Tsar Regoarrarr of Russia

[Zed-F]

Strategically I think the timing on A's stab was not the best; they only got one SC out of it. And a large hostile G is still a bigger problem for A than a friendly R who was going out of its way to be charitable on resource splitting. That's probably why Rego wasn't really too worried about it. But now we have a lot of units up north no longer doing us much good.

So now the partners shuffle again! Is A going to try to buddy up to G now? How much of our south can we keep with all our units scattered like this?

[Sareln]

Ok, I'm confused by how Austria stabbed us:

Bul-Rum and Rum-Sev was meant to pick up an SC...but then why did they order Gre-Aeg? That saved Con for us, which meant we don't lose any troops.

Also, nice work Germany, hitting Sweden and Brest from England.

England: -1 (Disband F Fin? There's too many Germans and Russians around to allow for that fleet to do much good)
Germany: +2 (F Kie, A Ber?)
Italy: +2 (F Nap, A Rom?)
France: -3, Dead.
Austria: +1, likely F Tri or A Vie.
Turkey: -1, Disband F Aeg

As a matter of record (you can see it in the log) Austria attempted F Gre -> Bul(SC)

[Cyneheard]

Heck, they don't even get an SC for their trouble, because we were worried enough to order Gal-Rum! I'm more concerned about holding Turkey than I am about Mos/Sev proper; we can get troops over fairly quickly if needed. I think we need Italy to do Ion-Eas if we're going to hold Turkey; that would make a big difference in securing Ank-Smy in the fall to eliminate Turkey once and for all.

Ok, let's see:

Possibility 1)
Italy, England, Russia: What does this do?
It keeps Germany and Austria busy, while we try to consolidate and get that damn army out of Sev.
Advantage:
a) Germany is a runaway, so we need a coalition against them.
b) We have no direct conflict with either of those two teams, so it should be easy to organize.
Disadvantage:
Germany will still be blowing away the field; England is in for a world of hurt as their fleets try to consolidate. Holding Portugal will be difficult. Holding Norway is impossible. A 3- or 4-center England is no great danger, when Germany can easily field 4 fleets to hit wherever they wish.

Possibility 2)
Italy, Germany, Russia
This puts a TON of pressure on Austria, who'd likely crumble...if the German and Italian troops could get into position. I don't think this will work terribly well because Austria is not going to get hurt easily.

[Cyneheard]

Here's the email I want to send to Lewwyn:

We GIVE you guys a supply center when you asked for it, and you decide that a MegaGermany (seriously, they're at 9 SC already, and Norway is a lost cause for England, so 10SC at a minimum) is less of a problem than a helpful Russia that was dealing with German and English forces in the north, limiting our room to expand? And you don't even get another SC for the stab.

[Zed-F]

Rego is still running the show though, yes? He hasn't posted to this thread in some time.

[Cyneheard]

Yes. I've mucked things up a bit this week, I think. He's on vacation, not sure when he gets back.

[Zed-F]

Oh, I thought Rego was only supposed to be gone a couple days, I didn't know he'd asked you to take over for him. I guess we could have talked more about the moves if it would have helped... but Rego's been pretty much deciding the moves on his own as far (as I can tell anyway) so I assumed that policy was still in effect.

[Cyneheard]

He's been around some (I haven't gotten to posting all the diplo flying back and forth, and it's mostly been him trying to communicate, and me following up).

[Zed-F]

Please do post that stuff when you get a chance, I feel like I can't help the team much when I don't know what's going on.

[Cyneheard]

Chat with Scooter:

me: Well, that was interesting.
scooter: yeah... you coudl say that
me: I don't get why Austria thought now was the right time to stab us; Germany's in the driver's seat atm
scooter: uberfish twisted my arm into stabbing italy, which apparently was a front to stab me. nicely played by him
me: and you didn't really stab Italy all that much mostly because Ger didn't help you
scooter: i was tied pretty closely to germany but obviously not anymore. well yeah. he was going to support me into marseilles
me: where are you disbanding, do you think?
scooter: well thats what i was going to bring to you guys. heres the deal: looks like germany and austria are closer than i expected... obviously
me: I will say, I haven't talked with Rego since these orders went through. Yeah.
scooter: germanys in a commanding spot here
me: Just a little.
scooter: i'm going to be in a sliiightly awkward spot trying to defend myself. and austrias got you in a tough (though more managable) position
me: Aye, Sev is annoying.
scooter: germany is the heavy favorite unless something is done
me: Agreed. The key is Italy. We need Austria tied down and Italy can help us secure Turkey
scooter: and i know you arent thrilled that i've moved in on you like i have, but i've never broken a promise (unless you count me bouncing stp this year, but that obviously was never going to succeed) right. i'd like to form some sort of england-russia-italy alliance to keep this game from spiraling out of control
scooter: my chance of winning is very low
me: tempting
scooter: so my goal at this poitn is survival and revenge. you and italy still have shots at winning, but with my awkward positioning (north sea is wide open - i totally have my pants down here) i cant really barring crazy luck. and if we don't form some sort of alliance here, the winner is probably 80%+ going to be germany or austria. germany has told me repeatedly he doesnt trust you guys and will not work with you... and austria - well lewwyn has been lewwyn - and i'm sure you're not happy with how he's played. my push with italy will be to get him to back off in the ocean and for him to help me on western europe... if he backs out of spain he can push fleets and control austrias west flank that way.
honestly for which unit to disband, i'm fairly flexible. if i can get you and italy both on board (going to send an email to italy pushing for it - been working on it already), it may actualy make sense to KEEP my finland fleet to keep uberfish honest.
me: He's so center-starved, though, that getting Spain may be difficult
scooter: though deleting finland makes the most sense
me: Germany's going to charge into Bur, I suspect. and then France is going to be really tough to crack. What if you and Italy agreed to pull out of Por/Spa? Leave them as-is, but empty? That frees up 2 units
scooter: thats what i'm pushing with rowain. i'm going to propose that he orders spa-lyo and i order por-mao
me: right. and Mao-Eng
scooter: basically my sale to him
me: then Mar S Gas keeps that guy there and you can crack Brest in the fall
scooter: is that if he orders spa-por, he gets center... and germany will probably get norway and all the english isles which is a really bad trade for him. right thats the plan and i think he may go for it
me: I wonder if Lvp is the choice to delete??? Use the armies you've got, and fleets to secure the oceans?
scooter: it may be, yes. nao-nwg and mao-eng will put me in position to defend my home centers
me: We'd be looking at Nao-Nwg and Stp-Bot to pressure Nwy/Swe
scooter: he'll have nth, but me keeping my fleet in finland will threaten sweden enough to keep him from charging everything in yeah
me: And Germany's 2 builds = pressure
scooter: i'm guessing he builds f kiel and a berlin
me: agreed. A Ber means that War is in trouble if we aren't careful
scooter: unless he's closer with austria than feared, then f berlin would be scary but probably slightly crazy. yeah
me: War, Sev, and Smy are our ideal goals for this year
scooter: yeah sounds about right. can you really take sev AND smy?
me: the Ion fleet helps some
scooter: yeah true. well, what is your level of interest in ERI assuming italy says yes which yes is still an assumption and not a guarantee
me: Me, speaking for just me and not Rego, thinks that it's our only option. We can't work with Austria so soon, most likely
scooter: thats kind of my take on your situation too
me: not after we let them get Rum and then go for Sev.
scooter: yeah
me: And Germany...Germany's too powerful.
scooter: and germanys not going to work with you no matter what he says... his F Kiel build was just to screw with you really - to get you to talk
me: They're expecting ERI vs GA
scooter: and yeah there's that too yeah
me: and truly fear EARI vs G
scooter: and honestly ERI vs GA still could work out for them if they get some luck yeah. so my thought is to form ERI, get through a year alive (which would build some trust between us all if we follow through on our respective deals)... and then try to pick away... both at the centers near us, and try to pry austria/germany apart considering that lewwyn is the one rookie here and his quirky role-play distorts things it's possible
me: aye, it's possible
scooter: obviously you cant fully commit without regoarrar's input, but am i safe to say to italy that you are definitely interested in an agreement like i've proposed?
me: Oh yeah, definitely. I'm shooting Rowain an email as well.
scooter: just drafting the message to him, and it'll be easier to talk him into it if i have strong approval from you. ok sounds good
me: And in Diplomacy, there's two kinds of lying:
1) The lying that hurts your contact
2) The lying that doesn't
scooter: yep
me: "No, we're not going into StP" was definitely #2 mostly because we knew that was probably blowing smoke
scooter: yeah. well to be frank with you, in my split with uberfish, stp was going to be his problem and not mine. haha
me: no worries.

To Italy:

Well, as you can see, Austria stabbed us. Since it seems most likely that they did this at Germany's behest, we have the two biggest powers working together. If we're going to have a chance together, then we need to start working together (and likely with England? Scooter says he's going to be talking to you about W Europe: ERI is, in my opinion, our best hope while G and A are working together). I suspect (and we have some time to decide/discuss) that Ion-Eas or Ion-Aeg to help us secure Turkey to keep that pressure on Austria is what we're going to need.

Disclaimer: Rego may disown some or all of what I say, but I think there's little reason to believe that anything but ERI is possible for any of us to have a chance against the German Menace.

Cyneheard of Russia.