The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[kjn]

CivFr did a 1-pop whip earlier today, but I didn't have the opportunity to note the change until now.

Their new score is 120, and the rival average population shrank with 5000, ie it's a 1-pop whip of a size 2 city.

Settling Horse Feathers added 2 land tiles to our empire, but also put us from #4 to #2 in land area, giving an upper bound to the sizes of the land that Apolyton and CivPlayers control.

[mostly_harmless]

Early turn demo screenshot grabbed.
Will post here later.

mh

[kjn]

T59 - 1640BC

Cliff's Notes: The Germans grew a city to size 3. CivFr grew a city to size 2. CivPlayers probably researched Fishing, with an outside chance of Priesthood. Univers received land points and grew two cities to size 5 and 4.

Demos:

Not too many score changes this turn. The Germans gained 3, CivFr 2, CivPlayers 6, and Univers 9. So the Germans and CivFr grew a pop, CivPlayers a tech, and Univers grew two pop and gained 5 land points for their third city (founded T39).

Rival total population up 89000, with no changes to top or worst or to the top cities. Total power rose with 2000, split between Univers and the Germans for pop. A population growth of 89000 over four cities gives growth to size 2, 3, 4, and 5.

The Germans have only size 2 cities (apart from their size 5 capital), so they get a size 3. CivFr is the only one of them with a size 1, so they get a size 2, putting them at 5, 3, 2, and 1. Univers gets the growths to 4 and 5, with cities of size 5, 4, 3, and 2.

CivPlayers gained their tech in 3t. The two main candidates are Fishing and Priesthood. Meditation required a raw beaker pace of 24 (144 / (5 * 1.2)). Fishing requires 24 (72 / 3); Priesthood 30 (108 / (3 * 1.2)); Masonry 35 (144 / (3 * 1.4)). I put them down for Fishing for now, but I wouldn't put down Priesthood as impossible.

[kjn]

CivPlayers settled their fourth city this turn. It added 7 land tiles to their empire, and they're up to 65 controlled tiles and added 1000 to their power. Since rival worst increased from 27000 to 28000 with this, this means that CivPlayers are rival worst in power.

[NobleHelium]

CivPlayers still not researching BW? Fishy fishy...

[NobleHelium]

Not sure if we've done this yet, but before we finish researching Writing this turn we should check whether we can sign OB with CFC and the Germans, which will tell us whether they have Writing.

[kjn]

Good call - but no, neither the Germans nor CFC have Writing yet.

I was also thinking a bit more about CivPlayers, and I think it's quite possible that they are planning to Oracle Code of Laws. The bad news for us is that they have a much shorter tech path, Writing -> Oracle, instead of us who need to clear Math first. The good news for us is that they are likely production constrained, since they lack BW.

Before they ended their turn, CFC did a 2-pop whip and the rival global population dropped with 69000, with rival worst dropping to 48000 (was 55000), and since their capital dropped out we know it was a whip of their capital.

However, that makes the rival worst value wrong - they need 2 size 3 and one size 2 city for 48000 in population, not a size 4 and a size 1 city. I will need to hunt down which Civ which should get a 4-1 city pair after breakfast. CFC's cities were settled T35 and T51, giving some search constraints.

[Old Harry]

If civplayers did just get priesthood can you guess when could they finish the Oracle?

[kjn]

A look at the score tracking tells me I did an incorrect guess on the city growth assignments on T57, when 4 teams had pop growths with a combined population increase with 52000, which implies two cities of size 1, one of size 2, and one of size 3 growing.

T57

The teams were the Germans with cities of size 5, 2, 1, and 1, and recent whippings. CivFr with cities of size 4, 3, 1, and 1. CFC has cities of size 5, 3, and 1 (6t since last growth). Univers has cities of size 4, 3, 2, and 1.

Ie, Univers can take any slot, Germans can take a 1 or 2 slot, and CivFr and CFC can take a 1 or 3 slot.

CFC grew their third city to size 2 in 6t, taking a 1 slot.

I put a 3 slot on Univers, they have 1t more to grow a size 3 city than CivFr. That gives a 2 slot to the Germans and a 1 slot to CivFr.

So by the end of T57 (right before ending turn) the Germans had cities of size 5, 3, 1, and 1; CivFr had cities of size 4, 3, 2, and 1; CFC had cities of size 5, 3, and 2; and Univers had cities of size 4, 4, 2, and 1.

This also means I need to re-assess T58 and T59 as well...

T58

The population increase this turn was 94000, and it was divided over 6 pop growths: 2 for Spanish, 1 for Apolyton, 1 for the Germans, 1 for CivFr (who also whipped a size 2 city), and 1 for Univers. Total changes were thus +99000 -5000.

CivFr grew their capital to 5 (from top cities screen), and also whipped a size 2 city, so their cities were now 5, 3, 1, and 1 just before the turn ended. The Spanish grew to 4, 2, and 1, as per rival worst of 55000. Apolyton grew a size 2 city as per rival best, with cities of size 6, 5, 3, and 1. That leaves size 1 growths to the Germans and Univers. The Germans have cities of size 5, 3, 2, and 1. Univers have cities of size 4, 4, 2, and 2.

T59

This turn the population increase was 89000 over 4 pop points: 1 each for the Germans and CivFr, and 2 for Univers. 89000 over 4 pop points means growth of cities with size 4, 3, 2, and 1. This was followed by a 2-pop whip by CFC, with a loss of 69000 population, a 5-to-3 whip.

Univers is the only one with a size 4 city, so they get the 4. Then they only have size 2 cities, so they take the 2 as well. That leaves me with proctonumerology in the case of the Germans and CivFr. I put the growth to 4 on CivFr and to size 2 on the Germans, but it might easily be the other way around.

That leaves Univers with cities of size 5, 4, 3, and 2; the Germans with a tentative 5, 3, 2, and 2; and CivFr with a tentative 5, 4, 1, and 1.

Now we'll have to wait for the next pop growth or whip causing me to change these estimates!

[kjn]

If civplayers did just get priesthood can you guess when could they finish the Oracle?

Hard to assess. They will be required to slowbuild the Oracle.

On the tech front, they will need Writing. They researched Meditation and Priesthood (252b) in 8t, giving 31.5b on average, from 26.25 base beakers per turn. Say 27. They will get a 1.6 bonus on Writing, so will reach 43.2bpt. It will take them 5 or 6t to research Writing in this case, ie T64 or T65, so they have a margin there.

If they are to get the wonder on T69 (ie finish it on T68 just as us) they need to build it in 9t to tie with us, and 8t to beat us. They will need 19hpt to beat us, and 17hpt to tie with us, and they have a size 5 city. 2 from city tile, 1 from deer, 3 from plains cow. So they can do it, but I doubt it, not without plenty of bare hills that they could mine.