The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[Lewwyn]

Also, I've found that I hadn't been as regular as I should have been in noting down whips earlier, and thus my earlier whip analysis is invalid for several teams, especially CivFr.

Can you check that with the Mod site?

[kjn]

No. It was a simple case of eyeballing the way I'd noted down whips in the score sheet on our C&D sheet.

I've started to fix things there, but I only have my Macbook with me (sans 23-inch screen), so I'd appreciate if someone else could go over the score notes.

Whips should be noted down as follows:

X whip Y; pop Z

X is the number of whipped cities (can be omitted for one whipped city), Y is the number of whipped pop per city, and Z is the new amount of pop.

If a team whips two whips of different sizes (eg a 2->1 and two 4->2 whips) they will have to be noted down as separate whips, eg "whip 1; 2 whip 2; pop 14"

That way my counting functions (in the sheet "Minor trackings" will keep the tally automatically.

[kjn]

Analysing the T81 APTmod data - GNP

With access to raw GNP, culture, and espionage values it's possible to calculate the usable GNP of each team, defined as that which is used to tech or to generate gold.

By taking the GNP value for each turn and then deducting the values generated earlier for culture and espionage, we get the usable GNP.

RB

Our T81 value is 62 (this is also our max value). The sum is 2,443, and the average is 30.16. Strangely enough, our total of researched beakers is at 2,574, ie a fair bit higher, and the sum also includes our costs. Not sure what is the cause of that. More on that later.

Our five-turn sum is 281.

WPC

WPC's T81 value is 20, with 34 as max (at circa T61). Their sum is 1,477, and their average is 18.23. My listed beaker total for them is 1,404, ie slightly lower than the projected GNP total. If the sum is set up to T75 (they got their last tech at eot 75) then it's 1,369, slightly lower than the projected beaker total.

Their five-turn value is 108.

Germans

The German T81 value is 7, with 31 ax max (at circa T62). The sum is 958, and their average is 11.83. My listed beaker total for them is 1,008, which at least is in the same ballpark based on WPC's figures above.

Their five-turn value is 34.

CFC

CFC's T81 value is 47, with 57 ax max (at circa T72). The sum is 1,776, and their average is 21.93. My listed beaker total for them is 1,656, and their total up to T73 (when they got their last tech) is 1,523, after which they have stockpiled gold.

Their five-turn value is 185.

Analysis

First, I want to draw attention to the discrepancies between the beakers (confirmed and tentative) and the values above. I would easily have accepted a computed raw GNP slightly above the beaker totals, but below? If the bias here is multiplicative, then the impact would be similar for all teams, but if it's additive then it will have a larger relative effect on the teams with smaller economies, especially if they have a cost similar to ours.

With that caveat out of the way, the five-turn values are probably the most interesting. Our current economy is about 1.5 times larger than CFC's (which also fits with my breakeven research analysis yesterday), with similar costs (they have slightly larger costs, probably due to not running priests and greater distances between cities). It is about 2.6 times larger than WPC's economy, and for the poor Germans we're approaching a magnitude - 8.3 times larger.

Do note that the German economy can expand very quickly coming up, unless they continue to whip their cities heavily, especially if they have some cottages that have already starting to mature to grow onto.

Also, these values also include costs. Our values can be compared to CFC's since we both use binary research, but not as easily with WPC's and the Germans's. If we assume a constant cost of 150g for each team during these turns (probably on the low end for WPC and the Germans due to unit and supply costs), the five-turn values are:

RB: 431
WPC: 258
Germans: 184
CFC: 335

We generate 1.29 more gross than CFC here, 1.67 more gross than WPC, and 2.34 more than the Germans.

Conclusion

Whips, over-expansion, and unit costs has crashed the German economy as of T81. WPC's economy is in better shape, but far from good. CFC is, unsurprisingly, by far in the best shape, but are starting to hit their limits on expansion unless they can generate more commerce soon.

[kjn]

Another thing about the WPC-German war. I'm pretty sure it was WPC who got the first Great General of the game. As per my earlier tally, WPC has killed 11 units, while the Germans only has killed 8. We will have to check later on how they might use the unit.

[NobleHelium]

The fighting was all in German territory which means they get double GG points for all their victories. And I think the Germans made more actual attacks which generate more experience than defenses. I would say a German GG is more likely.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Looking at those numbers, Currency is going to be huge for us. With OBs with CFC, by then we should know enough foreign neighbors to get close to adding ~10 additional foreign trade routes. Getting a passive +20 commerce per turn is disgusting, especially when a lot of the teams might not even have foreign trade routes at all, let alone two per city.

[T-hawk]

I don't suppose we can tell from GNP who got the GG, if somebody's GNP went down by one indicating an extra unit supply cost?

[regoarrarr]

Do we know in whose half of the timer it was born? I know that doesn't tell us for sure who had it, but it might help. I mean if we've kept a list of the WW numbers that we've compiled, we should be able to add them up (and multiply for battles fought in your own territory) to see who is more likely to have gotten to 30

[mostly_harmless]

The general was born in the German half.

mh

[waterbat]

I believe *some* of the aptmod numbers are a sample of one point in time (often towards the beginning) of the turn. later in the turn, changes in tile management, research selection, or build selection might cause the numbers to change and not get captured by Aptmod. That could explain why KJN is getting weird discrepancies.

I wouldnt be surprised to see some pretty big holes - like a turn of anarchy missed for example. -- well perhaps it is like this:

commerce/food/mfg: captured with a sample, but could differ greatly by what was selected by the civ
gold/culture/espionage: captured as total in the cities, treasury, or total EP. (so this would always reflect the previous turn's anarchy as it wouldnt increase)

we should be able to do some comparison with our own actions to sort some of this out.