Uncommonly Good: A Story of Elves

[Gaspar]

Because I have little to lose at this point, I sent this off to Nicolae:

Hi Nicolae,

I noticed your conspicuous lack of response to our last entreaty regarding the Balseraphs. We just met the Hippus this turn, and their diplomacy seems to indicate that our suspicions regarding their military might were indeed correct, so no need to corroborate that any longer. Clearly, they're running away with this thing, Rawkking also indicates their starting lands were a might bit more fertile than ours. Not sure how Kyan always manages to get a good shake from the mapmakers, but he definitely did here yet again.

I write you to ask if you have violated the terms of our NAP by popping Pyre of the Seraphic or some other neutral dungeon that I do not yet have vision on. I ask because a named Str 8 Ogre is currently threatening the Ljosalfar city of Hash Pipe, and named Barbarian units only spawn from lairs. So either you popped one in violation of our NAP, or the clowns have. If the clowns have, and you have a NAP agreement with them you might want to reconsider what kind of a friend they might make. This is typical Kyan diplomacy of course. Guy is just a complete slimebag. You'll note that when I had similar opportunity I gave you the opportunity to sign a NAP first.

Anyway, assuming you did not in fact pop a dungeon, I'd like to reiterate my hopes for a friendly relationship with the Sheaim, because us fighting each other when Kyan is so blatantly far ahead of the rest of us does nobody any good. I firmly believe that any military action either of us might instigate should be in that direction, and we can worry about later, later. If you have signed a NAP with him, consider that popping an epic lair on your borders would be considered by just about anyone as a violation of a Non-aggression pact, and that whatever unit he might have had in the area threatening you is probably dead, given the named Ogre already has a promotion.

If of course this was you, consider the Elves very disappointed in your violation of our NAP.

Regards,
Gaspar

[Mardoc]

Here's demos. I'd give you the Hippus graphs, but I'm a bit demoralized on the game atm, so you'll have to wait until my thinking that it matters what we do at this point picks up.

Well...there's a couple things to say here. First, it seems clear that Kyan is not having it all his way diplomatically. RG may not be willing to challenge the menagerie head on, but he's definitely displeased by Kyan's progress and in a position to eventually do something about it. As was recently demonstrated by Ilios, even a seemingly awesome civ can be taken down if enough neighbors are willing to do something about it, and regardless of how nice a guy he is.

Second - do keep in mind, we're a late-game civ, in all sorts of ways. This turn was the first ever payoff for either Creative or Spiritual, popping our borders and enabling a revolt at need. We're the freaking elves, so our slow workers and Way of the Forests beeline also hurt badly in the early going, as does cottage econ instead of farm econ. Cre/Spi and our forest improvements will both start to pay off shortly, but there's no denying they put us behind early on. Contrast that with Expansive Financial Rhoanna, both bonuses that can pay off right away.

[NobleHelium]

He captured an elephant eh. Well that's definitely a lot of soldier points.

Anyway, I think you should tell RG to hold his warrior in place on that plains tile (not on the hill) for about five turns, and say that after that point he will be allowed through. Either we kill the ogre, or the ogre destroys the city, either way we should be able to let him through. And it'd be a friendly gesture, more or less. We can explain to him fully at that point.

The probabilities are interesting. So chance of winning outright is 18.5% or so. The more interesting probability, however, is probability of killing the ogre. That means we need to take that probability and sum it with the probability of the amount of hit points remaining for the ogre and our chances of killing it based upon those hit points. I'm not volunteering to do that math however.

Also I think we're misunderstanding Spirit Guide. I believe the way it works is that once the unit dies, half its experience moves to a random unit. So don't expect 2 promo warriors to be available for retaliation.

[Man Behind the Mask]

I've got to say, I like Rawkking's style:

Excellent! Somebody actually looking to have some fun. I hope we can get along famously.

Here's demos. I'd give you the Hippus graphs, but I'm a bit demoralized on the game atm, so you'll have to wait until my thinking that it matters what we do at this point picks up.

Had a quick look last night. Nothing particularly exciting, although I’m now going from memory (see below):

• Only civic change from the standard is Agrarianism, with the revolt fairly early.
  
• Food therefore looks good for a while but has settled down to below our level now he’s at the happy cap.
  
• GNP is good, as you’d expect for a financial civ. Looks like he has a commerce resource at the capital, and another at the second city. Surprised he hasn’t gone for Exploration to connect them up for the happy, unless they’re one of the types that get “unlocked” later (e.g. incense).
  
• Manufacturing is surprisingly, and consistently high.
  
• He’s got two or three more warriors than we have.
  

So, I checked, it is indeed -40% for crossing a river. Assuming I added up the modifiers correctly, and Sareln's spreadsheet works, this should be BB's odds:

Odds for the Brawler are not disastrous. I really hope the Ogre takes the worker-bait so we have a decent crew to finish the job a turn later. Was that with a shock promo (which I checked does work against Ogres)?

He captured an elephant eh. Well that's definitely a lot of soldier points.

According to the data DaveV provided, Elephants are actually zero soldier points. They can’t attack, so are not as valuable as some units, but that rating is one of the many peculiarities about the power stats.


And a final, very sad note. IT security policy in my office appear to have gone crazy and blocked a whole bunch of stuff (including photobucket and dropbox images and any web email provider!!). My input around here may be rather reduced, although my productivity at work will skyrocket! I have a horrible feeling that forums will be next on their hitlist.

[Mardoc]

Was that with a shock promo (which I checked does work against Ogres)?

It was with a generic +40%, since I assume we can get at least one of shock or guerrilla to work. If only combat bonuses multiplied instead of added...

[Gaspar]

Well...there's a couple things to say here. First, it seems clear that Kyan is not having it all his way diplomatically. RG may not be willing to challenge the menagerie head on, but he's definitely displeased by Kyan's progress and in a position to eventually do something about it. As was recently demonstrated by Ilios, even a seemingly awesome civ can be taken down if enough neighbors are willing to do something about it, and regardless of how nice a guy he is.

Second - do keep in mind, we're a late-game civ, in all sorts of ways. This turn was the first ever payoff for either Creative or Spiritual, popping our borders and enabling a revolt at need. We're the freaking elves, so our slow workers and Way of the Forests beeline also hurt badly in the early going, as does cottage econ instead of farm econ. Cre/Spi and our forest improvements will both start to pay off shortly, but there's no denying they put us behind early on. Contrast that with Expansive Financial Rhoanna, both bonuses that can pay off right away.

My demoralization is mostly related to the fact that we have a STR 8 Ogre bearing down on our second city at a time when we need to be focused on moving towards those later game advantages. We've already sacrificed a worker when we can't afford to and we're not growing in our new city to get military churned out faster. Even in the best case scenario, this Ogre bearing down on us has set us back a good bit. In the worst case scenario, it does all the things its already done, plus we lose a city. Also, even though we haven't made much use of it yet, I would say that Cre is definitely an early game trait, and even though Hippus are benefiting from it already I would say Fin is more a mid-late game trait. The issues I have are that we're falling on the wrong side of the luck-o-meter. Keep in mind, Arc/Sum is about as definitively late game a pairing as exists.

He captured an elephant eh. Well that's definitely a lot of soldier points.

Anyway, I think you should tell RG to hold his warrior in place on that plains tile (not on the hill) for about five turns, and say that after that point he will be allowed through. Either we kill the ogre, or the ogre destroys the city, either way we should be able to let him through. And it'd be a friendly gesture, more or less. We can explain to him fully at that point.

The probabilities are interesting. So chance of winning outright is 18.5% or so. The more interesting probability, however, is probability of killing the ogre. That means we need to take that probability and sum it with the probability of the amount of hit points remaining for the ogre and our chances of killing it based upon those hit points. I'm not volunteering to do that math however.

Also I think we're misunderstanding Spirit Guide. I believe the way it works is that once the unit dies, half its experience moves to a random unit. So don't expect 2 promo warriors to be available for retaliation.

Yeah, best case scenario for BB's death is that 3 of his 6 exp moves to a unit actually in Hash Pipe. That would allow for one more C1 jobber attack at the Ogre.

Excellent! Somebody actually looking to have some fun. I hope we can get along famously.


Had a quick look last night. Nothing particularly exciting, although I’m now going from memory (see below):

• Only civic change from the standard is Agrarianism, with the revolt fairly early.
  
• Food therefore looks good for a while but has settled down to below our level now he’s at the happy cap.
  
• GNP is good, as you’d expect for a financial civ. Looks like he has a commerce resource at the capital, and another at the second city. Surprised he hasn’t gone for Exploration to connect them up for the happy, unless they’re one of the types that get “unlocked” later (e.g. incense).
  
• Manufacturing is surprisingly, and consistently high.
  
• He’s got two or three more warriors than we have.
  

Odds for the Brawler are not disastrous. I really hope the Ogre takes the worker-bait so we have a decent crew to finish the job a turn later. Was that with a shock promo (which I checked does work against Ogres)?


According to the data DaveV provided, Elephants are actually zero soldier points. They can’t attack, so are not as valuable as some units, but that rating is one of the many peculiarities about the power stats.


And a final, very sad note. IT security policy in my office appear to have gone crazy and blocked a whole bunch of stuff (including photobucket and dropbox images and any web email provider!!). My input around here may be rather reduced, although my productivity at work will skyrocket! I have a horrible feeling that forums will be next on their hitlist.

That is not good news - am I going to have to start figuring stuff out for myself? But yeah, nice to see the Hippus want to have a good time.

It was with a generic +40%, since I assume we can get at least one of shock or guerrilla to work. If only combat bonuses multiplied instead of added...

I gave BB Guerrilla in case Mr. Ogre doesn't take the worker bait on the IT.

[Gaspar]

Here's Nicolae's reply:

Hi Gaspar,

Sorry about not replying to your query, my hands were tied regarding that. I felt that it wouldn't affect your plans too much, and figured you would meet them in a handful of turns.

I haven't popped any lairs in the agreement zone. I have no idea where the ogre is, has it approached from the west or the south? Have you confirmed that the Pyre is no longer intact? I haven't received the turn yet due to Aca's save issues.

Cheers,
Nic

Actually, I'd like to send him a reply that just says:

Dear Nicolae,



Gaspar

Actually, I think I might need some help from the rest of the High Council for this. One of my flaws in diplomacy is once a player has frustrated me/lied to me, I have a tendency to write them off and get very antagonistic with them. Those of you who've read more than one of my games know that antagonizing people is a real personal strong suit. So, team, can anyone convince me that Nicolae is worth talking to?

I need to whip something up for the Hippus, I'll see what I can do.

[Mardoc]

Actually, I think I might need some help from the rest of the High Council for this. One of my flaws in diplomacy is once a player has frustrated me/lied to me, I have a tendency to write them off and get very antagonistic with them. Those of you who've read more than one of my games know that antagonizing people is a real personal strong suit. So, team, can anyone convince me that Nicolae is worth talking to?

I need to whip something up for the Hippus, I'll see what I can do.

His...hands were tied? Sounds like an agreement with Kyan for something. And he gave us that T100 NAP very easily, too.

That's why we want to talk - because we can get stuff for free! All we have to do is ask, apparently.

[Man Behind the Mask]

Actually, I think I might need some help from the rest of the High Council for this. One of my flaws in diplomacy is once a player has frustrated me/lied to me, I have a tendency to write them off and get very antagonistic with them. Those of you who've read more than one of my games know that antagonizing people is a real personal strong suit. So, team, can anyone convince me that Nicolae is worth talking to?

Now we’ve suffered a setback, we certainly want to keep talking to Nicolae, because we’re in serious danger of being unprepared if he does have hostile intentions.

To avoid frustrations and looking emotional about stuff, it might be best to go with simple and factual. You should probably make this better, as I’ve never actually had to do diplo in any of these games - my intention is to give away as little as possible but look friendly by telling him stuff he already knows.

Hi Nicolae,

Thanks for responding so quickly this time. I know it’s tough when you’re in a few games at once.

We were pretty confident on the Balz army, but it’s been really difficult to find things to talk about so phrased it as a question. I think it’s telling that Kyan felt the need to “tie your hands”, especially right at the start of your relationship. Given his position in the game, I hope you got something in return rather than just letting him bully you.

On the C&D front, it looks like you recently got an Academy. Congratulations! We guessed it might be a sage from the dungeon or ruins near your territory.

The ogre looks like it’s made a direct beeline northwest from the Pyre, and I’m not aware of any other lairs directly in between our capitals. A few very unlucky rolls could cost us a lot, but hopefully we’re safe. It has a combat promotion, and we’ve seen no Clown units, so we can only assume that the Ogre took out whatever Kyan used to open the lair. As I said in my previous message, it’s a pretty low move by him that could easily have hit you rather than us.

We’re talking with the Hippus about their further scouting. We wouldn’t want you to miss out on RG’s fantastic roleplay diplo!

Regards,
Gaspar

Looking forward to that being torn to shreds by my more experienced team-mates. I'm especially unsure about the bit in red.

[Mardoc]

Maybe we should follow up on the idea of having him chop free our gold, too. That would be a significant boost - direct money, +1 happy, etc, and it wouldn't cost him much directly. Plus it would give us more warning on the timing of PZ enabled.

Edit: I agree we shouldn't directly reference bullying, since we did a bit of that ourselves. Maybe something along the lines of 'You gave Kyan an agreement to keep his info to yourself, and he repays you by exploring the Pyre? That could just as easily have gone south. Maybe you should consider being friends with someone who keeps his promises (me)'. Ok, that's a little blunt, but it could be worked with.