[SPOILER] Comrade Gaspar Arshavin of Russia

[Gaspar]

Is my thread boring?

On the bright side, I think I got like 95% of moves correct. The tactics of this game interest me a lot more than the chatter. 72 hours to play is going to kill me, when everyone wants to chat 200 times about nothing. We could have resolved in 24 and it wouldn't have changed anything. I'm just signing out of gchat most of the time because I can't take it. :P Anyway, here's a better gamestate map than Nakor's blobby nonsense:



Good news from this turn: Sweden is a guaranteed pickup in 02. Bad news, if I want to pressure Austria, I need help from Jowy. If Jowy were to agree to DMZ the Black Sea, I could capture Rumania with my fleet in the fall, and support myself into Galicia to threaten sciz's core in 1902. Unfortunately, I highly doubt Jowy can be trusted to do that. Still, I should get Galicia even without the support, as sciz pretty much has to use Army Vienna to contest TT in Trieste. Without digging into the minutiae, here's my suspicion for builds in 02:

England: 1 (norway)
France: 2 (Spain, Belgium)
Germany: 2 (Holland, Denmark)
Italy: 2 (Tunisia, Trieste)
Austria: 0 (gains serbia, loses Trieste)
Turkey: 2 (Bulgaria, Greece)
Me: 2 (Sweden, Rumania)

So pretty much holding serve for everyone but Austria and England-ish (logically, England has a tougher time getting 2 SCs in 1901 it seems than most.) 1902 shapes up to be the year of the stab in Eastern Europe, 4 powers sharing Austria and the Balkans isn't going to happen, so I'll at a minimum have to stab Germany or Turkey if I want to pick up SCs in 02. Obviously, Germany is the more obvious choice, but as he can't hope to hold Vienna long term anyway, he could be allowed it in the short term if there's something more appetizing on the horizon. Ultimately, I'd still most prefer to work with Jowy. Unfortunately, of Commodore, TT and Jowy, he's the one who's done least to earn my trust. I'll have more on how I expect this to play out later.

[Mardoc]

Is my thread boring?

On the contrary. It's just that you haven't left many safe topics to discuss - no confusion about tactics or legal moves, no irrelevant tangents, and I've got no idea what this Arshavin character is.

All that remains is direct discussion about who's allied with whom and their competence levels, likely moves for the future, etc, which is a spoiler minefield. I am, of course, rooting for you here, but that makes me more reluctant to speak up since it makes me even more paranoid about good-naturedly spoiling something. And then you go and do this:

On the bright side, I think I got like 95% of moves correct.

So there's not even 'that looks like it hurt, what are you going to do to recover' involved.

[Maniac Marshall]

I don't think your thread is boring either. In fact, you have one of the more informative threads, and I'd gladly comment on the things you've said except there is nothing I can say that's not a spoiler, or off limits for this game (discussion of various moves and their positives/negatives).

EDIT: I will say that I also find 72 hours to discuss things a bit long after the first move of the game. The whole negotiation online thing is a wholly different dynamic than I'm used to, and not sure that I will enjoy it. In live games, you generally have 10-15 minutes (15 is the official rule, 10 is sometimes used to speed the game up when you have a limited time block to play) between moves to talk to everyone and write orders. This makes it a lot more interesting, as you can't analyze every possible outcome on the board, and talk to everyone casually for as long as you like. Also, you get to see who's talking to who and for how long, then ask what the heck they were discussing for so long... And of course, you can't pick up tells, similar to online vs live poker...

It also means you can sometimes miss things, because you're under time pressure.

[Gaspar]

Thanks for the chatter guys, any sort of response makes you feel like you're not playing in a vacuum and motivates me to update. That said, I *do* have a game mechanics question. How does "cutting support" work? If this logical setup plays out in Austria:

TT: A Tyr S A Ven -> Tri
Sciz: A Vie -> Tri

Can Commodore cut TT's support by attacking Tyr which would force a bounce? I ask not because I think he's going to do that, but mostly because I like the idea of it still being on the table. Other than that, I don't see any actual way sciz can get help there - I assume A Mun can't support anyone into Trieste as they're not remotely bordered.

Additionally, I had a brief chat with sciz re: Galicia. He asked me not to go there and I evaded. Clearly, I have to go there, not least which because building an army in Warsaw in the winter seems a lot better positioned for future campaigns, and to do so, I need to vacate the province now.

[Maniac Marshall]

Thanks for the chatter guys, any sort of response makes you feel like you're not playing in a vacuum and motivates me to update.

As a veteran of the most unknown team in the infamous PB3 game, I know how you feel. Thank goodness for T-Hawk keeping me motivated in that game.

That said, I *do* have a game mechanics question. How does "cutting support" work? If this logical setup plays out in Austria:

TT: A Tyr S A Ven -> Tri
Sciz: A Vie -> Tri

Can Commodore cut TT's support by attacking Tyr which would force a bounce?

A: Yes. If he attacked from Tyr and supported from Ven however, the move would succeed (as would the German move) if Austria's Vie-Tri did not have an uncut support, as there is nothing that can cut the support of Ven S Tyr-Tri.

I ask not because I think he's going to do that, but mostly because I like the idea of it still being on the table. Other than that, I don't see any actual way sciz can get help there - I assume A Mun can't support anyone into Trieste as they're not remotely bordered.

This is a correct assumption.

[Mardoc]

Yeah - probably the most significant decision is which armies do the actual attacking and which do the supporting. The same goal and the same armies involved can lead to very different results just by correct choice of who attacks and who supports. If you use an army to support your attack, or to cut support of the defense. There get to be a lot of permutations here .

The overall rule is that any army attacked (by anything but the province being supported) cannot support something else. And a unit can only support a move that it could make (fleets can't support attacks into non-coastal provinces, armies can't support fleets at sea, you can't support an attack on a province you're not adjacent to, etc).

[Gaspar]

Worth mentioning that perhaps one gets what one wishes for. This turn I haven't been able to catch up with anyone save one chat each with sciz and Jowy. I'm a little worried Austria may go Rum instead of Gre and I'll be stuck with 1 center. Can I ask a general question to the crowd? In general, how disastrous is Turkey in the Black Sea for Russia?

[Maniac Marshall]

This is hard to give a general answer to, but I'll try anyhow.

It's quite problematic, but it's less disastrous IN GENERAL than Russia in the Black Sea is for Turkey. It depends on the kinds of and the overall balance of units in the area and if Russia can secure the line of Rum/Sev by having enough units to support that line. Keep in mind that in most games, Austrian units can often influence things as well, leaving you depending on the diplomatic situation.

Russia in the Black threatens 3 typically Turkish centers (counting Bul) directly, as well as a dreaded convoy to Armenia, which makes Turkey's life much harder.

[Gaspar]

So, while I didn't post predictions for Fall like I did for Spring, I have to say, I surely didn't predict the way it went out. TT is one lucky sumbitch, let me tell you. I'm sure everyone else has over-analyzed the situation already, so I won't focus too much on the past, but I sciz was pretty perfectly positioned to fight off the Italian invasion and still come away with 2 SCs under normal situation, and now he's pretty much dead. His only hope is to talk me into a big fat vassaly stab, and erm, you might remember me from such films as "Hi, I'm Russia, nothing to see here, just move along while I waltz out to 7 SCs quitely" and "Um, jesus, it looks like Russia has the whole board, let's dogpile" so he basically has to come to me with a deal starting with oral sex and ending with me getting everything outside his home SCs for me to do the stab that would arouse that much suspicion. Let's look at the board, with my suspected builds for everyone. I might have 1 or 2 of these wrong, but I don't think it will impact the situation all that much:



I'm less certain about TT and Bob's fleet builds. I think a smarter play for TT would be two fleets: F Ven and F Rom, but I doubt he can resist getting an army to the front sooner. I suppose Bob could build A Mar as well as the enforced A Par, but he obviously needs more ducks on the pond sooner. Jowy's build is pretty much enforced if he wants have any influence in the south, and for Commodore F Kie makes more sense that F Ber as it gives more options. He could build both, but I'd certainly take that personally, so since I think the big bear stab will wait til 03, I doubt it.

What will these builds result in for 02? I think we're looking at a pretty straightforward dismantling of Austria which is going to make things pretty ugly in 03. I'm going to get Bud, Commodore's going to get Vie(more on this in a minute), Jowy gets Ser, and TT gets Gre. Then that leaves huge conflict points later between Commodore and I (Vienna, Scandinavia), Jowy and TT (Greece, Serbia) and TT and Commodore (Trieste.) Right now, I think the Commodore/TT alliance is strongest, but that can't last unless Commodore can push TT against France. I'll talk more about this after the builds are announced.

What my question is re: builds is StP. Clearly, A War is a no brainer, and the biggest reason I went Gal, even more than a potential Bud capture next year, because Warsaw is where I want an army. Ideally, I can just hang onto Rum and Bud, and let the Balkans degenerate into the Balkans, if you know what I mean. Just as clearly, I want another fleet in the north, the question is whether I put that boat on the North or South coast. If I go SC, which is probably the expected play, I can support my Swedish move and defend St. Pete. If I go NC, I'm in play for Norway this year, and with another build there in 03, I could grab the strategically crucial North Sea, or possibly threaten the German coast. I'm inclined for the latter, but I do realize that Commodore could get crafty and push me in Sweden. I don't expect that to be the case, but its a definite possibility.

I might be a noob, but this game definitely shows me the strength of Russia. Basically, if everyone else is noobing it up (and we are) positioning and the initial extra SC make Russia a real threat just by playing the basics. This will probably only last me 2 more seasons, but I'll be sitting on a minimum of 7 SCs at the end of them, and all without a single real stab (I mini-stabbed sciz in Gal, but he'd have to be thick not to realize that I'd go there.)

[Maniac Marshall]

So far YOU haven't played like a noob. I think you've made the best possible moves so far, up to and including where you built the fleet. More I can not safely say.