[SPOILER] Comrade Gaspar Arshavin of Russia

[Mardoc]

You seem to have predicted the Winter builds perfectly. It actually took me a moment to remember that map of yours was posted pre-build instead of post.

So...what exactly are you planning with these builds of yours? It looks like 1902 will be the year of...Norway and Budapest? Only that would require a mere 4 (3 if you're lucky or good) units for 1 season, leaving me wondering about the other 8-9 orders you'll have available in 1902.

And also, are you thinking about your plans beyond that yet? At least in general terms, like who you're taking on after Austria exits?

[Gaspar]

You seem to have predicted the Winter builds perfectly. It actually took me a moment to remember that map of yours was posted pre-build instead of post.

So...what exactly are you planning with these builds of yours? It looks like 1902 will be the year of...Norway and Budapest? Only that would require a mere 4 (3 if you're lucky or good) units for 1 season, leaving me wondering about the other 8-9 orders you'll have available in 1902.

And also, are you thinking about your plans beyond that yet? At least in general terms, like who you're taking on after Austria exits?

Funny you say that. Let's take a look at a batch diplo email TT sent out to the 4 "Eastern" powers (don't really think Germany fits in this sandbox, but bear with me.)

Hey Guys,

As you are all involved in this, I thought i'd include you all in 1 email as I have drawn up a plan which should guarantee the capture of Vienna, Budapest and possibly Serbia by the end of Spring.

German army in Bohemia supported by Italian army in Tyrolia attacks Vienna & destroys unit.

Russian armies in Rumania & Galicia attack Budapest & destroys unit. Also cuts any support to Vienna.

Turkish army in Bulgaria supported by Italian army in Trieste attacks Serbia and either takes it or is bounced if Austrian Army in Serbia is supported by Army in Greece. If it is a bounce, it still guarantees that it cuts support to Budapest.

I believe this will work and is our best option of destroying Austria. It will then be a simple mop up job from then.

Good job to all concerned so far with the success we have managed to achieve!

TT

After that he hit me up and started planning a German stab in Austria. Now that's perfect for me, I can take Norway without difficulty and basically use Italy as my long-ish term ally on the continent while I play T & A off each other as I slowly dismantle Germany, which, with 3 fleets in the North and a compliant English corpse I can do easily. However, yet again TT gets other ideas and involves Germany too much... and now Commodore is offering to let TT have Austria, for what you might ask? Well, I'll tell you the only thing I think Commodore would take - assistance against Russia in the following years.

Commodore has also asked me to let him have Sweden in exchange for Norway. Clearly, he can't stop me from taking both, but I'd like a stab to have a little more vengeance than 1 scandinavian SC. I need a minute to think on this because I didn't think there was any chance that Germany would pass on Vienna, which was his entire objective in moving east, or so I thought. TT is also considering a very early stab of Turkey, so I'm going to need to see if its worth it to get Turkey onside rather than Italy. A shame if it doesn't work out, Italy as a more convenient ally.

Also, he seemed real keen on getting me to say I don't object to him screwing Jowy, as though he planned on C+P'ing it into a conversation with Jowy later on. I don't care about that, everyone knows all that chatter must occur, I'm sure it won't stop me from working with Turkey if necessary.

Let's just say Fall 02 is going to be interesting one way or another. And as far as my other units, Mardoc, its really just a matter of moving them to the front. I'll try and grab another prediction map and get it up soonish. But my turn this year is not nearly so simple as my turn last year.

[Gaspar]

Well, I really haven't had time to chat much with anyone, in fact I've not talked to Jowy at all this turn. The fall turn is going to be the interesting one this time around, even if I get stabbed all over the place there's only so much anyone can do. I think sciz just packed it in rather than attempted to organize a diplomatic defense, and I think I can't blame him. I still rather think I'm the next target of a perhaps I/G/T alliance. If I am, well, I'll give them hell, but there's not a lot I can do at this point. There's really no reason for Italy to be against me right now, but if you're not paranoid, you're probably not playing the game right. I have zero doubt Germany is plotting my demise, however. Anyway, here's my Spring 1902 Guess board...



First off, really no clue what France is up to, so those orders are really just pure conjecture. England has told me he's after Norway. Whether I let him keep that in the fall is entirely up to how much I think he can help me long term and if I've been stabbed or not. If he's after Norway, that's a pretty logical moveset. I think Bob and Jkaen need to stop dry humping in the channel - while the channels important (for England especially) unlike the Black Sea, there's other moves for them to try. And unlike me, who can afford to waste a build center in Sevastapol because I have 3 others, not being able to build in London, and Bob in particular not being able to build in Brest are hampering their longer term prospects. Nonetheless, I expect them to continue doing so.

In the east, sciz's moves are a total guess. To me, he feels most upset with TT. So if the cards fall right, he could maybe possibly deny him Trieste this year. Unlikely, but that's what I think he'll do. TT is a bit of a cipher, I know the Tyr -> Vie move is happening, what he does with his armies behind that leaves some mystery. He's alluded that he might not support Jowy into Serbia, but it doesn't matter unless a more elaborate plot is in play. Regardless, I put him down for the support because I don't see an alternate move, other than perhaps supporting sciz's A Bud to hold if Operation: Screw Russia starts this turn. I don't think that's going to happen, however, as its a little early for them to alert me. Turkey's moves are pretty well enforced as well, with luck he gets Ser and Gre this year, but he'll definitely get Greece unless TT stabs. That fleet being stuck in Ankara really hurts his options, he'd have been better off if he could have got it into the Med last year.

Germany is obviously the big question mark - I really don't know what he's after. He got his 2 builds last year while not really accomplishing anything, but where are his builds coming from this year? The smart play is to put F Kie into Hel this turn, so he can gain control over the crucial North Sea in the Fall, however he indicated to me a desire to trade Sweden and Norway, which makes no sense as part of anything other than a stab, since Jkaen is going to get Norway first unless someone can dislodge him from Nth this year. Regardless, I expect him to move to the Baltic. He'll probably hold Den rather than move it, but moving it south lets him convoy Kie -> Swe in the fall, so again, I'm including it. Obviously TT's his best friend, so he's going to support A Tyr -> Vie. The move Hol -> Nth makes sense as well to um... accomplish nothing, but its what I expect him to do. A Mun might hold, or it might move to Silesia if he decides he wants to drop all pretense of friendship and make a move on Warsaw. I suspect the former but won't be surprised by the latter.

So what are my moves? They're all pretty obvious as well. The only 2 "in question moves are F Swe -> Ska and A War -> Gal. If I suspect a TT-Commodore alliance, there's something to be said for keeping an army in Warsaw rather than moving to Galicia. My hope is that by moving Ska with the Fleet, in addition to the northern fleet in the Barents Sea, there's enough pressure around there to dissuade Commodore from attacking Warsaw. But bottom line, if he moves A Mun -> Sil, and then attacks Warsaw, he can't get at it this year if I move back, and then assuming I keep at least one build, I'll want to build my army in Warsaw to fend off the German assault.

Of course, if the Axis stays onside, then all of this is moot and I'm in fine position to go on the offense.

I'd love to hear from someone if I'm missing any obvious possible moves here. I probably won't post one of these for Fall, by the by, in case someones feeling frisky, but the moves here are all stupidly obvious for me, so I'm not concerned if someone reads my thread.

[Gaspar]

I hate waiting.

[Gaspar]

And... cue

As best I can tell, we're looking at Germany screwing up Italy on accident, Italy screwing Turkey on purpose, France mildly threatening Germany and um... a whole lot of on the board.

Let's take a look at the board, where Austria should be dead but is still somewhat alive thanks to some foolishness:

First what happened:



Austria focused on Trieste, as I expected. If Germany had written the proper support order, then Italy gets Vienna. As it stands, Austria still has the opportunity to impact proceedings. I doubt it will, but it could.

Now, Germany could have mini-stabbed Italy here and play it off as oh, I made a mistake, but I doubt that. I think it was an honest mistake, and I think Germany really did sell Vienna to get help against me from Italy. More on this in a minute.

Italy on the other hand, basically betrayed his anti-Turkey stance here. Since he failed to support Jowy into Serbia. This was a terrible move, because the support would have been cut anyway, all it does is show Jowy his hand. I also think he'd have been better served moving F Tun -> Wes and F Nap -> Ion, so he had some leverage in negotiations with France. In this setup, Bob gets the Spain build uncontested, and can move F Lyo to either Tys to threaten TT or Wes en route north. Just a bad turn all around for TT.

France is in good position. It took Bur, which one would assume Germany had asked him to demilitarize, and can now threaten German compliance is several positions.

Germany elsewhere made the "bad" move for me this turn, taking Sweden. Why did I move my fleet out? Its too early, and Germany wanted Sweden in exchange for Norway. Now, I could have just moved F Swe -> Nor and bounced there but it makes me look less strong prior to the fall turn, so buys me extra time before I start looking like a good stab target.

Turkey on the other hand has the Turkish problem of struggling to get its units out, because it doesn't have enough outlets to the continent because it has to keep its fleet in Ank. If he trusted me and had gotten that Fleet in the Aegean last fall, he'd be golden right now. Instead he needs help to pick up even one SC this year.

England has to work with me or Commodore if he wants to keep Norway. I really haven't made up my mind, everything to me is about options.



I'll spend some time looking at the board and figure out where to go from here. But I suspect I'll get a lot more emails this year than last.

[Gaspar]

I suppose I owe an update. This is not that post, however. Mostly I'm disgusted with myself, I think I played a horrible 1902. Basically I straddled the fence everywhere and cost myself a build and lost my best chance to own the northern seas. With Austria gone, clearly IGRT will crumble now, and its really up to me if it ends up being IGF v ERT or IGR v ET. The latter is obviously easier, but its also quite rife with stabbing opportunities, especially since E and T can't really do anything to help one another. I'm also not at all sure where France falls in the situation, mostly because Bob is a bit of a cipher.

I'll try and put together a decent spring situation post once I've chatted with the combatants a bit more.

[Krill]

Arshavin is no where near as good as Bale.

[Gaspar]

Arshavin is no where near as good as Bale.

Maybe, but Bale looks like an Ape and plays for a side which hasn't won the league in our two lifetimes added together.

As far as the game goes, I suppose I should talk a bit more about my terrible fall turn. The bottom line was I was setting up for England to pick up 2 SC in the north in the fall, while I got one, which would give me net 2 for the turn. It would have cost Jkaen the North Sea, but given that Germany would have had to disband while Jkaen got 2 builds and our boats completely surrounded the area, I think it would have been worth it. Sure, Germany would have ended up with an army in Finland out of it, but that's the unit they'd likely have disbanded, and even if not, they'd have been surrounded after I built the fleet in StP this year. Jkaen couldn't be talked into this.

This left me with the choice of going with Commodore, evicting england from Norway and the North Sea, and still getting net 2 builds for the year. I could and should have done this, but I felt bad about knifing Jkaen who's had no luck so far, and instead put together a pair of "accidental" misorders, moving to Nwg instead of Nwy, and then supporting the wrong German fleet, conveniently both misorders had a difference of 1 letter from the proper orders, so it was easy enough to explain. Unfortunately, the only person actually screwed by this sequence of events was me, as I only got one build this year, and my ships are no longer in the quality position they would have been.

So that's why I've been quiet, I was working a German stab behind the scenes, Jkaen chickened out, and now I'm having second thoughts as to whether I can actually work with England, and briefly debating staying somewhat agnostic in the north until the whole situation shakes itself out.

I really feel like I blew my best window of opportunity there, and I'm not sure if another will present itself of such quality. I much prefer a stab on a fall turn as well, where the other side doesn't get a chance to react until after the builds/disbands are calculated. I also have to pick a side in the south.

[Gaspar]

I'm sort of prepping a pros and cons post to help me decide which route to take in both the north and south, but before I do that... does anyone actually care, or has this game been so badly noobed up that everyone couldn't care less? I don't think you're going to find a lot of long term Diplomacy players out of it, I think maybe TT and Jowy have what it takes to play this game, and maybe me, despite my complete and utter stupidity last turn. The rest of us are all too nice.

I guess before I waste 3 hours putting together something comprehensive I'd like a little reassurance that someone will find it interesting, since I don't have a dedlurker to entertain.

[Mardoc]

I guess before I waste 3 hours putting together something comprehensive I'd like a little reassurance that someone will find it interesting, since I don't have a dedlurker to entertain.

Yes, I'll be interested.