[SPOILERS] scooter's thread: England

[scooter]

Also, I had a chat with Rowain... Was interesting. I'll summarize, and request the chat logs if you want them.

Eastern Theater:

1. Had some idle chat and theorizing on the eastern alliance structure. Shared my view of an R/T forming, but that Amelia doesn't like it, so it seems unlikely.

2. He commented that Russia has been oddly quiet, which we both agreed was disconcerting.

3. Rowain said both Amelia and Lewwyn seemed to be hinting at working with Russia. I asked where he got the Lewwyn thing from, and he said it was something like Lewwyn was calling Amelia a "hater" and Rego "cool" - which we agreed is about as clear as it gets with Lewwyn .

4. Rowain theorized that Amelia/Lewwyn are colluding, both pretending to work with Regoarrar whilst plotting against him. I commented that Lewwyn might be dropping the role-play with Amelia, whilst she just makes negative comments about it for cover. This makes a load of sense actually. Good thought. In the end though, we're still not sure what's going on over there.

Western Theater:

1. He brought up the idea of dividing the land 2/2/2 - where he gets Portugal and Marseilles. This is awfully convenient since he's sending just one unit while myself and uberfish are committing much more. Arguably, I'm committing the most. I kinda brushed it off by saying that he gets Marseilles, and that we'll discuss the rest later. I just need him to stay on board for at least today most importantly and then we can keep the pieces together tomorrow.

2. He apparently brought it up the same to Uberfish. Uberfish was more firm, telling him if he wanted 2 territories he'd need to do more than send 1 unit.

3. He started pushing the idea of an EI alliance that involves me stabbing Germany, and us taking down Germany next. I'm not ruling anything out, but I've built more of a rapport with Germany thus far, so I'm hesitant. He made a good case though, and it'd be foolish of me to rule it out this early. Basically though, all 3 of us recognizes that into the mid-game, and EGI alliance can't last. Where am I supposed to get my centers? It'll need to be from Germany or Italy. I'd prefer Italy given that Uberfish has been more open with me thus far so I trust him more (Rowain feels slightly opportunistic, though iin his defense he sort of has to be with Italy). That said, Germany is easier to stab than Italy, and it's darn near impossible for Italy to stab me for quite some time.

----

Also chatted with Uberfish quickly. I notified him of Rowain's attempts to float an EI alliance with a stab on him. Figured that was a good approach, and said that I expected Rowain to offer the same to Uberfish. Uberfish confirmed that he did the same thing...

So Rowain is clearly playing both sides, but then again, who isn't right now ... I do think it makes much more sense for him to align with me (thus he may prefer me if myself and Germany come calling), but I still need to be wary. Fun stuff.

[scooter]

You know, on further thought, I agree with Gustaran. You can tell us tonight why you picked what you did, but this way I don't have to worry about spoilers, cause I can't spoil what I don't know!

I just have to work on my patience, but PBEM's have taught me that anyway, I hope.

Yeah that's what I'm leaning towards too. More fun that way.

[Mardoc]

Aren't you, um, counting your chickens before they're hatched, here? Nakor's not dead yet.

[scooter]

Aren't you, um, counting your chickens before they're hatched, here? Nakor's not dead yet.

Yes and no. Part of the game kinda requires counting your chickens before they're hatched. If I wait to discuss it before Nakor's dead, I could find myself on the wrong side of a G/I alliance, in which case my game would get much more difficult. Also, discussing it with both players helps ensure that none of them flip sides and save Nakor... If a 3v1 holds together, Nakor will die, it's just a matter of how long he can stall. Generally, when you get stuck like that, you stall as best you can and try to flip someone on the other side with a good offer or something, which is why I want this offensive to move quickly .

But that's why it's a good idea to count your chickens somewhat, because if not, you run the risk of getting left out of mid-game alliances. If I put it all off until Nakor's dead and Uberfish and Rowain get talking, I'm in trouble.

[scooter]

I'm going to go ahead and make some projections for the Fall turn on the stuff going on in the East, with some explanations for why each player may act that way. I have hardly any idea what's going on in the east, so if my theory is correct (that they don't really know either and/or haven't figured it out yet), then this should be a pretty good guess. This can also serve as a "what to watch for" post for the upcoming turns. I'm ignore E/F/G for now as I've discussed it to death, but I'll include Italy. Here it is:



Russia - Of all people, Russia is the only player on the board who is in danger of getting 0 supply centers. This isn't necessarily shocking, but it definitely could be making Regoarrar a bit nervous. The way this could happen is if Austria and Turkey decide to work together to screw him and support each other into Rumania, resulting in 1 center apiece for the two of them and 0 for Russia. My guess though results in 1 center apiece for each of them, so as you can tell, I'm not quite convinced. Still though, if Rowain's theory is correct (Lewwyn and Amelia are close), then it's very possible. I'm getting off-topic though.

Point being, Regoarrar pretty much has to support himself into Rumania to ensure he gets a center - Uberfish will bounce him in Sweden. Warsaw->Galicia is just a guess with nothing else, but if he's close with Austria, War->Ukr could happen instead. I suppose War-Sil is possible, but only if he's got a solid alliance, which I doubt. So War->Gal seems most likely. His one problem is he's likely leaving the Baltic sea open to Amelia if she decides to take it... Speaking of...


Turkey - Has one center locked down, but I'm betting she goes for Greece and orders Con->Bul in case it succeeds. This would be a strong start for Turkey if possible, allowing Amelia to be able to afford to get a fleet into the Aegean, while giving her control of the Black Sea. She would then be in a strong negotiating position with Russia and Austria, although with things potentially strained with Russia. If she orders Ank->Con instead, we'll all freak out, as that very likely means alliance with Russia.

Good scenarios for Turkey are anything that involves getting the Black Sea and/or getting 2 centers. The death scenario for Turkey is Russia getting Black Sea and Rumania, which likely only happens with Austrian cooperation, which again, is death for Turkey unless Rowain/Uberfish heavily interfere which, yeah, isn't happening.


Austria - He's got some center locked down. He'll likely repeat his Trieste/Vienna orders from last time, as they give him Italy/Russian security. Serbia on the other hand loses nothing by going to Greece. He can't get 2 centers, but getting Greece and the extra unit give him leverage which makes it easier to get Serbia the following year. I'm guessing Turkey will not allow it, but we'll see. Watch out for Turkey being sneaky and ordering Bul->Ser, which would be quite bad for Lewwyn.

The key to watch for Austria is if he strays from these orders and gets more aggressive, for example, him and Regoarrar ignoring Galicia would heavily hint at A/R cooperation, and Tri->Alb would do the same to an extent (or at lower likelihood of A/T cooperation). Actually, I think I'd order Tri->Alb if I was him no matter what, as Italy can't get into Trieste on year 1. So I'd actually consider shifting my projection to Tri->Alb, but I'll keep it as-is.


Italy - I believe Italy will hold in Piedmont, giving Uberfish a high chance of walking into Burgundy, which combined with a successful convoy into France for me (not a guarantee) would equal complete death to Nakor. Obviously a Brest convoy would speed it up, but a Belgium convoy would be more dangerous. Italy may still move into Marseilles, but I get the feeling he may hold. Still though, he admitted he may flip a coin. Rowain will definitely take the freebie at Tunis, and he'll also have to move to Venice to cover from Lewwyn. The only move to watch for is the Piedmont->Marseilles move, as it is nearly as critical as my English Channel decision.


Should be an interesting turn!

[Mardoc]

Hah! I guessed right - and so did you, apparently.

Nakor looks to be in a world of trouble. And I can't quite figure out what's going on in the east

[scooter]

Yessssssss!

Don't really have time to write anything now, but suffice it to say I'm happy . Things went perfectly. I'll write up some sort of analysis either tonight or tomorrow.

[scooter]

Explaining my move

My reasoning for Brest was pretty simple. I was 100% convinced I was going to do it, and then I had a chat with Nakor this morning. Nakor told me he wanted me to vacate the English Channel and move my fleet into Belgium. I told him by chat that I was not going to do that, and I needed to convoy into Europe rather than getting stranded - all that stuff. Nakor understood, and then asked me to promise that I would move into Belgium. I told him I wouldn't promise that. Actually, here's the chat, it's short enough that anyone can read it:

<snip off-topic stuff>
Nakor: 9:29 AM have you made your mind up about your moves?
me: yeah i think so. honestly, i cant really afford not to convoy
so i'm going to...
9:30 AM so i mean if you choose to build a fleet in brest in response to me still being in the english channel, then i can live with that i suppose
but i dont want to get caught with an army still in england and no ships in the waters at end of year 1
9:32 AM Nakor: I can understand that. Can you promise me you'll convoy to Belgium?
(and make me believe it?)
9:33 AM me: hah, well for your sake, i'm just going to promise nothing... i realize this leaves you guessing a little bit, but i'm ok with that
9:34 AM you, uberfish, and rowain have all asked wher ei'm going... and no one knows
so i'm just going to keep it that way. its fun like that
Nakor: hah... trying to get a working and trusting relation here... you're not helping a lot.
Eventually you'll need to trust someone...
9:36 AM me: yeah i understand that... i'll admit i've had second thoughts on an e/f alliance. so i'm just going to play year 1 on my own "side" and see what things look like when the smoke clears
Nakor:
9:37 AM me: yeah i didn't think you'd be particularly thrilled about that. hah
________________________________________ 10 minutes
9:48 AM Nakor: ok...
well got to go...
me: okay, i'll ttyl...

So after this chat, I was having some second thoughts, as I didn't lie to him - which sort of tipped him off that I could go to Brest. So I had some serious second thoughts, but I still went with it. Here's why:


1. If I'm Nakor, I absolutely order Mao-Por in this situation. It's his only way to get 2 supply centers (short of risking Marseilles for Belgium, but for simplicity we'll ignore that scenario), so given a potential dogpile, he HAS to risk it. I figure he's a good enough player that he recognizes he needs to take a chance at an unknown quantity in me.

2. The payoff for capturing Brest is huge. I get 2 centers (strong for England), Nakor gets 1, I get an army on the mainland with a fleet still in the Channel, AND he is wayyy out of position. Everything is great.

3. The drawback for a standoff in Brest is not that bad. Sure I would only get 1 center, but so would France... Getting multiple centers is more important for France in this scenario, and he'd be facing Germany with +2 and Italy with +1, so it's imperative that he gets 2 to have any sort of leverage for flipping an alliance. If he guessed right and went Brest, that's fine - no big deal.


So all that seemed to outweight the prospect of going for Belgium, and I'm glad I went for it. Happy how things worked out. Nakor won't be though...

[scooter]

Okay, I'm going to run through each of these moves for everyone else and jot down some thoughts:



(Grouping Russia/Turkey together somewhat as their moves are very related)

Russia/Turkey - The Bot->Swe and Ukr->Rum were moves I predicted correctly, and War->Ukr was not particularly surprising. The one that caught me off-guard was the move from Sev->Black Sea. This puts Russia in a commanding position with regards to Turkey. Where he places his army will be critical. I'm really hoping he does NOT place in St. Petersburg, as it puts Norway at risk. What also surprised me is that he chose to go into Rumania with no support. This one confuses me, as when you are running the risk of 0 centers, you definitely want that support. If he got stalemated, he would have been stuck with 0 centers. It makes it look an awful lot like Regoarrar just stabbed on a Russia/Turkey alliance... Surprising. More on that with Turkey's moves:

Projected placement: Army Sevastapool - explained above

Turkey - Turkey's only going to get 1 center due to Austria's moves. Turkey's move of Ankara->Constantinople is a very pro-Russia move, which is interesting because Sev->Bla (especially when Sev could've supported Ukr->Rum!!) is very anti-Turkey. Russia is now in a commanding position. If I were Regoarrar I'd place army in Sev, and he'd gain Bulgaria in the spring and possibly Ankara in the Fall if things went his way. Anyways, Turkey will now have to prepare itself for Russian aggression it appears... Given the bounce between Turkey and Austria, there definitely is no A/T alliance, so Amelia may need to pursue that. Not sure how Turkey will come out of this alive - this was a fantastic turn for Regoarrar if you don't count the Sweden bounce (which he knew was coming).

Projected Placement: Army Smyrna - allows him to support himself into Arm and hold off Russia. If there's a R/T agreement, Fleet Smyrna instead.

Austria - I think this turn for Austria a lot. Only gets 1 center, but he put Turkey in a really awkward position of having an army stranded in Greece. He can now defeat Greece in the Spring and reposition himself based on whatever happens. I'm guessing he may align himself with Russia... Hard to say though.

Projected Placement: Army Trieste - counters Italy


Italy - Italy behaved pretty much exactly how I expected, although I forgot to mention the possibility of supporting himself into Venice, which ended up not mattering. Him not ordering Pie-Mar was critical, as it allowed Uberfish to get into Burgundy. Glad he followed through on that. Rowain's challenge now is to try to get some spoils from France (he can get Marseilles, but Uberfish and I want to deny him the rest), as well as turn his attention to Austria. He also will try to insert himself into the E/G alliance and turn one of us against each other. Fun.

Projected Placement: Fleet Naples - Important for Italy to get a naval force going so he can influence either France/Iberia or the Balkans.


Germany - Nothing of note here, gets 2 centers and gets into Burgundy.

Projected Placement: Army Munich, Army Berlin - not so sure about the second one, but he needs to pressure Russia next, so I imagine he'll tag-team in Scandanavia and move in on Russia. We'll see - I'll talk to him tomorrow.


France - He's in serious trouble. He will probably be the first eliminated unless a huge backstab happens. He'll get an army in Paris (literally his only choice), but that will fall in the Spring moves, and then his death will be a mere formality. His moves were not bad, but he was simply beaten. His absolute best play would have been Mar-Spa, Bur-Bel, and Mao-Bre, but even then he was probably going to be in trouble - he just would've survived a year longer or so.

Projected Placement - Army Paris - see above

[Gustaran]

Of course I am rooting for Germany, but I wanted to mention that IMHO your thread is the most instructive one.