[SPOILERS] Diplo2 Lurker Thread - players KEEP OUT

[Mardoc]

So I've been bad about updating, I know. But, to be fair, I've been fairly taciturn in my diplo as well. I sent this off this morning to Bob/Gaspar. My paranoia will go up two points for every hour they delay response.

Gents,

Looks like this should be England's last hurrah this turn if we can coordinate this right. My thoughts:
Gaspar, do you mind waiting one more season to get Norway? If both of your Fleets can support my F Hel -Nth this spring, then his support is cut and I can easily support you into Nor in the fall.
Bob, you have two interesting options. On the one hand, you can support yourself into the channel without issue if you'd like, and have at least a shot at London in the fall. More interesting, however, would be to move your Mao fleet into the Irish Sea while trying to go in unsupported with the Brest fleet. Then in the fall you have a 100% sure chance of taking Liverpool (I know the initial plan was for me to take Edi/Lvr and you Lon, but this would work too, right?) Either by convoy or at worst by boat.

Here's to wars going well,
-Commodore

It's just my opinion here - but why should Russia participate in the dismantling of England proposed here? Germany just 'temporarily' needs his SC again, is in position to pick up most of the spoils, and perhaps most importantly, has an obvious next target of, well, Russia. Perhaps he'd go after France, but in any case he'd be an obvious threat.

Conversely, if Russia helps England, that ties down all three of EFG fighting each other, and Russia can snipe around the edges. In the event ER prospers, Russia's in position to acquire the spoils. He's apparently got a fairly secure southern border at the moment, with Turkey onboard for at least a temporary Juggernaut, so he needs to expand somewhere, and north is where is forces are, at least for now.

It's not like his participation in the Austrian dogpile, where he seems to have gotten half of Austria/Balkans and acquired an ally in the process. If anything, he'd be auditioning for Germany's role there, the helpful soul who doesn't gain anything but goodwill and new neighbors (and we know how valuable goodwill is in Diplo ).

[Maniac Marshall]

It's really not in Russia's interest to dismantle England, and I doubt that's his plan. I expect he is planning on stabbing Germany in the fall. Sadly, I think he missed his best chance in the north last turn by effectively outsmarting himself with the Scandinavia plan. He's basically realized his mistakes, but now it's probably going to be much tougher sledding. We'll see.

[Cyneheard]

Here's one way to do that, if England agreed:
Nwy-Swe (to cut support)
Nwg S Edi-Nth
Edi-Nth
Lon S Edi-Nth
Nth-Den
Ska S Nth-Den
StP-Fin

Yes, it allows Bre-Eng (which succeeds ANYWAY unless the orders are Nth-Eng with Lon support). But Nth-Den has two supports, as does Edi-Nth.
Maximum # of supports possibly into Nth by Germany alone:
1 support. So Edi-Nth succeeds, assuming that Nth is empty (since he can't dislodge his own Nth fleet)
Assuming that Germany is not evacuating Sweden (which would be pure if he thinks he can trust Russia, and frankly conceding Sweden is painful for him anyway), then both A Kie and F Hel have to be used to support a move into Denmark to prevent it from being bounced. I suspect that Germany's thinking of doing Swe S Kie-Den, and using Hel and Bel to work on Nth, which gets him nowhere...because Russia is helping England and not him.

Then, in the fall, we've got:
Germany in Swe, Kie, Hel, Bel
France in Eng and Mao
England in Nwy, Den (likely), Nth, Lon, (Edi if Nth-Den fails)
Russia in Nwg, Ska, Fin

So, fall orders would be (assuming Den succeeds for Eng):
Fin-Swe
Nwy S Fin-Swe
Nwg - Nth
Lon S Nwg- Nth: The problem here is that it requires almost total trust of Russia by England. But everything else that happens breaks Germany's back, and Nth would likely see a bounce anyway.
Nth - Hel
Ska S Den

Ska's support of Denmark is uncuttable. Nth-Hel and Fin-Swe will necessarily cut the support of one or the other; Swe is definitely dislodged, so I expect Swe-Den with Hel and Kie support would be the plan, and that would then fail. Russia would be sitting pretty with Ska/Swe and likely Nwg, and England picks up a build himself. The French fleets become much less dangerous once you've got an extra fleet in Lvp to deal with them and while Germany worries about everything else.

[uberfish]

Russia's fleets look very disorganized, he really should have picked a side last year.

[Mardoc]

Yup. I make comments about being worried about Bob. Bob posts in his thread, not emailing back. Lurker thread has gone active. Bur was not a bumble.

So, stab anyone?

I love it! The slim amount of info required to cause full-blown paranoia! . Which is why I'm posting here and not in his thread, of course, this is a very delicate time to be injecting any info whatsoever.

I strongly doubt Bob would be stabbing based on what he's posted, sticking with Germany seems definitely the low-maintenance option here, but I suppose if he were more engaged, he could switch to allying with England.

[Cyneheard]

Well, if ER happens like I suggested, then France has no reason not to go for a Dead Germany. Russia's goal in that case is probably to get Nwy and Swe, while E and F are welcome to the rest.

And, of course, more lurker posts to ratchet up the paranoia even more!

[Maniac Marshall]

It'll be REALLY funny if Germany moves his units against France only to bail out Russia's poor last year and hand him Scandanavia

I was actually a bit surprised to see Bob sign up for this game. Based on my rather extensive dealings with him in PB3, I was pretty sure this wouldn't be his cup of tea. He's very straightforward in his dealings, and this game is not about that...

I was rather hoping to see France switch gears and ally with Russia, and make a push on Italy and Germany, which he could have easily enough. Wasn't really expecting it, but it was somewhat open and would have been interesting...

In a lot of ways Diplomacy is meant to be diplomatically played the exact opposite of the way the PB/PBEM games are played here. Never break an agreement in Civ, or no one will ever trust you again... in any game... even years from now. Treaties are sacrosanct. (Not saying that's wrong at all mind you.)

In Diplomacy, you should never trust anyone to begin with, unless you've been able to clearly show them why working with you is in their best interest... (or better yet, deceiving them in to believing that ), or you really do not have an option better than to trust them. It's meant to be played seriously, but not TAKEN seriously. That's a hard thing for a lot of people to do.

I think the concept of constantly shifting alliances is a bit of an anathema, here too. Seems to be a lot of A works with B vs C until C is dead, and only then do we begin to consider what to do next thinking going on (not universally, but a lot), rather than a constant evaluation of what it's in their best interest to do right now.

@ Cynheard - Your analysis looks sound at a glance. I've kinda quit analyzing this game... Still, that's going to take major coordination with England now. I do expect England would probably do whatever Russia asked at this point, judging by England's recent posts however. And if Russia is only interested in Sweden and Norway... He could have both of those perfoce right now X_X

[Cyneheard]

nobody seems to have much of a stomach for anything.

Diplomacy ain't beanbag.


At this point, I think I have to go agree with the "dissolved into farce" school of thought within this thread. Gaspar's inability to get Jkaen to do ANYTHING of note just gave Commodore the time he needs to get his act together up north.

[Maniac Marshall]

Unless the diplomatic situation changes, I can't see this game actually ending well for Russia now. England is going to collapse because he screwed around last year and did nothing useful to save his life when there was a really good plan by Russia that would have helped him, and Russia and Turkey are fairly well boxed in if I and G cooperate.

Considering the diplomacy that's gone on in this game so far, I see a F/G/I vs R/T coming... There's really nothing in that for France, though, so maybe R/T can get France to come in on their side...

It just doesn't seem like any of the F/G/I people have any inclination to not work together though.

[antisocialmunky]

I DEMAND THAT THIS THREAD LIVE!!!