[SPOILERS] Diplo2 Lurker Thread - players KEEP OUT

[Lewwyn]

Additionally, by simply allowing Austria to be taken out so easily Germany is allowing the West countries to focus elsewhere. Even if all he does is warn Austria he gives himself more time to prepare. If he wants he can send an army to "help" Austria and stab him then if its already too late. But here he's already lied to Austria and stabbed before he can get into a good position to use the stab.

[Amelia]

In most games, treat Austria and Germany as one. They frankly, need each other to survive (or at least, not attack each other). With one front protected, it becomes much more manageable (for Germany, but Austria still has that Italian threat...)

[Maniac Marshall]

In most games, treat Austria and Germany as one. They frankly, need each other to survive (or at least, not attack each other). With one front protected, it becomes much more manageable (for Germany, but Austria still has that Italian threat...)

Well, that's a bit strong, but near the mark I'd say. It's probably logistically easiest for both to at least NAP, but Austria can also do fairly well with Russia or Turkey as friend, though that ones usually a 2 fronter and harder to manage, it's doable. The real problem for Austra especially, but Germany and Russia to a lesser extent, is that with 4 neighbors, it needs a good friend AND at least one of its other 3 neighbors to be and stay neutral, such as we've seen in the "how to play the central powers" demo game in the other thread. Most of the time, other countries usually only need one neighbor "on their side"

In this game, my take is that if F/G is really going on, G SHOULD be trying to make it F/G/A. Get F and A to carve up I, while F also helps you in the north V E. With F distracted by 2 fronts, but still of some value to you, you're likely to do well cleaning up in Scandinavia and the Low Countries. You can make the point to F that he's getting centers elsewhere, and you really need the ones between you.

[Cyneheard]

Well, Austria's in trouble. He can't trust Germany to help, where Mun-Tyr would be really helpful. War S Ukr-Gal will succeed (and Rus gets Sweden, too), and if Russia and Turkey can manage to not go into the Black Sea, then Sev-Rum nets Russia TWO builds (and with 2 fleets available, in Rum and Sev, losing the Black Sea isn't a bad thing), while Turkey has options: I'd say Bul-Gre and Con-Bul, especially if he can get Italy's support. But I suspect that Ion-Tus is in the cards.

[Maniac Marshall]

My initial, hopefully not too flawed, analysis of Spring 1901

ENGLAND (Jkaen)
A(Lpl) - Yor; F(Edi) - NTH; F(Lon) - ENG (FAILED)

Fairly standard set of moves. England will get Norway in the Fall, logically by convoy, but nothing else. He can not be terribly pleased by where that French army moved, but perhaps he hopes they will bounce in Belgium...

FRANCE (Bob)
A(Mar) - Spa; A(Par) - Pic; F(Bre) - ENG (FAILED)

Paris to Picardy is an odd move, and should be setting off panic in England right about now. Not moving that army to Burgundy all but informs England that Germany and France are working together. I assume the point of this was to make sure either France or Germany get Belgium next turn, but, really, the same thing could have been easily accomplished by just going to Burgundy, which is a fairly standard defensive maneuver, and it still boarders Belgium.

ITALY (TT)
A(Rom) - Ven; A(Ven) - Tyr; F(Nap) - ION

Makes pretty clear Italy's early game intentions, however, how much Italy stands to gain is questionable. Italy's only guaranteed build is still to move the fleet to Tunis, since Austria can move Alb-Tri with 2 supports and guarantee at worst a bounce (if Turkey cuts support, but they'll probably take Greece.), and more likely the move will succeed. This is why "Kill Austria" usually doesn't work as well for Italy as it does for the two eastern powers, especially on turn 1.

Also, if you're absolutely committed to this, and you trust your eastern "friends" then be brave. Why not move Ven-Tri on turn 1? That gives Austria a lot more trouble if it succeeds. In fact, if all else were equal, if the Army in Tyr were in Tri it would guarantee Austria the loss of a home center this year Via Tri Holds, Ven S Tri, and Ion-Alb. The only way they kick you out in this event is Abl-Tri with two supports, and you simply retreat to Bud then, and Take Tri in 1902.

AUSTRIA-HUNGARY (Sciz)
A(Vie) - Gal (FAILED); A(Bud) - Ser; F(Tri) - Alb

Well, he's screwed, through no fault of his own, and he surely knows it. His only hope now is to convince someone to flip to his side, and it's now not in anyone's interest to. except possibly Germany (well, maybe Italy actually), and that's probably too late now. Alb-Tri with double support seems his best hope short term. It does actually get him a build, but he's doomed soon unless he can convince someone to flip. Oddly, working on Italy might be his best chance. Offer to support him into Greece. Offer to eventually help him take Munich... That's a bit weak, but what else does he have?

TURKEY (Jowy)
A(Con) - Bul; A(Smy) - Con; F(Ank) - BLA (FAILED)

Jowy's gotta be loving this. He stands a reasonable chance of actually taking Greece this turn, since, realistically, Austria needs at least one of the units in Alb and Ser to help maintain control of Tri, so Greece may be his depending on what Austria does. Even if that doesn't happen, he's no worse off than a typical Turkey, and has long term prospects for Serbia and Greece.

RUSSIA (Gaspar)
A(Mos) - Ukr; A(War) - Gal (FAILED); F(Sev) - BLA (FAILED); F(StP) sc - GoB

Standard Russian opening. He's probably somewhat telegraphed his intentions vs Austria, but so what? He's guaranteed Rumania and Sweeden this turn, and is likely to get an Austrian Center next turn. If he takes Rum with the fleet, he can build a fleet in Sev next turn, and unless Jowy is both able to take the Black this turn AND build a Fleet in Con (by taking Greece), the Black Sea shouldn't be Turkish controlled (Turkey in the Black See is less of a problem than Russia... still a problem though). He's mostly sitting pretty. He's also in a position to talk to Germany about Norway. A F StP (NC) (or even an Army) build there at the end of the year would be really bad news for England.

GERMANY (Commodore)
F(Kie) - Hol; A(Ber) - Kie; A(Mun) Stands

Pretty weak actually. Others have already discussed why Mun-Tyr to slow down the tripple coalition vs Austria (which he knew about) was a good idea at length, so I won't revisit. Amelia pointed out why Kei-Den is a pretty standard opener just upthread too (slows down Russia), so I won't revisit that. Ber-Kei does make perfect sense.

So, why move to Holland? As I said under France, I suppose it's so one of them can support the other into Belgium... but this is absolutely not needed. France and England had arranced a bounce in the English Channel, so England could not have arranged a supported move to Belgium... nor anywhere else either, at which point, England has exactly ONE guaranteed build, which is Norway. If you're England, are you going to CHANCE a build, or take a sure one?

EDIT: Having read France's latest update, it pretty much confirms why Germany and France made the moves they did. It's too bad for their sake they wasted a lot of energy on things they didn't need to do.

[uberfish]

With both England and Germany focused away from Scandinavia, and Italy attacking Austria, Russia is likely to take the early lead in this game.

England's opening is defensive, moving to Wales would indicate that he expected to get into the channel and try to convoy into France. The moves played indicate that he doesn't trust France.

Similarly France's move to Pic is designed to express non-aggression towards Germany and threaten a convoy to London or Wales if he gets into the Channel.

Germany's fleet move to Holland gives up the better position in Denmark to put more influence on Belgium, but when not combined with a move to Ruhr or Burgundy there really isn't much point.

[Maniac Marshall]

With both England and Germany focused away from Scandinavia, and Italy attacking Austria, Russia is likely to take the early lead in this game.

Agreed.

England's opening is defensive, moving to Wales would indicate that he expected to get into the channel and try to convoy into France. The moves played indicate that he doesn't trust France.

It's really a fairly standard opening by England. A move to Wales is highly aggressive and not done often unless you're 100% banking on Germany being your ally. I believe the bounce in the Channel was prearranged, but I'm not totally sure.

Similarly France's move to Pic is designed to express non-aggression towards Germany and threaten a convoy to London or Wales if he gets into the Channel.

France definitely knew England was moving to the Chanel, and knew there would be a bounce. While what you're saying makes sense in isolation, Germany is supposedly offering to (unnecessarily) support France into Belgium next turn, and also told France he was keeping his army in Munich...

When offered a free supply center in Belgium, is France really going to pass on it and move to Rhur? Seems illogical. He won't be able to hold it long term. Simply explain to Germany it's to keep up the ruse with England as long as possible, and that you're moving to Belgium with his support next turn like planned. I SUPPOSE if Germany was unhappy with that explanation, or he wanted to move Munich in the fall, then fine...

Actually, maybe THAT's why. Perhaps he intends Mun - Boh, or is worried about a Franco-Italian stab of Munich, though the latter could have been solved with Mun - Tyr. If either of those are true, then I'll buy that as an explanation.

Germany's fleet move to Holland gives up the better position in Denmark to put more influence on Belgium, but when not combined with a move to Ruhr or Burgundy there really isn't much point.

Yeah. It's fine if YOU are taking Belgium with Rhur support, or supporting an English Convoy, but illogical when giving it to France.

[T-hawk]

Now that England has the North Sea, he could guarantee the English Channel by having Nth support his other fleet to Eng. Is that any kind of common play, or is taking Norway with the Nth fleet more important?

[Nakor]

Taking norway gives another fleet or army next turn, while taking Eng does not. Getting more SC has priority in1901, I think.

[uberfish]

Now that England has the North Sea, he could guarantee the English Channel by having Nth support his other fleet to Eng. Is that any kind of common play, or is taking Norway with the Nth fleet more important?

Getting a build in the first year is too important, he'd be extremely vulnerable next year with only 2 fleets even if he pushed to the channel. Best to just take Norway and try to patch things up with France and Germany.