[SPOILERS] Diplo2 Lurker Thread - players KEEP OUT

[Lewwyn]

I wanna hear more about how "Sciz has stopped thinking rationally." from Jowy. I wonder what Sciz to make him say that.

[uberfish]

France should have let England into the Channel so he could build a fleet in Brest really. Since now he has to build a fleet in Marseilles that will take two turns just to get anywhere useful, FG won't even be able to attack any English cities in 1902, so the main beneficiary is Russia who can take Norway by force... and unless Italy and Turkey decide to ally against Russia, there's nothing really stopping Russia from invading Germany in 1903.

[Maniac Marshall]

FRANCE (Bob)
A(Pic) - Bel; A(Spa) - Por; F(Bre) - ENG (FAILED)

The army moves make perfect sense, and the fleet move is passable... barely.

Depending on how much he trusts Germany, though, I think F Bre - MAO was better. Yes, it allows England the Channel, but if France and Germany are allied, England can't hold it, and it also allows France to build F Brest instead of F Mar, which gains a couple of tempos, and even more if he doesn't realize he can go Spain (SC), then MAO, which has the drawback of delaying the return of the army from Portugal... Which means it could run afoul of Italy building Venice and moving to Piedmont, forcing the fleet to return...

I don't think France can complain too much about it's situation at the moment however.

He has to build A Paris, and something in Marseilles, I'd assume a Fleet.

ITALY (TT)
F(ION) - Tun; A(Tyr) s A(Ven) - Tri; A(Ven) - Tri

Hopefully this move demonstrates TT having a lot of trust in Germany, because otherwise, he attacked/supported backwards, as Germany could have (and arguably SHOULD have) cut the support.

TT can't complain about anything really. He's made "less than optimal" moves, and they've worked flawlessly. Germany not only allowed him to take Tri in year 1, but I'll assume he's going to get Vienna in the spring with Russian support in return for Russia getting Budapest. (Maybe I shouldn't assume that...) That's the logical agreement, but a lot of illogical things are going on in this game

EDIT: Germany seems to be expecting Italy to let him have Vie as a return favor for getting him into Tri last turn. Wonder how Russia will feel about that...

BTW: At one point in time, Italy was considering A Tyr - Vie and A Ven - Tri, and Turkey was going to move to Greece, not Ser to cut support. If that had happened, Austria's move to Tri would have succeeded, but Italy would have moved into Vienna, which had just been vacated. This would have been somewhat funny. (Well, not for Sciz)

He has 2 builds. Not sure what he's going to build where, but I will assume at least one will be a fleet. He really could build any number of ways depending on what he's trying to accomplish next year.

AUSTRIA-HUNGARY (Sciz)
A(Ser) s A(Vie) - Tri (CUT); A(Vie) - Tri (FAILED); F(Alb) - Gre

Well this worked. Kinda... Let's be perfectly honest, under full dog-pile, there's NOTHING he can do about survival in the long run unless he can convince someone to switch sides BUT...

I thought F Alb - Tri, A Ser-Gre, and A Vie S F Alb - Tri was his best chance.

It stood no chance of losing Vie to Italy moving Tyr - Vie.

It stood no chance of losing Tri this turn. Worst case (and most likely) scenario is a bounce in Tri, and if Italy moved as he did and Germany cut the support like he was hoping for, he'd have actually taken Tri.

Most importantly, it forcibly denied Italy a build this turn.

It also stood no chance of Turkey taking two supply centers. If he moves to Gre, he takes it, but bounces the following unit moving to Bul, leaving it open. If he moves to Ser, like he actually did, then it leaves Greece open.

End result of these moves would have been better, and he would have 100% avoided any worse case scenarios, and he'd have kept a home SC.

At this point, he really has no hope, but I think his only chance is to convince Russia to work with him and Stab Turkey. It honestly not does not appear to be in Russia's best interest to go along with this unless he can also convince France to come hard after Italy right away (don't see that happening), so it shouldn't work.

It's a lot more difficult situation than it would have been had Austria kept Tri and denied Italy an extra build, and probably impossible to pull off. There are enough Russian units in the area to secure the Austrian line and crunch Bulgaria, but they shouldn't be able to hold Greece. Russia should pass, but he might as well try to convince him. That's about all he's got at the moment.

He has one build, which is A Bud per force.

TURKEY (Jowy)
A(Bul) - Ser (FAILED); A(Con) - Bul (FAILED); F(Ank) - BLA (FAILED)

The Bul - Ser move was a real surprise. I assumed he'd just bluff that. My first reaction was "WTF why give Italy an extra build when you stand to gain nothing?" Usually, you want people to die slower till you're poised to get a piece of them, especially if you don't have a high trust level with them but...

Analyzing the situation, this was a good thing, especially if he thinks he can count on Italy to support him in taking Greece. Without going into too much detail, with Austria a bit more viable, and Italy a bit weaker, there would have been an opportunity for a Russian/Austrian stab mentioned earlier, and it might have been doable.

There would not have been a realistic chance of getting more than Greece without a lot of deal making either way as far as I can see. I expect Turkey to get Greece soon unless Russia can convince Italy not to let that happen.

I expect he'll build F Smyrna

RUSSIA (Gaspar)
A(Ukr) - Rum; A(War) - Gal; F(GoB) - Swe; F(Sev) - BLA (FAILED)

My first thought was he should have taken Rum with the Fleet, letting Jowy gain the Black Sea, but then built a Fleet in Sev to take it over next turn. Of course, the downside of this is that it might be taken as a virtual DOW by Turkey (who he keeps saying is his preferred working partner). The downside to doing it the way he did is that he could conceivably be stuck with a single fleet in the south, at least for a while, meaning Jowy should eventually be able to force his way into the Black Sea, as he can always build fleets (as long as he has an open home SC of course).

Other than that concern, though, he's in really good shape. He should get Norway next turn, assuming he builds StP (NC) (Or an army), and I don't know why he wouldn't do that. I suppose it's possible for Germany to keep him out if England convoys to Nwy, and Germany cuts Russia's support, but I doubt that happens. I don't think Germany is really scared of Russia... yet.

It also seems very plausible for him to wind up with Budapest. Assuming he doesn't get resistance from an Austria/Turkey stab in 02 (doubtful) or a Turkey/Italy stab, Germany is in a whole lot of trouble. He should be in reasonable shape to invade Germany in 03...

His biggest trouble might be Italy/Turkey/Germany combining to stop him from running away if they decide he's getting too far ahead.

I assume he builds A Warsaw and F StP (NC), but we'll see.

GERMANY (Commodore)
A(Kie) - Den; A(Mun) - Boh; F(Hol) s FRENCH A(Pic) - Bel

Judging by the chat TT posted in his thread, Germany seems to think he has a working arrangement with Italy... well, he better HOPE he does, otherwise he's in a lot of trouble, because while he's busy invading England, the Russian troops will need somewhere else to invade shortly, and Germany looks like the next logical target.

He seems to be playing everyone off against one another, but he's going to need help soon. Someone is going to have to slow Russia down. If Italy sides with Russia, then it's goodnight for Germany. We should get an idea who his real friends are real soon. It we see a G/I/T faction emerge, he might be ok. He's either done a masterful job of pulling puppet strings on everyone, or it's going to come down like a house of cards.

I'm guessing A Munich and F Kiel.

ENGLAND (Jkaen)
A(Yor) - Bel (FAILED); F(Lon) - ENG (FAILED); F(NTH) c A(Yor) - Bel



Not taking Norway when it's a guaranteed build, but instead taking a chance on one when someone might be lying to you... I mean, really, not a good idea. Fortunately for him, France won't be able to bring two fleets to bear on him for a whole nother year. Maybe longer if Italy interferes with France. Unfortunately, he really has NO hope for a build unless something really bizarre happens. Germany should be able to force his way into the North sea by the end of 02, and that should be doom for England. England's best hope now might be a Russian invasion of Germany, combined with an Italian invasion of France... but, even so, where does he get any SC's out of it?



This next year should be rather interesting to see who sides with who. There's a lot of possibilities for what could happen post Operation Austrian Crush.

[Lewwyn]

Austrian Crush should have failed. If Sciz was smart he would have gone:

(F)Alb-Gre
(A)Vie S (A)Ser - Tri

This was what I would have done in his situation. Given Italy's aggression this guarantee's a bounce. Why? If Italy attacks Vie and cuts support he has no support in Tri this he still bounces. If he supports into Tri an attack from Turkey cannot cut the support and he bounces again. The only way this doesn't get a bounce is if Italy decided not to attack, at which point he would have moved from Ser to Tri and lost Ser. But again given the intent of Italy this was the best play.

So not the best play by Sciz here. I'm saddened. He should have gotten two builds from the poor play off both Italy and Turkey. Turkey should have attacked Greece and Italy should have taken Tri in the Spring. If he had gone with the above moves he would have gotten 2 builds in Tri and Bud. Been at 5 armies and in perfect shape to scare one of his opponents into helping him attack another one. There's a lot of moves I disagree with all over the board.

I think France is getting by, England is screwing up, Germany is being foolish, Turkey should have gone for Greece, Italy is getting lucky.

Russia is the only one I think has made the best moves so far and is actually not making tactical errors. His moves to Swe, Gal, Rum and Bla were all teh correct choices. Even if he were to be bounced in Rum I think it was worth not giving up the Bla, but he wasn't bounced in Rum so playing it safe paid off. The move to Gal is great for protection everywhere. I think his next builds should be a fleet in Stp and an army in War. I think Gaspar is the player to beat. I'm not sure anyone will be stabbing him too based on his personality and diplo skills. I also think if anyone goes in for the stab he'll probably see it coming. The good thing for him is he's not on anyone's radar. Germany has foolishly let him have a free pass in the north, he's going to get a piece of Austria, he did not allow Turkey into the Bla. (Even if its not as bad it still puts him in a position to get stabbed, the best way to not be a target is to not be in a position to get targeted. The decision to bounce Bla instead of support was the best one he's made so far IMO.) Things are looking up for Russia. He could possibly go on across the north and pick up some more Scandinavian countries possibly even make it all the way west to get a piece of England. Looking forward to seeing if he can balance expansion with safety and not appearing too dangerous.

[Maniac Marshall]

Austrian Crush should have failed. If Sciz was smart he would have gone:

(F)Alb-Gre
(A)Vie S (A)Ser - Tri

This was what I would have done in his situation. Given Italy's aggression this guarantee's a bounce. Why? If Italy attacks Vie and cuts support he has no support in Tri this he still bounces. If he supports into Tri an attack from Turkey cannot cut the support and he bounces again. The only way this doesn't get a bounce is if Italy decided not to attack, at which point he would have moved from Ser to Tri and lost Ser. But again given the intent of Italy this was the best play.

That's actually even better than what I suggested assuming:

a) The move to Tri doesn't succeed for some strange reason, allowing Jowy to take both Bul and Ser and
b) Jowy attacks Serbia, not Greece.

I gotta admit, when I analyzed the situation there two days ago, I apparently failed to analyze that because I never thought Jowy'd actually attack Serbia. Then again, I also never thought Italy wasn't going to attack, and it turns out he WASN'T till Germany talked him into it as he was about to send in his orders....

So not the best play by Sciz here. I'm saddened. He should have gotten two builds from the poor play off both Italy and Turkey. Turkey should have attacked Greece and Italy should have taken Tri in the Spring. If he had gone with the above moves he would have gotten 2 builds in Tri and Bud. Been at 5 armies and in perfect shape to scare one of his opponents into helping him attack another one.

Yeah, in those cases he does get 5 supply centers because he keeps Serbia and Trieste because of the bounce, and gets Greece too. Nice analysis.

Now, if Jowy doesn't do that odd move, the end results of our ideas are exactly the same. Absolutely correct that Italy should have taken Tri in the spring, as I noted after the spring moves. Italy HAS been really lucky. You don't do a half assed tippy-toed first turn stab, then vacillate about continuing to stab on the next turn because you don't want to make your intentions clear (what?), only to be talked into going through with it by someone who should debatably not want it to succeed, and get away with it, and yet, somehow, he has.

I think France is getting by, England is screwing up, Germany is being foolish, Turkey should have gone for Greece, Italy is getting lucky.

That's pretty much the case. Germany might be managing to get France and Italy to dance a dance (not really sure), and he snookered England, but I don't think he sees the Russian storm thats coming. That's liable to be fatal.

Russia is the only one I think has made the best moves so far and is actually not making tactical errors. His moves to Swe, Gal, Rum and Bla were all teh correct choices. Even if he were to be bounced in Rum I think it was worth not giving up the Bla, but he wasn't bounced in Rum so playing it safe paid off. The move to Gal is great for protection everywhere. I think his next builds should be a fleet in Stp and an army in War. I think Gaspar is the player to beat. I'm not sure anyone will be stabbing him too based on his personality and diplo skills. I also think if anyone goes in for the stab he'll probably see it coming. The good thing for him is he's not on anyone's radar. Germany has foolishly let him have a free pass in the north, he's going to get a piece of Austria, he did not allow Turkey into the Bla. (Even if its not as bad it still puts him in a position to get stabbed, the best way to not be a target is to not be in a position to get targeted. The decision to bounce Bla instead of support was the best one he's made so far IMO.)

Certainly he should not have supported the army in with the fleet, as he was originally thinking. If he was going to do it, it had to be the other way round so he could build a second fleet in the south to evict Jowy from the Black next turn, but the Jowy builds his fleet in Ankara so he can support the Black sea... and, yeah, that's not the best idea either. He can hold, but it's tying down too many units best used elsewhere, doing things like looking for schnitzel or surveying fjords.

Things are looking up for Russia. He could possibly go on across the north and pick up some more Scandinavian countries possibly even make it all the way west to get a piece of England. Looking forward to seeing if he can balance expansion with safety and not appearing too dangerous.

Yeah, I don't think anyone in this game is familiar with how ugly it can get when Russia gets 3-4 fleets running loose in the north. They are about to get a rude awakening. His biggest problem now it a full scale stop the leader action.

[T-hawk]

So not the best play by Sciz here. I'm saddened. ... I think France is getting by, England is screwing up, Germany is being foolish, Turkey should have gone for Greece, Italy is getting lucky.

This IS the new players' game, ya know. :neenernee

[Maniac Marshall]

You know what, though. I'm going to defend that move by Jowy to Serbia in one way. Nothing you do in this game is all about you. It's all about figuring out what the other guy is going to do, and making the move that best counters it.

Reading back on things, if Jowy is absolutely convinced that Austria is going to make exactly the move that he made, and that Italy will attack with uncut support, then the move he made IS actually the best move. But he better be right. There is always the danger of being wrong, and if your argument is that the reward was not worth the risk in this situation... I can buy that line of reasoning entirely.

[Piet]

Germanys stab against Austria is really the worst move this turn in my opinion - giving up his only sure ally gaining a second front much earlier than expected. And even if he gets Vienna, his diplo has to be excellent to hold it longer than a few turns.

My last dippy games were played long ago, but I remember well that Germany did not help Austria in any of them (inexperienced players - allright, just like in this game ;-)) and they both had a lot of troubles in each game I played. And this was even without Germany actively attacking.

At least his west front seems to be save, but with russia probably getting a firm hold in Skandinavia, and France in good shape, it is doubtable he will make much progress there.

[Lewwyn]

You know what, though. I'm going to defend that move by Jowy to Serbia in one way. Nothing you do in this game is all about you. It's all about figuring out what the other guy is going to do, and making the move that best counters it.

Reading back on things, if Jowy is absolutely convinced that Austria is going to make exactly the move that he made, and that Italy will attack with uncut support, then the move he made IS actually the best move. But he better be right. There is always the danger of being wrong, and if your argument is that the reward was not worth the risk in this situation... I can buy that line of reasoning entirely.

Okay I can see where you are coming from. Maybe having Austria die quicker will be better for Turkey, but thats at the cost of a strengthened Italy. Yes maybe not everything is directly effecting you, but indirect affects such as the power of your allies is important too. Italy doesn't need two builds to help crush Austria, so if Italy is stalled an extra turn in the north I think its too Turkey's benfit.

Say Turkey went Gre instead. Austria still gets 4 builds, but Italy gets one less. Austria builds in Tri to fight Italy. In this scenario, Turkey has a better chance to accumulate Balkan SCs because Austria doesn't build in Bud and has to continue support against Italy. In this case Italy has less fleets and is less powerful in the fututre less likely to be a threat to Turkey.

See Austria is going to fall all the same but instead of falling in the north first its more likely to be snapped up from the south first. Thus Turkey grows stronger faster than Italy, and actually has the chance to get positioned to take Italy out quicker. He can start moving fleets into Aeg and Ion infrige on Italy and basically accumulate more power.

And T-Hawk, yeah I know its the new players game. It's a lot of fun to watch. Just because I see some things as mistakes doesn't mean I'm not enjoying or realize they could still win. Also remember the other game is my first game too. :neenernee I'm saddened by Austria's death mostly because I'm austria in the other game.

[Maniac Marshall]

Whether or not Italy getting one extra unit a year earlier is good or bad for him is debatable. Depends on what he thinks Italy intends to do with that unit, if he can parlay his help into a return favor from Italy (which he's not done. Nice how Germany has though...), and if Italy and Turkey are fixing to go after Russia next. Lastly, this does effectively make Austria dead, whereas Austria holding Trieste held out prospects for an Austria/Russia stab (no, I don't think that was ever considered).

However, after review, I'm going to basically concede the point, because I've seen no proof yet that Jowy made the move to Serbia with any of these in mind.