Brexit Political Discussion Thread

[Mr. Cairo]

But even beyond the domestic stuff, the UK cannot actually succeed while trading with the rest of the world under WTO rules. Either they enforce the automatic tariffs and imports get very expensive, or they don't and cripple UK businesses by allowing cheap imports that undercut british-made stuff. Meanwhile British exports will all have tariff slapped on them making them non-competitive.

Like Krill said, they can ignore WTO rules until they don't have to.

Doesn't mean the rest of the world is going to. Every British export will suddenly be subject to tariffs, including those to the EU. Above all else, the EU is a rules-based organisation. They will follow their own rules, and the rules of organisations they've signed up to, like the WTO.

And as for the rest of the world, who would be eager to sign a trade deal with a Britain that's fragrantly ignoring WTO rules? Well, other countries/leaders that don't like to follow international agreements. Trump is the biggest one, but he can't get a deal past Congress, so that's not happening. Iran? Hates the British. North Korea, has nothing to offer. Russia? Maybe, but that would be a massive 180 on Britain's current attitude towards Putin's Russia. So no, no-one really. And certainly not the one place that is the most important to the UK's economy: Europe.


On to actual news. BJ is going for it, so now we'll see just how serious people like Grieve and Hammond are about stopping no deal. It looks like a VONC is the only way now. Who's more likely to break, Corbyn about who get's to be caretaker PM? Or the Lib Dems and Tory backbenchers about Corbyn?

[MJW (ya that one)]

Neither. Parliament will get 14 days to do something after VONC and they can just make revoke the default; instead of no deal.

[Mr. Cairo]

Neither. Parliament will get 14 days to do something after VONC and they can just make revoke the default; instead of no deal.

If no-one can be shown to have confidence of the house during that period, then Boris will stay on as PM for those 14 days, preventing parliament from doing that by either controlling the timetable, or more likely, just going to the queen and asking for an election, which she would give if no-one can have the confidence of the house, and parliament then dissolves.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Humble address bypasses timetable and FTPA explicitly gives 14 days for people to try and form government.

[Mr. Cairo]

And in the meantime, the current government remains. Boris doesn't automatically stop being PM if he loses a VONC, he only stops if someone else has confidence of the house, either through a vote of confidence of the current Parliament, or through an election. At no point is the UK without a government, without a PM. A humble address would have to ask the Queen to request an extension of A50 or revoking it altogether, political acts the Queen will not do.

[ipecac]

Above all else, the EU is a rules-based organisation.

Ha. That's a good one.

And as for the rest of the world, who would be eager to sign a trade deal with a Britain that's fragrantly ignoring WTO rules? Well, other countries/leaders that don't like to follow international agreements.

Why are you so hung up about following the letter of the rules? There's more than one type of rule-breaking, and if the UK breaks the WTO rules not for a deliberate gain of trading advantage, but to temporarily deal with a messy domestic situation, few will care.

[Krill]

It reverts to self interest. Pragmatism about trade rules in an area that can become a war zone is not going to affect negotiation of trade deals. I agree with ipecac, medium term the border is a none issue with the rest of the world.

Humble address bypasses timetable and FTPA explicitly gives 14 days for people to try and form government.

And in the meantime, the current government remains. Boris doesn't automatically stop being PM if he loses a VONC, he only stops if someone else has confidence of the house, either through a vote of confidence of the current Parliament, or through an election. At no point is the UK without a government, without a PM. A humble address would have to ask the Queen to request an extension of A50 or revoking it altogether, political acts the Queen will not do.

Will the Lib Dems fold? Probably. The whole legislative route just got nuked into oblivion (and it looked dicey to begin with, I'm not sure if it would have been wiser to string everyone along a bit more and then drop this bombshell if things looked to get out of control and get Brexit closer to the finish line). And they probably have enough numbers to pull the plug on Corbyn immediately after an extension occurs anyway. Not that it matters that much in the short term if Corbyn is saying he will call for an election, but that election would be a disaster for everyone. Labour running at a Referendum, LD running at full revoke, Brexit Party comes out a straight no deal, and Boris stuck between Labour, Farage and Teresa May's Deal. I reckon it's that general election that Swinson fears, because right now the window is tight enough that revoke could be forced by the EU if they refuse to offer an extension (and an election can't be forced without Tory agreement because of the numbers). Which puts Corbyn in the potential position of a truly lame Prime Minister, but how the public view that, and then vote, who the fuck knows?

I'm less sure that there would be enough Tories that would vote for Corbyn, but there are definitely those that would abstain. There would be a hell of a lot more that would vote for Ken Clarke though. Question is, what would be the different numbers? They probably need every none Tory MP, and about 2 Tories according to electoral math, but even that is risky. Would Grieve and Ken Clarke be enough to see in Corbyn as PM?

If I was putting down a tenner, I'd say the VONC goes in on the 4th (Monday), it's lost on the 5th, and Corbyn then wins Parliamentary confidence by something like 5 votes on Thursday 7th after some little hiccup with Torry MPs on the Wednesday.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well it looks like it's snap general election time. If a Brexit-Tory voting compact happens they probably win if not parliment will probably be too divided to do anything expect second refferendum or another GE. It depends if Farage wants attention or wants Brexit (it's obvious EU would never cave on backstop so Farage could just make BJ to promise to go for it).

[Cyneheard]

Well it looks like it's snap general election time. If a Brexit-Tory voting compact happens they probably win if not parliment will probably be too divided to do anything expect second refferendum or another GE. It depends if Farage wants attention or wants Brexit (it's obvious EU would never cave on backstop so Farage could just make BJ to promise to go for it).

Agreed that this is going to lead to an October election. If the regional parties + Labour/Lib Dems are smart, a second referendum needs to be everyone's end game - it's clear Parliament is too divided on the details to end up with the current deal. But the political need to separate Labour and LibDems' plans from one another may make this difficult. 

This whole process has had a lot of wishful thinking about Britain's ability to fiat "better" outcomes - where better is the subjective assessment of each MP or faction within the different parties, which is partly why May's WD agreement went nowhere. If the UK was going to follow through on Brexit, that was your only option. Yes, it might have been Brexit In Name Only at first, but that's what happens when you peacefully undo 50 years of cooperation without having everything fall apart in the interim.

It didn't hurt that everyone was also planning for post-Brexit politics and weren't willing to sacrifice their own careers and agendas (they'd happily sacrifice someone else's) to get Brexit done in a way that might have made sense.

Farage has the political equivalent of the dog chasing the truck and finally catching it - now what is he supposed to do? Politically he might be better off being mad at the Tories for "betraying Brexit," especially if he doesn't know what he'd advocate for if they do leave and even more especially if it's No Deal and a mess. "Oh, but MY version of No Deal would have worked out great" is not a particularly salient argument.

[Mr. Cairo]

Brexit Party has said they'd only work with the Tories if Boris campaigns on a no deal Brexit. Which he (probably) wont. But if he does, and they do, that should be enough for Labour+LD+Green+SNP+PC to agree not to field candidate against eachother. They would each face an existential threat if they split each other's vote with BP and the Conservatives working together.

All this assumes that Labour will vote with BoJo for a new election. If Corbyn thinks that he can win a VoC, he'll go for that instead.