[SPOILERS] Lewwyn, The Oblivious Archduke of Austria

[Lewwyn]

Hey sorry I haven't updated. It's going to be an interesting turn. As you saw last turn I stabbed Russia. I had a 100% chance for one build and a 10% chance for 2 builds. In the end Sev was just too tempting. I played it fairly cool throughout. I don't think Cyneheard suspected, though I think Rego did. (Cyneheard was doing the talking while rego was on a business trip. He's like the king of easy backstabs... Seriously as soon as Cyneheard was doing the talking I was like, "Ok, yeah I'm just gonna walk into Sev.")

Anyway I didn't build my fleet in exchange for support from Rowain. Germany is also supporting me. As long as both of them stay in line I should be good. By the end of the year I'll be up at least one more build. I may lose Bul during the summer, but I'll get that back. Then Russia will have to choose between Sev and War. It will be interesting.

I made one mistake last time too. I moved that army to Alb when I should've sent it to Ser. It's probably the single biggest mistake I've made in the game. IMO.

Okay off to bed we'll see how I do in the morning. I'm hoping to get one of Russia's armies disbanded.

[Lewwyn]

Heh, SUCCESS!

Got his army.

[Lewwyn]

I wanted to backlog a couple conversations for you all.

Here's what Rego said after I moved into Sev last fall:

Rego: hey there
Lewwyn: XD
Rego: cmon man
i don't mind getting stabbed
but you gotta at least do it right!!
we GAVE you a sc
Lewwyn: well I figured you would come at rum actually
I mean easily do it and say its defensive
Rego: if i had wanted to keep rumania, i would have told you / asked you not to take it
the way to get ahead in this game is to find a good ally and go
i thought you had one in us
maybe you've got a tight relationship withi G - dunno
(btw my laptop keeps spontaneously rebooting so if i disapper that's why)
Lewwyn: well not really tight with anyone
What I should have done was take War last fall and gotten 3 builds
Rego: eh
Lewwyn: thought about it
Rego: depends on your relationship with germany
i think you're understating it
which makes sense
but if you're not
then you stabbed way too early
Lewwyn: I have no concept of how long these games last
Rego: it depends
it can be over by 1908 or so
i played one game that went till like 1950
which was a huge aberration but a lot of fun
that one had a ton of alliance shifting
i played turkey and hovered between 3 and 6 SCs the whole game
Rego: are you still going to build your fleet?
Lewwyn: seems a bit silly now doesn't it
but
yes
XD
Rego: i know how it goes with austria
hard to get those fleets out
[color=“Lime"]Lewwyn:[/color] have to take the opportunity when I have it
Rego: right
so what are we doing now?
Lewwyn: dunno
I actually wasn't planning on stabbing you
it was just Sev was so open
Rego:
i should have told you i was ordering gal-rum
that way you know you're only going to get 1 build anyways
good news is i'm back in town tomorrow night
Lewwyn: well I thought there was a 90% chance you would
but there was like 10% chance you wouldn't
if you hadn't that might've been all she wrote I suppose
Rego: yeah that would have made things difficult
Lewwyn: not that they aren't difficult now heh

I thought this was funny because he basically was saying I hadn't stabbed right. I wonder what he thinks now that I've destroyed his army this turn? He's hasn't sent me anything.

Also heres a nice message I got from Scooter before last turn:

Lewwyn,

Apparently things are coming along nicely for you. I was chatting with someone the other day and the general consensus is that considering you're the one new Diplo player and you have one of the tougher countries, you've played a very impressive game. Hats off to you for that, you've gotten yourself into a very nice position.

Unfortunately, one person is in an even better position, and that's Uberfish. He's at 9 centers (18 are required to win) and I'm wayyyy out of position after being stabbed by him, so if I go down, that's Norway + my 3 home centers for him to bring him to 13... And honestly, I'm not sure I'll have the firepower to stop him unless I get some serious help. That's bad news for me obviously, but to be frank, it's also bad news for you, as his next round of builds will be a host of armies, at which point his lead will not be beatable. Honestly, there's probably a 1-2 year window left for keeping him from running away completely, and I'm asking you to consider putting some pressure on his home centers while it's still possible. His fleets will empty out, and it's likely Ruhr will head west into Burgundy, leaving his home centers in a vulnerable position.

You can put quite a bit of pressure on him, though it may require you to come to some sort of agreement with Russia. I know that what you can do may be limited, but if you want a shot at winning (and honestly, you are in the 2nd best spot out of anyone and it's not all that close), you may have to contribute in the containment of Uberfish. You could of course work with him, but if you do, he will almost certainly win.. Taking my home centers + Norway will get him to 13, at which point it will be trivially easy for him to take Marseilles + Spain + Portugal getting him to 16... And then he just gets 2 from wherever he wants, which isn't too difficult when you have 16 units on the board.

Sorry to be so blunt about it, but I needed to just lay out the situation for you and let you do with it what you will. Please at least take these things into consideration.

scooter

I didn't respond. He's basically telling me that he made a mess and I should help him clean it up. He created the runaway by getting stabbed. I feel like I'm being blamed for allowing Germany to get ahead!

I still haven't responded to this.

No diplo with Turkey. I have a long, long diplo with Rowain. We basically agreed to an alliance and then discussed moves. I'll give you the formation of the alliance. This took place after the Sev stab and before the fleet build. It's a long one but if you want to understand the dynamics, this will give you a good picture:

Rowain: Hi Lewwyn
Lewwyn: hey
I'm probably going to build a fleet in Tri FYI
Rowain: A fleet is not to my liking
Lewwyn: Yep
but I won't attack you
Rowain: given the past turn I'm not going to like a FLET in ADR with Armies in TYR and TRI
Fleet
Lewwyn: I need a second fleet to fight in turkey
Rowain: I would rather think you need an Army else you lose what you gained in SEV
Of course if you are a close ally to Germany things are different
Lewwyn: well
you are going after England now yes?
Rowain: I'm not going after you
Lewwyn: since they're the ones now stabbed
Rowain: And as it is Egland might go after me. can't defend SPA right now
Lewwyn: yeah
you understand what I mean about needing the second fleet thought right?
Rowain: So if ENG and GER come to an agreement it might still be curtain for me
Yeah of course a second fleet might come handy for you
[color="Lime']Lewwyn:[/color] but dangerous for you
Rowain: exactly
Lewwyn: russia was telling me not to build it so you'd stay friendly
but
Rowain: OTOH you also see that you need an Army if you want to finish Russia
Lewwyn: XD
so
not sure whats going to happen
what will you do with your Ion fleet
Rowain: I want to keep ION mine it is my safeguard
As long as there are fleets in the east
The more fleets you have the uneasier I feel
But if you awant say a convoy or a support into AEG or do see possibilities to really work together
It would be easier for me to offer you real assistance if the A TYR were still an A TRI
got my answer ?
Lewwyn: sry food just got here
one of the containers spilled half my late lunch into the bag
its indian...
Rowain: there is indian food in Peking?
Lewwyn: yes
okay
lets go ahead and form a steadfast alliance on this then
For your cooperation I will build an army instead of a fleet
do you want to work with me?
Rowain: Yes
If we can both live with the results
Lewwyn: pretty much I want a little safety in return for a little safety
Rowain: yep
Lewwyn: you have your hands full with England
I have mine full with Russia
What I propose is I will build an army and not only that I'll build it in Vie
in exchange I'd like your fleet in Gre to support me
Rowain: into AEG ?
Lewwyn: not yet
Rowain: my fleet is in ION
you wouldn't be happy if it were in GRE
Lewwyn: I actually want you to support my army in Alb into Gre
Rowain: So you want to get your fleet dislodged ?
Lewwyn: I'm planning to move the Bul army into rum
and the fleet into bul
I guess if your fleet just held that would be fine too
no chance of dislodging then
Rowain: Don't tell me too much
Lewwyn: Already did
Rowain: But if you want my support into GRE you get it
So do we want to work together an share the spoils?
Lewwyn: technically I just don't want you to be attacking me
Rowain: Well thats clear but
Lewwyn: you could be more useful?
Rowain: I can move my fleet into EAS
Lewwyn: I rent out your fleet as a mercenary?
Rowain: something iin the way yes.
Lewwyn: okay
You help me secure that SE corner and you take smy
how doe that sound?
Rowain: How about I help you a bit more and get GRE & SMY?
SMY alone is far away and not defendable
Lewwyn: what about just greece then?
Rowain: depends what further plans are on the table?
Lewwyn: you mean past this?
Rowain: England stands no chance against Germany
Lewwyn: right
so you'll try to grab as much of England as you can
Rowain: So Ger will have 13 centers then
Is ee little possibilities besides POR
see
An Italian Unit on the british island with a lot of germans around it is not a really happy Unit
Lewwyn: right
so we move into German proper?
Rowain: would you be willing to do it or would the temptation of nice Italian cities be too much for you
Lewwyn: german Italy they look the same to me
Rowain: but mine are a lot closer
Lewwyn: and therefore more easily watched over
I can't do shit about Germany
unless I've go a safe backside
Rowain: Thats clear
Lewwyn: So if you help me secure turkey I can help you take on Germany
Rowain: It's nothing for turn 1904 but it is always worth to look into the future
As I see it either you or Germany will win.
Lewwyn: orly
Rowain: Or more precise. It is possible tat in a few years. ermany has everything north the line BRE-PAR-MUN-WAR-MOS and the rest is devided between us 2
That means GR has then 16 centers
GER
Lewwyn: hmm
anyway yeah its probably best if you don't support into Gre
Move into the EAS then?
get Russia to support you in the fall into SMY then stab him in the spring?
Rowain: I doubt he will believe that
Lewwyn: well if you move into EAS either way you'll be in position
I'll move my army in Tyr to Tri and try to take Rum in the spring
Rowain: I can support you Fleet into AEG if you prefer
Lewwyn: well
Rowain: EAS, or supporting you are all possibilities
Lewwyn: don't want Turkey dead yet
at least not this spring
actually whats your take on that
are we better off with Turkey dead in the spring
I was thinking Russia could be occupied with Turkey in the spring
Rowain: Hard to say I had little contact with Amelia most of the game
And her fleet can become a headache if she decides to support RUS for a longer live
I don't know how much she 'likes' you
I rather got the impression she didn't take you RP very well
Lewwyn: yaw
I'll thinka bout it
anyway you'll see my gesture of good faith with the build
Rowain: And I will honor it
you know if ENG is faster at his 16 centers while we still straggle in the east he will move against me to get his solo-win
Lewwyn: well I won't let you die
Rowain: Don't need to be dead If he reaches 18 its game over

So you can see the alliance is formed off my build in Vie, and my promise to give Gre if he helps me take all of turkey. Also this is predicated on me turning on Germany as soon as the turkey corner is secured.


SO now I'm trying to convince Uber to support me into War so I can use Ukr to attack Sev. We'll see how that goes.


Also a note. I couldn't keep up the hip hop. Just too hard for others to understand me, and I'd rather try to win at this point.


EDIT: Crap the tags aren't working because I used the wrong font in word. Gimmie a minute to try and fix it

[Gustaran]

It's looking really good for you, when you started with all the Hip-Hop speech stuff I honestly thought the others would gang up on you first.
But maybe they underestimated you...

[Wyatan]

I made one mistake last time too. I moved that army to Alb when I should've sent it to Ser. It's probably the single biggest mistake I've made in the game. IMO.

Ah, OK.
I must confess I was kinda baffled by that move.

Another thing I cannot really explain is the Tyrolo-Bohemian dance (the Boh-Tyr last turn, and standoff this turn). Is that purely defensive ? Do you have agreements with Italy / Germany there ?

Interesting situation with your Ukraine army. Can be used for Moscow (although I'd bet on a War - Mos move by Rego since he knows War is doomed), Sev, or to take War without German assistance...

Anyway, as others have said, impressive game for a first-timer.

[Lewwyn]

Ah, OK.
I must confess I was kinda baffled by that move.

Another thing I cannot really explain is the Tyrolo-Bohemian dance (the Boh-Tyr last turn, and standoff this turn). Is that purely defensive ? Do you have agreements with Italy / Germany there ?

Interesting situation with your Ukraine army. Can be used for Moscow (although I'd bet on a War - Mos move by Rego since he knows War is doomed), Sev, or to take War without German assistance...

Anyway, as others have said, impressive game for a first-timer.

Yeah, I own that mistake.

The Tyr-Boh standoff this turn disbanded Russia's army. If I hadn't done that he would have been able to retreat into Boh. But since an army attempted to enter the space during the turn he can't retreat there and boom, dead army.

Yeah, Ukr will be interesting. I'm thinking Sev at this point provided Germany agrees to support me.

[Lewwyn]

Turn worked out about how I suspected. I had told Italy to bounce with me in Tri, but in fact I think this works in my favor. Now I can build an army without it raising Germany's suspicions.

I think I should be able to get another build by the end of the year. I can easily take Moscow next turn if I want. I'm thinking about delaying that however. I'd like to have Italy support me from Gre into AEG and then have the fleet support me into con in the fall. That only works if Russia can't support Con with his fleet. So I have to make sure that he supports Sev.

In summary:
Spring:
War - Mos
Ukr S Rum - Sev
Gre - Aeg

Fall:
War - mos
Ukr S Rum - Sev
Aeg S Bul -con

The object is to get my fleet in position to Support into Con for the fall. At this point Russia has to chose whether to Support Con or Sev with his fleet. Either way he loses one and I gain one. That may not seem like much but its at that point Russia has to disband an army and I can take him apart at will. It's slower but inexorable.

Now I have to wait 24 hours for retreats and a further 72 hours for builds and then a further 72 hours for spring according to Sareln, since he has business trips.

[Lewwyn]

I may be better off taking Moscow in the spring. I attack Moscow from Ukr with support from war. I cut support from Sev with an attack from Rum. Take moscow displace the army to lnv. Also I get Italy to support me into Aeg again. Possibly Russia attacks Rum with Sev with support from the sea. Rum is dislodged and retreats to Bud which has been vacated by an army moving to Gal. In the fall that army in Rum must retreat to Sev because its surrounded. If I attack Sev with Moscow I can bounce the army and destroy it. if he doesn't retreat I take Sev instead. Also, he could support from Rum back into Sev to save the army but then he'd lose con without the fleet support. Possible scenarios leave me with Moscow and Con. All depends on Russia, but Russia simply has no good moves.

[Lewwyn]

Interesting...

Hi Lewwyn,

So.... it comes to this.

I have no further chance in this game (or at the most a very slim one). As it is impossible in this game (like Civ!) to fight on multiple fronts, I can only choose to fight on one. So, after looking at my options, as well as my relationships with the folks in this game, I have decided to side with you.

I put my units more or less on your command - do with them what you want. While I realize that I don't have much sway, it would be my preference to keep Sev and what I can fight for in Turkey (possibly with your help). But if you don't want that that's fine.

Walk into Moscow or St. Pete if you want. You've got spring to give me orders and then play cautious and wait till fall to give me more trust that I'm doing what I say I will (or what you say I will).

What do I bring, you might ask? #1 - you can have my centers whenever you want. It may make sense to keep them under Russian control while I move my units to the front (empty so you can take them whenever you want), but that's up to you. #2 - I have another southern fleet which you are short on (another army this winter I see). Sure Italy has fleets but he's going to want to be more of an equal with you - I'm more vassaly. #3 - if you want, I have a northern port that can harass Germany, if/when you feel that's appropriate

So there you have it - that's my sales pitch. My units are yours to command - let me know what you want

dan.
regoarrarr
russia

Well, I see this as an attempt for survival and an eventual stab. I'm not sure yet what I'll do with this info. Maybe I can get him to do something like I want his help and use those moves to kill him faster.

[Lewwyn]

I'm gonna tell Rego what to do dunno if he'll be happy about it. I'm hoping to end up taking Mos and Con this year and get two more builds. I want him to move out of Stp to Bol and from moscow to stp. I want him to attack Rum from Bal with support and take it. I'll retreat to Bud which is going to Gal. I'll also tell him to go SMY with Con to bounce with Italy.

Then in the fall I'll support my fleet into con. Support myself back into Rum. for 2 builds. He can convoy Stp into Swe, or move the army into Fin and the fleet into Swe. Either way cut German support and threaten those SCs.

By the end Rego will have to disband two hopefully the two in Turkey. Then I can have him go for Germany in the north.

Interesting possibilities. if he doesn't want to and fight me, he's still going to lose one SC this year, and eventually go down. There is no way I'm letting him keep 4-5 SCs. You wanna be a vassal I'm going to demand you demilitarize and be a small, nonthreatening vassal.

I'm pretty set in my moves, even if Rego doesn't do as I say, I'll take moscow and move into the Aeg with Italy's help. Turkey's fleet should get disbanded.