Diplomacy No press Game 01 LURKER THREAD [NO PLAYERS]

[regoarrarr]

Ah I hadn't noticed that England can guarantee either Den or Swe with Nth-Den, Nwy S Fin-Swe. So that might make EF a little more palatable. Germany still gets 1 build but so does England

[regoarrarr]

Some thoughts from Austria

Well that was an interesting turn. I actually re-sent orders a few times, but finally sent this:

Vienna->Tyrolia
Trieste S Vienna-Tyrolia

This gives me a shot at taking Venice from Italy in the fall. I also ordered that with:

Gre->Ion

I didn't fully expect this to work, but if Italy foolishly ordered Ion-Tun in the spring (instead of the fall) I'd be in REALLY good shape in the fall. Italy didn't do that, but he made an equally odd play in convoying an army to Tunis...? I'm REALLY not sure why, the wise play would be to hold Ion in the spring, and then support Venice with the army in the fall and take Tunis in the fall. So basically, I have a strong chance of capturing Venice in the fall. It's really just a guessing game to see if he can figure out which unit I'll use for support.

Budapest and Serbia I was a bit stuck on, because if I left one open and Rumania got dislodged, he'd retreat right onto my centers... So really I wanted them to hold... So I supported Bul-Rum hoping to secure Turkey as an ally, and also hoping it might work. I figured for flexbility's sake I'd also order Bud-Rum to cut it as support just in case. Ended up not mattering and R/T just had a giant stand-off. Anyways, I'm rambling, so I'll go through everyone now (consider everything written before now to be "Austria")

Turkey - As I mentioned above, I think he didn't expect me to help him, because I could've supported into Rumania but not into Sevastapool. I think I'll order similar things next turn and hope he learns this time. It's also slightly tempting to just take Rumania myself, I'm just afraid of putting too big of a target on my head.

Russia - Ordered a fake convoy to Galicia for me... Not sure if he's signaling a DMZ or what..? I could always swap sides and help Russia instead. Considering it actually, as I could easily take Bulgaria this turn.

England - Taking a VERY anti-Russian stance, and he backed off of France. This makes me consider going A-R instead of A-T, because Russia may fold TOO easily.

France - Looks to be on England's side, and he may also be competition for Italy's centers. Little nervous about that actually.

Germany - Things are going nicely for him. Good. Also taking an anti-Russian stance. Russia's in a lot of trouble right now to say the least.

Italy - Not sure what he's doing really.

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So basically I've got a 50/50 shot on Venice... I could possibly take Rumania, but I'm afraid that could put me in a 1v2 spot against R and T. I could try supporting Turkey into Rumania and gaining an ally, but that doesn't net me any centers (that's ok, but I'm just noting it). I could also take Bulgaria, which would be practically guaranteed to succeed and put me firmly on Russia's side rather than Turkey. Hmm. Got some thinking to do.

Not sure what he means by a "50/50 shot on Venice" - Tri S Tyl-Ven is guaranteed to succeed (barring any monkey business from A Mun). Actually Tyl S Tri-Ven would work too (again, barring interference with the army in Munich).

His thoughts on switching sides to ally with Russia are intriguing. It might be true that he could paint a big target on his back, but with Russia hurting and Italy on the way out, attacking Turkey has some merit. Once Turkey gets to about 5-6 centers, he's really difficult to eliminate. Which is a positive to trying to take out Turkey now, rather than later.

[regoarrarr]

Thoughts from England

Italy is toast. Tri S Tyr-Ven will succeed. Talk about zero builds…AGAIN. Sure, Mun S Ven-Tyr WOULD block that (and a dead Italy = an Italy that can’t slow down France = bad for Germany), but do you really think that Germany’s going to order that? With 0 chance of Bur-Mun cutting him off?

Austria and Turkey seem to be moving against Russia, but can’t quite coordinate well enough. Bud S Bul – Rum is sufficient to guarantee that Rum falls with Bla S Bul-Rum and Arm-Sev, so Turkey may try to repeat that? I don’t want Russia to crumble, so I think I need to let off of some of my pressure on him. Nwy-Fin was necessary to get the extra unit in place, so hopefully he’ll like what I’m ordering this time.

Germany and France: That was productive for him. I was pondering Eng S Bur-Bel, not Eng-Bel, which would have bounced with Hol S Ruh-Bel. That would’ve been nice, and Edi-Nth would put me in just as good position. Darn. Eng-Bel Edi-Nth instead of Eng-Nth Edi-Nwg would have been a far, far, far superior line. (F Mao is potentially deadly, but really only if I don’t get a build), while leaving me more than enough ships to go against Germany. For France, I think he needs to move against Germany some. Mao-Eng doesn’t completely worry me (F Lon would be my build spot, obviously, but it’s not dangerous in and of itself). Par S Bur means that he holds Bur, and would have 2 units with my F Nth to counter-attack on Belgium next spring. Of course, I may not want France getting too big, either.

Germany’s moves:

Can he risk losing Denmark?

I’m doing Nwy S Fin – Swe and Fin – Swe for three reasons:

1) It’s less threatening to Russia. This is a good thing; Russia is dying, and I can go grab StP at my leisure later.

2) It’s less threatening to Russia, so he’s more likely to order Bot S Fin – Swe than he is Bot S Nwy – Swe (Getting A Fin out of his hair makes StP a little safer)

3) If Russia’s crazy enough to order Bot-Fin, then I’m not cut. However, I don’t think Russia is interesting in working with me right now. He knows that I can always help finish him off later; Germany may not have that ability.

Still, I can see no reason why I want to be strung out with an army in Fin that can’t do a whole lot; an enemy fleet in Fin ONLY threatens Sweden.

So, this leaves two theoretical options for Germany:

1) Swe-Den or Bal – Den is conceding Sweden, but keeps Denmark in his hands. It means he’s only getting on build (Bel; Hol S Bel is too obvious here for Bel to have any chance of falling)

2) Bal S Swe, Swe S Bot – Fin (why not? Or use it as a “Here’s what I suggest you do” move).

If he orders Swe-Den or Bal-Den (little to no difference in the end state: the retreating Swe fleet would end up in Ska instead, then Sweden is definitely toast, but he secures Denmark.

Screw it; I’m praying for Bal S Swe and Bot S Fin – Swe, and ordering Nth – Den and Fin – Swe with Nwy S Fin – Swe and Nwg – Nth (again, expecting Mao – Eng, I need to keep the North Sea full at all times).

[regoarrarr]

1902 thoughts from Russia

My weak opening has attracted vultures from around the world. Let's
hope some of them pause to consider the bigger picture.

England and France seem to be working together, so I'm hoping Germany
will cut England's support into St Petersburg (Norway will likely
support Army Finland - St Petersburg). I'm also hoping Turkey and
Austria are unable to coordinate in Rumania. If we get another
stalemate down south maybe Turkey or Austria will reconsider their
cooperation.

[regoarrarr]

More thoughts from Austria

Yes, I know I've already given my analysis, but I thought I'd provide a little bit of insight into my thought process here... See for me, the key unit this coming turn is the Turkish fleet in the Aegean Sea. If I knew what that unit was doing, it would dictate my moves for this turn. If Turkey was expecting hostility from me, he'd likely order Aeg->Gre, because if I move out of Greece, he's sniped a center, and if I'm attacking Bulgaria, he gets to cut Greece's support. If he's still unsure after that spring turn (despite ordering favorable moves for him), I can't really afford to order Gre-Ion and risk him ordering Aeg-Gre. I also cannot order Ser-Bul with Gre support because it'd fail.

HOWEVA, he may see me as an ally now after the Rumania thing. So if that's the case, what would he do with that fleet? Realistic options:

1) Support Bulgaria - just to be safe
2) Order Aeg->Ion - to move on Italy because that fleet has little else to do
3) Support Gre->Ion

See, #3 is what I'd REALLY like. Because either I get to control Ion (Italy = dead dead dead), or I get to take Bulgaria. Problem is, I just can't count on those orders. I'm not sure I want to swap sides and help Russia unless I can get a center this turn, and I just am not sure how likely it is that I can actually take Bulgaria.

I think the problem in my head is that Russia is about to get hit hard from the north (seriously, LOOK at England, Stp is toast), and if Turkey wins his Russia front, who is going to help me kill him exactly? It's a 1v1, and I'm not nuts about my chances to dispose against Turkey in a straight-up 1v1, especially when I may be in conflict with France over Italy's centers. So the Bulgaria thing is awfully tempting, but... I just don't know what that dang Aegean fleet is going to do.

[Mardoc]

It's interesting to see the overcompensation here caused by lack of communication - Russia may swing to only being attacked by Turkey solely as a result of England and Austria not being able to share info. At least for a season, he could be safe just because no one wants him to die quick.

I'm hardly an expert, but I have trouble understanding Austria's concern about Russia dying, when he's also profiting from Italy, and Germany's looking strong. Surely Germany can keep France busy for the most part? England's concern makes more sense to me, he wants the southern triangle unresolved.

[regoarrarr]

It's interesting to see the overcompensation here caused by lack of communication - Russia may swing to only being attacked by Turkey solely as a result of England and Austria not being able to share info. At least for a season, he could be safe just because no one wants him to die quick.

I'm hardly an expert, but I have trouble understanding Austria's concern about Russia dying, when he's also profiting from Italy, and Germany's looking strong. Surely Germany can keep France busy for the most part? England's concern makes more sense to me, he wants the southern triangle unresolved.

The thing about no-press is that it's a LOT harder to arrange dogpile / "stop the leader" alliances (obviously).

So typically in a no-press environment you really do want to just get as big as you can, as fast as you can. I think that if I were Austria I'd be very tempted to try and take on both Russia AND Turkey (and Italy).

And I am not clear if he is clear that he's got Venice guaranteed this year or not

[Mardoc]

And I am not clear if he is clear that he's got Venice guaranteed this year or not

His analysis does suggest that he thinks Venice could cut the support to an attack on Venice. That's the only way I can see it becoming a 50/50 shot rather than a debate on what Germany will do.

That's probably not a misconception worth correcting, though, unless he explicitly asks.

[T-hawk]

Thoughts from England

Guessing at England's identity:

I think that reads like Cyneheard, with well-organized lists, frequent parentheticals, and deep thoughts into opposing perspectives. And it would make sense if Cyneheard wanted to try a country on the other side of the map from his Russia in Dip game 1.

[Maniac Marshall]

Maniac Marshal is probably in as well.

FYI, I'm not playing. I'm not big on gunboat, and with GenCon coming up this weekend, I'll have an opportunity to play live.

I actually think I'd be a dead giveaway with my writing style, though perhaps I might be confused with Cy, as we tend to analyze things in a similar manner.

I think I know who almost everyone is in this game, though I think I'll keep it to myself, as I'm far more interested in watching everyone else guess.