The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[NobleHelium]

I don't suppose we can tell from GNP who got the GG, if somebody's GNP went down by one indicating an extra unit supply cost?

Considering military units were dying at the same time, I highly doubt it. Good thinking though.

[kjn]

Thanks NH - you're quite likely correct about the GG points. Reaching 30 XP on 16 won combat-equivalents is more likely than doing it on 11 won combats.

I also managed to work out why the APTmod GNP values were off compared to the researched beakers - they don't include the costs, which are deducted from every GNP reading. They will have to be added back in to get the total size of our economy, but we don't have a running tally of that for our team, and much less for any other team. But the guesstimate I did in the earlier GNP analysis earlier should be conceptually correct, even if the cost estimate per team probably is off for by ±20%.

I'm currently analysing the power figures, but it will take a while, since I will have to get all the power from pop in as well. I'm pretty sure those values are from just before the turn ended, before production and tech happens, but with all the actions during the turn (losses, cities settled) accounted for.

[waterbat]

kjn - Take a look at http://www.cassidyweb.com/isdg/gnp.php

Right now - it takes the 4 APT mod graphs (gold,commerce,culture,espionage), converts and displays them. Then it gets DELTA values for gold, culture, and espionage and then puts together a usable GNP table. I also tried to get an estimate of "spent GNP", but im not sure those numbers make sense.

I havent displayed the delta tables, but could do those seperately if you want. Also can do total - or 5turn moving averages as well if you want. Let me know - I can put it all together in that one page so all we need to do is grab the URLs.

I just simultaneously discovered that "commerce" includes the cost factors as well - that's a shame as otherwise we could deduce them somewhat.


**warning on that URL - you dont have to submit all 4, but not sure what happens when you don't. Also assumes you grab ALL the graphs at the same time with the same Civs selected. Also -the last values for MIN and MAX are fubar.

[kjn]

Thanks, but lets hold off on further work there for the moment (unless you want to play with the numbers and data yourself). I've already set up a spread sheet that handles that, but I'm not sure exactly what or how things need to be changed or added yet, and then it's better to find out what's needed before we do other stuff.

Most especially I'm not sure how well this thing will deal with non-GNP infusions of culture, gold, et c, like from wonder failgold.

[kjn]

Analysing the T82 APTmod data - WPC Power

WPC started with 2000 in power, and now has 85000 (or at least had that at the start of T82). They received techs on T9, T22, T29, T44, T49, T53, T57, T66, and T76.

Once I got all the power increases, it was pretty clear that WPC researched BW on T44, earlier than I had thought. This caused quite a bit of reassessment of their tech path.

T8: +2000 - built warrior
T9: +2000 and tech - Hunting
T20: +2000 - bullt warrior (as conjectured on T20!)
T22: +2000 and tech - Mining
T29: +3000 and tech - barracks (no Mysticism, no culture increase); Mysticism?
T31: +2000 - built warrior
T40: two cities
T44: +8000 and tech - Bronze Working
T47: +2000 - built warrior
T48: +6000 - built dog soldier
T49: tech - Masonry?
T52: +6000 - build dog soldier
T53: +4000 and tech - The Wheel
T54: +3000 - barracks?
T56: +6000 - built dog soldier
T57: +6000 and tech - Archery
T60: +6000 - built dog soldier
T61: +6000; three cities - built dog soldier
T65: +6000 - built dog soldier
T66: four cities and tech - Pottery
T67: +6000 - built dog soldier
T68: +6000 - built dog soldier
T69: +6000 - built dog soldier
T70: -2000; lost warrior
T71: -1000; +1 culture delta - totem pole, lost warrior
T72: +3000 - built archer?
T73: -5000 and +1 culture delta - totem pole, lost dog?
T74: +1000 and +1 culture delta - totem pole
T76: +7000, tech, -80g - Writing???, upgraded warrior to dog; barracks or archer?
T77: +3000 - archer or barracks?
T78: -12000 - two dog soldiers killed
T79: +12000 - likely two dog soldiers
T80: +6000 - likely a dog soldier
T81: -30000 - five dog soldiers killed
T82: +3000 - archer

T76 is very tentative here, but I can't come up with any good combination of AH and units reaching 7000 in combined power. It might be that they built walls, but I see no way to fit that to the unit upgrade.

Given this, I peg their current army as:

4 archers (one or two of which might be a barracks instead) (12k)
5 dog soldiers (30k)
2 warriors (4k)

Their military significant buildings are:

2 barracks (6k)
3 totem poles (3k)

Power from pop and tech is 8k and 22k. This comes to a grand total of 85k. They are unlikely to have any spearmen in service right now.

[mostly_harmless]

Demos after the Lizzy whip:

mh

[mostly_harmless]

And here the demos after Holy Rome whip:

mh

[kjn]

Analysing the T82 APTmod data - German Power

The Germans started with 2000 in power, and now has 141000 (at least at the time of sampling at the start of T82), 6000 of which come from pop. They received techs on T9, T19, T27, T42, T52, and T66.

With the Germans I also run into some sampling errors. Whips that happened late on Tx are registered in the power values as happening on Tx+1 instead, and there are some power gains and loss on T73 and T81 I can't make sense of right now. The sampling errors are compensated for below, but the T73 and T81 differences are just fudged below. On the other hand, I did not need to re-assess my earlier conjectured tech path for the team.

T0: 2000 - Agriculture, Mysticism, Quechua
T9: 2000 - Hunting
T17: 2000 - Quechua
T19: 4000 and tech - The Wheel
T27: 2000 and tech - Mining
T29: 0 - Two cities
T30: 2000 - Quechua
T31: -2000 - Lost Quechua
T36: 2000 - Quechua
T37: 2000 - Quechua
T42: 8000 and tech - Bronze Working
T44: 0 - Three cities
T47: 2000 - Quechua
T50: 2000 - Quechua
T51: 2000 - Quechua
T52: 0 and tech - Pottery, Four cities
T54: 2000 - Quechua
T56: 2000 - Quechua
T57: 2000 - Quechua
T59: 6000 - Axeman
T65: 0 - Five cities
T66: 2000 and tech - Animal Husbandry
T68: 0 - Six cities
T69: 9000 - Axeman, Barracks
T70: 8000 - Axeman, Quechua
T71: 12000 - 2 Axemen, Five cities (Wilhelmshaven razed by WPC)
T72: 12000 - 2 Axemen
T73: -3000 - Barracks, built Axeman; lost 2 Axemen
T74: 18000 - 3 Axemen
T75: -6000 - Lost Axeman
T76: 6000 Axeman, Horse connected
T77: 10000 and -72g - Axeman, Quechua->Axeman upgrade?
T78: 14000 - Axeman, 2 chariots
T79: -2000 - Lost quechua
T80: 8000 - 2 chariots
T81: -5000 - barracks, 2 chariots; lost chariot, lost 2 axemen
T82: 10000 - Axeman, chariot

I peg their current army as:

9 quechua (18k)
11 axemen (66k)
6 chariots (24k)

They have 3 barracks (9k). Power from pop is 6k, and from tech 18k, for a grand total of 141k. Their current army is quite a bit larger than WPC's, who probably will have to go through a heavy whip cycle if the Germans push their advantage.

ETA: Found an error in the analysis above. On T70 I missed to account 1000 in power from pop to the Germans. In reality they had a power increase of 7000 that turn - a spearman or chariot and a barracks, or something else?

[kjn]

Thanks m_h!

Apolyton did a 4->2 whip (population loss of 42000), and lowered their power with 1000. This also probably dropped their GNP to be below ours. They have 17 pop total.

Univers did a 3->2 whip (population loss of 15000). They have 28 pop total. This also caused rival best in food to drop from 77 to 76, so Univers is confirmed as the rival best here.

[kjn]

Analysing the T82 APTmod data - CFC Power

Hopefully this will be simpler than doing WPC or the Germans. CFC started with 4000 in power, and now has 64000 (at the time of sampling early T82), of which 12000 comes from pop.

They received techs on T10, T20, T31, T43, T52, T57, T61, T62, T69, and T74.

T0: 4000 - Mining, Mysticism, Warrior
T10: 0 - Agriculture
T20: 6000 - The Wheel, Warrior
T27: 2000 - Warrior
T31: 0 - Pottery
T35: 0 - Two cities
T43: 10000 - Bronze Working, Warrior
T47: 2000 - Warrior
T51: 0 - Three cities
T52: 2000 - Hunting?
T55: 0 - Failgold for Stonehenge, circa 72g
T57: 2000 - Animal Husbandry?
T58: 2000 - Warrior
T61: 0 - Masonry
T62: 0 - Polytheism
T63: -2000 - Lost warrior, four cities
T64: 2000 - Warrior
T68: 6000 - Axeman, five cities
T69: 0 - Monotheism, found Judaism
T73: 6000 - Axeman
T74: 0 - Writing?
T76: 6000 - Axeman
T78: -2000 - Lost warrior, six cities
T81: 6000 - Axeman

I peg their current army as 5 warriors (10k) and 4 axemen (24k). They have 12k power from pop, and 18k from tech. Some of the power from tech might be in warriors, but no more than two additional warriors.