven rate has reached 46bpt and is climbing. If we assume we can improve that by 1 every three turns through new citizens, cottage growth, etc, then our total research output over those 25 turns will be around about 1300 beakers. I think that assumption might be a little conservative, but it might be best to be cautious, and we may not choose to focus exclusively on commerce for the whole period.

It's now T73, and we're up to 47 bpt as our breakeven rate, pretty much as predicted. Given that we'd be doing even better with the Savant settled, I think we can expect to climb a bit faster than MBTM predicted.

Tech costs quoted below are based on the pre-req arrow adjustment I used earlier (i.e. normally reducing the tech cost by the 1.2 factor that would be attributed to the beaker output in-game).

There are two possible paths that Gaspar has suggested our research could take:

Philosophy (239) -> Priesthood (638)

Philosophy gets us very little at the current time. Priesthood provides a better military unit, that can summon further units that are as strong as the best we have available now, and also work to improve our economy by putting forests on tiles where there are none.

Crafting (114) -> Mining (159) -> Bronze Working (319)

At the moment, Crafting gets us not much more than the ability to build an expensive Brewing House which could help with our poor happy cap. Mining, however, will significantly increase our production capacity if we can spare the worker turns to lay down some mines on our hills. Bronzeworking provides the ability to finally cut back the jungle (releasing our gold resource), and will also instantly improve the jobber brigade with weaponry.

There are also two further techs that we might want to slip in somewhere.

Archery (239 or 205) – this provides us a strong defensive unit and our civilization’s hero.

Festivals (143) – for an economic boost in both happiness and coins. The big problem with Festivals is that we may well not have the production capacity to gain any benefits from the newly available buildings in the near term.

Based on the beaker production described earlier, we can expect to have Priests available in the region of Turns 90 to 92 with that beeline, leaving a few turns for builds/upgrades. As an alternative example, Archery could be complete by Turn 85, and Bronze Working is only really required for the Warriors at the last moment before they leave cities to move to the front. We would need our research output to step up significantly quicker than I have allowed if we want BOTH Priests and Bronze Working before Turn 100 (need to average 60bpt breakeven), and would have to skip Archers.

So...this is looking like 3 turns for Way of the Forest, then 18 turns until Priesthood, with a possible extra diversion of +3 turns for Festivals. That puts us at Priesthood on T94-T97, depending on how fast we can grow our commerce and if we divert for Festivals. Hard to judge exactly, because we'll continue growing, and get a couple big jumps, when we build markets or grow onto the cotton.

In contrast, we could be to Bronze Working in 12 turns at breakeven, plus the 3 for WotF, getting there at ~T88-T91ish

Paradise City is not an especially hammer-rich location, and will be mostly focussed on its own infrastructure, or contributing a small number of warriors. Cypress Hill, to be settled c. T80, will be growing and immature for most of this period, although has a lot of hammer potential. Any possible further city will contribute very little to a war effort. Therefore there is a need to investigate how much we can actually get out of our two large cities. I think this is another area where there is a significant difference in our capabilities from what you might expect in a parallel situation in BTS. We can’t just build no military until we decide we need to, and then less than 10 turns later use whip and draft to muster a significant force.

For the sake of clarity, here are the hammer costs of available relevant builds:
Hunting Lodge - 67
Archery Range - 67
Training Yard – 67
Temple of Leaves - 40 (spiritual)
Dereptus Brewery - 160

Hawk - 13
Warrior - 16
Disciple of Leaves - 40
Hunter - 40
Archer - 40
Swordsman - 40
Fawn - 60
Priest of Leaves - 80
Gilden Silveric - 80

At size 7, the Chronic at max hammers can currently produce 16 hammers (including God King bonus).

The story is actually a tiny bit better at Hash Pipe, where it looks like we will be building most of our soldiers. At size 8, it can now provide up to 18 hpt with no growth.

With Priesthood at T94ish, that leaves time for 2 Priests, plus whatever disciples we build and upgrade (at 85 gold each). If I'm pessimistic in the tech projections because Paradise city, say, works the cotton and builds a market - we might manage to squeeze in 2 more priests.

So my previous estimate a 4-6 Priests at T100 requires everything to go right, essentially. If we're fighting on T90, or even exactly T100, we're likely screwed without the March. On the other hand, the March can buy us 5-10 turns, right? At a pessimistic view of the world?

I suppose the only other question is when we could expect to get Priesthood if we do go BW first. That would add 12 turns, minus whatever maintenance we have to pay on prebuilt warriors, plus an 8-9 gpt Gold tile. Actually...that's not as bad as I thought. That would have us getting to Priesthood somewhere in the T105-110 range. And we might not have to build the warriors too early, since both the Chronic and Hash Pipe can knock out 1/turn - if all we're looking for is a defense force, that might be a good enough rate.

Hmm. This is a harder question than I realized, actually. Even if we go Priests first, we wouldn't be ready for counterattacks right away, not with 2-6 priests around. Maybe a delay of a few turns to research Priesthood second and build some Priests wouldn't hinder a counterattack timetable.