Success! Captured SWAT losing 5 cannon, 1 catapult, and 2 muskets. This result was about as expected, but the actual attack was a bit different. Both of my "incite revolt" spies were caught at 75% odds of success
leaving me with 11 cannon and the choice to bombard or just throw them all in. Ultimately I decided to bombard wih 4 (reducing defences to from 60% to 12%) and attack with the remaining 7. No really unlucky or lucky dice rolls for either side. After the initial suicide cannons I killed 20 units and lost 2 muskets at about 87% :shrug:
1st cannon did his duty vs the CG3 grenadier, getting in 3 hits. I think the only mildly unlucky part of the battle was that only 1 of AT's grenadiers was ever selected to take collateral damage. This means that my cannons always went up against the grenadiers at lower odds.
After sending in all my cannon I checked odds with various units. C2 musket gets 45%, unpromoted Grenadier gets 69%, CR2 grenadier gets 95%. Grenadier wins! Just imagine if I had CR3 Grens! Soon I'll probably revolt to Vassalage so my heroic epic can pump them out. I'm giving myself one more turn to commit to the revolt.
Oddly enough, my next CR2 grenadier only got 92% vs. the next defender. Still won though.
I saved my unpromoted grenadiers. After picking off two more units with knights at around 90% my muskets were up to 87%. AT had dry whipped a crossbow ("needlessly" killing some of
MY pop in SWAT) that didn't take much collateral and got 50/50 odds with my maces still. At this point I basically sent in muskets. with 3 relined defenders remaining I got the 10th XP on two grenadiers without taking a hit and then captured.
CAPTURE SWAT!!! Keep! 145 pillage gold, 5T of resistance, and no building survided
... moving on.
AT chose to continue attaking Jowy in the west with his slow movers. Probably the right choice??? They would have taken 6 turns to reach MASH and could not have arrived in time for my stack to march down (assuming I did not wait to heal). The smaller stack is visible on that hill, but the bigger stack with the cannons isn't visible. It started on the YELLOW circle and presumably moved W.
I don't have a screenshot of the knights, but they started on the sign and moved 6 tiles East into a city there. They are still 7 tiles from MASH and can't hit this turn. AT doesn't have any other units visible except 1 archer/city in the core and a few LB and 1 or 2 cannon north of AT's lake.
After capturing SWAT and checking AT's force distrubution via EP vision the focus shifted to capturing MASH. AT drafted 3 times last turn: SWAT, MASH, and the city N of MASH (west of SWAT).
The MASH draftee was blocking the road, but a C2/pinch Knight easily cleared the way. Then it's GG time and Commando
99.1% ...
SUCCESS! Captured MASH ... But what's this? The culture north/east of mash didn't clear immediately. I have about 6 knights and 2 impi that could advance to MASH this turn if the road was open, but now ... Not so much
Do I keep MASH? Or Raze? Lots of buildings survived (presumably because there was not much fighting), and it has Hindu Shrine @25gpt and Colossus. I was planning to keep it originally because I thought I could get units in immediately, but now a single Knight/Grenadier could recapture.
But I have EP vision on all AT's cities. He did not whip anything last turn and a mentioned above I have sight of all 3 draftees (2 are dead now and the last is 3W of SWAT. AT doesn't have a city within 3 tiles so a new drafty couldn't reach in 1-turn. AT's eastern core cities have been building infrastructure and I haven't seen any units except lone archers fortified in cities. Therefore I gambled that (1) AT doesn't have a unit in the fog, and (2) the culture will clear on the next turn roll and allow me to move through on the road.
All my knights had been damaged by collateral so I healed in place with SuperMedic. All slow movers with enough movement are 3NE of MASH. If MASH is still ours and the if the culture is clear I'll have enough force in place next turn to defy AT for a while given that his remaining army is currently invading Jowy. I captured and deleted 2 workers with that HA
The benefit of acquiring MASH in my opinion outweigh the risk. The Shrine + Bank pay unit upkeep for 35+ units. It effectively gives me a 1-city front vs AT so I can stuff 35 units in there and hold it at no net cost. Colossus gives me immediate 12 commerce nationwide and makes growing onto coast much more attractive.
Only time will tell whether this was a good decision. One important implication is that AT will probably go all-out military.
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[later in the day, but before getting back to internet]
I have decided to make the swap to Vassalage. The Globe city has a ton of unshared tiles, many of them now 2/0/4 which is quite decent. It also has plenty of food to grow quickly without worrying about any happy cap. Once it's filled out all the tiles there I'll pave over the farms with WS and end up with another decent hammer site as well. I still have double draft unhappiness in many of my cities so Nationalism isn't all too useful ATM. I'll draft any cities with enough happy to stack another draft (probably Globe and just one or two more)