[PB59] Lazteuq worries for the endangered lurker species

[Lazteuq]

Turn 110
-Ramk offered a ceasefire. As I see it, a ceasefire means next to nothing in-game, but it should help the turnpace so I accepted. He might just be trying to give me a false sense of security. His 5-move galley is incredibly powerful when I have no galleys on that coast.
-I wonder what GKC will do with his army now... Maybe hit Ramk? I still don't know what their border looks like. I think more likely he just regroups and attacks me again in 10turns.
-Charriu swapped to Serfdom/HR which makes me think he is less likely to attack.

Now that I'm temporarily at peace with all my neighbors, I think about the big picture.
I think I'm roughly in the middle of the pack. I haven't made any game-ruining mistakes, and I've been pretty lucky in general. I didn't expand very well compared to the leaders though. I also don't have any wonders or other unusual skill advantages/traits/UU/UB. No-one on my continent is standing out as a leader yet. I think I'm doing the best economically, but it feels like a shaky lead. I also have two vengeful neighbors who can ruin my game at any moment.
I'm relatively close to 2 civs who are doing very well: TBS and Mig/Rust. I will have the power to attack them with boats, and I might feel a need to knock down a runaway. I think I will at least have conflict with TBS over the islands between us. That won't help me much though. I'll need to conquer some serious land. I have absolutely no idea how to get into a more competitive position.

[Lazteuq]

Commodore wants me to stop trading with TBS. I think he has a good point, so I cancelled OB. I also cancelled OB with the other leader, Mig/Rust. I'm sure they'll understand why.
Mjmd and Ramk are at war again, which makes me less worried about Ramk's galley(s?) hitting me.
GKC's power continues to climb, I think I'll finish Construction right after I get Currency.
Maybe I should have started the first golden age a while ago.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 113+114
Ramk asked for open borders. I think it's either because he's somehow running out of trade routes, or because he wants to move boats through my borders. In the second case, I'm afraid he'll declare war and take Sei if I don't accept. So I accepted. I don't hold a grudge about his previous attack because he didn't raze the city. I still have no galleys nearby to challenge him anyway, so I might as well submit.

T113 was the last turn of enforced peace with Charriu and I didn't see any threatening moves. So I think I might be safe. I'll need to keep a serious deterrent force on the border though.
In 5 turns the treaty with GKC ends. I'll be expecting a lot more keshiks this time, but I'll have walls in both border cities and quite a few more spears. I'm also only 5xp away from a GG.

I started working on Moai in Beluga.
Currency is finally done, with an instant +36 commerce from trade routes. A map with continents separated by coast means everyone gets 3c routes easily. I kinda don't like that. Also I feel like it nerfs PRO.
Serfdom economy is working OK, but not great. These large cities are all out of useful tiles to work, so I'm running way too many coast tiles. Machinery should be where it really gets good though, and I can start reaping the reward of saving all these forests (It probably wasn't worth it).
I'm saving gold right now because I'm not sure if finishing Construction is best, or if I should go straight to Metal Casting. We'll see how threateningly GKC acts.

I've been very shortsighted with great person points. I'll want to run some Merchants to get my second great person, and that means either Caste or a Market. I think I'll build a market in Vaquita. Unfortunately I've already polluted that GPP pool with scientists. It would be nice to wait for Caste before starting the GA, but that's still pretty far away.

Looks like Joshy is Superdeath Food. My galley watched him crumple.
I've just realized I don't actually know where Mig/Rusten are. Their work boat approached from my southwest, so I assumed they were south of Charriu. Now I know the map is long and thin so that would imply they are north of GKC, which doesn't make sense.
Here are some boring numbers:

[Lazteuq]

Turn 116
I'm really feeling like I've squandered the value of SPI here. Serfdom has seduced me into not switching back to slavery in the last 20ish turns. I probably should have run 5t of slavery to whip some things like lighthouses, granaries, settlers, and galleys. Serfdom is worth about +20 commerce from farms, plus another +5c from reduced civic maintenance. That's good, but probably not good enough to compensate for all those whips I could have done.
Part of the problem is I haven't planned ahead enough to run a 5t whipping spree properly. I just haven't been planning enough in general. Sometimes I think I don't have the dedication to play solo in pitboss games. The team environment is better for me, like what we're doing right now in PB60.

At this point it makes more sense to whip heavily AFTER the golden age is done. Of course if someone attacks, I'll be whipping catapults.

Anyway, I'm 2-turn Metal Casting now so I can frantically spam lumbermills. Construction is nearly done in case GKC attacks but that's looking less likely. Then I'll go straight to Machinery.
I don't think I'll go for CoL yet. Courthouses won't help very much, only saving 2-3c per city. Caste will be good in a GA, but not that important.

I've been thinking about lumbermills all wrong. They don't gain +1c until Machinery, and Serfdom doesn't impact them at all! Oops. So the decision is: GA right now, or GA in ~13t when Machinery is done and lots of mills are built? I guess I'll wait. I won't have a second GA for a long time, and having the first one later doesn't really change anything there.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 118
GKC declared on Ramk, which is probably great news for me. However, it might be a ruse. Probably not though, since he hasn't roaded the border yet and only has 1 turn left of peace. I admit, if he showed up with like 12 keshiks outside of Steller I wouldn't be able to stop him. I think it's too vulnerable to economically defend from a major keshik attack.

I'm building wealth in some cities, delaying forges and stuff until I have the OR bonus going. Built two new cities in the east.

Having lots of population is sort of like having an army reserve because it can be easily whipped into an army without harming my production too much. Sort of like having units almost done in build queues. I have one of the bottom 3 military power ratings in the world, yet I feel somewhat comfortable.

Mig/Rust already have Feudalism,Alphabet,CoL,IW,HBR, Calendar, and more on me. I don't know why they researched Alphabet. Could they be on Paper->Education already? Their GNP is insane...
Meanwhile I know from PBspy that Civac killed AT. I haven't met either of them.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 120
Last turn GKC showed up with a galley outside Ringed (my fur island). I defended with a spear unloaded from my own galley, and he backed off. I have no idea if that galley was loaded with units or if he was bluffing. Whatever, he seems to be busy with Ramk so it's business as usual for me.

Elkad appeared with a workboat off Charriu's coast and offered Open Borders. I declined because I see that he has 2 horses! I think that means he's already conquered a good chunk of another civ, so I don't want to help him potentially circumnavigate and become even stronger. Sorry, Elkad. Crabs in a bucket hate the crabs outside the bucket.

TBS offered OB+one of his surplus Sugar. I guess he really wants better traderoutes. I declined. I can manage happiness well enough already with hereditary rule garrison units. Also I plan to get Wine connected soon. I worry that TBS will gradually wear down Commodore and become far too powerful so I really don't want to help him economically. Also accepting would have been a betrayal of Commodore. On the other hand, he might offer the same deal to GKC now if he doesn't have calendar yet. I'm assuming TBS managed to grab a good chunk of Joshy's land, and that's probably how he has surplus resources.

I plan to get Machinery on T124 by building a lot of Wealth. Once I get Machinery, I'll switch back to infrastructure, running OR.
Mig/Rust just got Machinery, I suppose they'll have Knights by t135.
I decided to start spending EPs on Superdeath because I want a better understanding of what's happening on that continent.
At some point I'll get IW and Calendar but they just don't feel important right now.

[Lazteuq]

Three diplo offers, listed in increasing order of weirdness:

Elkad offered OB again and I still said no. I'm getting enough trade routes and I don't know where he is, so it would literally be no benefit to me, while it would probably help him circumnavigate.

TBS will give his second Gems for OB, but I still said no. Same logic as with the sugar offer two turns ago, except I guess gems are a tiny bit better because of forges.

Ramk offered 50gpt for stopping trading with Mjmd. I accepted. I'm pretty sure he will just immediately declare war to cancel the deal next turn, but he already played on turn, so I get at least 50 free gold. If Ramk does declare war as I expect, I'll just reoffer Mjmd OB. If he doesn't, I don't know what to think.

[Lazteuq]

Not too much going on, but here's a screenshot.

I'm still running an absolutely minimal military, and apparently getting away with it. I got a super fortunate random Gems discovery on a mine, so now I have very little need for IW. Most of these cities are running right below the happy cap, although Forges and cheap Temples will help. Moai is built and I'm about to settle for the wine island next to Charriu. I think he has little infrastructure on that coast, like me. So a naval battle is unlikely to be very intense. Also he's running serfdom like me, so I'm not expecting trouble.
Bowhead is working on a Bazaar, which will run Merchants for the next golden age. My first scientist is just sitting there, waiting to start this GA when the Bazaar is done. I already have a scientist basically done in Manatee, so that merchant will definitely be the bottleneck for the second GA. Since I'm SPI, I don't have to time the GAs for civic swapping, it's just for maximizing GP generation and yields.

Edit: Also the Ramk gold trading situation is resolved peacefully. We're both trading 50gpt to eachother. He also gave me a lump sum, so I think I'm up 50 overall, which is fine I guess. I feel a bit bad for Mjmd, but I bet he doesn't care too much. Surely there are other trading partners to the west, right?

[vanrober]

Turn 128

there were a lot of signs but i missed some. I guess you are saving gold for the GA so i keep that like that. There was 1 missionary out of Beluga that didnt know where you wanted it to go. I moved toward the centre of your empire thinking on giving religion for any of your Western cities, like Hector or Bowhead. But not sure which one you prefere.

there was a galley next to TBS coast that i didnt know where to send it so i sitted on place.

There was a galley with an inmortal inside and i didnt know if the plan was move that inmortal throgh land while the galley goes by the coast. I didnt do it just in case.

A worker finished improving something close to vaquita and i sent him towards the capitol to make faster the watermill.

The new city close to charriu with the wine, i didnt know how to name it and didnt know what to produce there, i put a granary. Dditn know how to put the citicens of bottlenose and that new city, so finally i decided to put the clams on bottlenose since the alternative was to have a citicen giving 1 hammer, since the wine is coming online next turn i guess you would like that city to work some more gold tiles.

               

I hope you find usefull this pictures

[Lazteuq]

Thanks a lot, Vanrober!! I appreciate that you took time to post pictures. The land looks nice, is that Blue Marble terrain?
I'm sorry I didn't leave good instructions for what to do with the galleys and the new city. I'd been expecting to play turn 128 before I left. Anyway, I think you did a good job of making assumptions, I wouldn't have done anything differently.