(July 31st, 2013, 14:46)Boldly Going Nowhere Wrote: I just would hope for a bit of communication when these kinds of things come up.
@Molach. I was watching the clock last night and couldn't play the turn until after Kuro played. He played after I went to bed so obviously I couldn't play then. And I couldn't post about it in the tech thread ahead of time without giving it away that we're playing as if we're already in a turn split since we're about to declare war. We don't have to eat crow about this one and I feel no remorse for delaying the game 6 hours since the only alternative would be to possibly give away a potential tactical advantage.
Played: Pitboss 18 - Kublai Khan of Germany Somalia | Pitboss 11 - De Gaulle of Byzantium | Pitboss 8 - Churchill of Portugal | PB7 - Mao of Native America | PBEM29 Greens - Mao of Babylon
Kuro swapped to HR just as I invade. Bad timing. I'm wondering if he'll have needed an extra turn of production to save a city at some point. Also, tell me that isn't the GA from Music already. I really hope that was a low odds artist from someone running a bastard pool in Caste.
88% to win and no reinforcements. Delicious.
Just a quick look since I won't be able to check while we're at war. Nothing to see here.
Too bad it hadn't grown, and more gold would have been nice, but this city is young. Note the signpost by Chevrolet. 4/2 whip. Kuro is nervous...
As he should be, apparently. I wish I had thought to check here before invading the other city. No way I thought this would be empty. Also, this city is now very far out and difficult to reinforce. I have the axe/chariot pair to land T107.
Sisu(b) is well-garrisoned for a chariot attack. I've drawn in the number of cottage turns worked so far. I'm seeing perhaps too many workers in his lands and far too few cities. He has plenty of cottages that he hasn't worked yet, and is chopping out jungle to his north. I'm curious why he isn't building more cities. suttree must be pressing him closely, but the land to the east of this picture looks pretty nice to me. Less cottages, more chops into axes (etc) if he took all your land. I'll acknowledge that I have several cottages I haven't worked at Mister Love. For a while I had nothing better to do (or so I think) while waiting for IW to come in.
Xenu, a bare map view of Sisu(b)'s Oracle/Holy city. I see a monument, Oracle, and whatever that green building is. Decipher.
Suttree declared on Oxy, who seems likely to get on the wrong end of that deal. I don't want suttree making any gains, and I want more happy resources. Oxy, you should take the stone and build a wall here and there. But, he didn't.
I also proposed this. Azza accepted. We'll have our third rice (both currently traded away) online at the new city soon.
So, so average. So very, very average. At 100% science, so very average.
T107
So, let's see what's going on at Kuro's Chevrolet city...
Bah, get that out of here. I want a Chevy, even though I've always much preferred a Ford. (Cue the outrage from diehard GM fans/lurker scum).
Ok, so Kuro reinforced. I missed highlighting his garrison, but he has a combat 1 axe, no fortify (5% fort next turn) and a combat 2/melee axe, no fortify, 3.6/5 (healing in home city) (5% fort next turn, plus healing). I saw that before I landed my axe. I didn't see the warrior, which I think will probably attack my axe because it is ever so slightly weaker than the top defender in the city. [QUESTION: pretty much all decimals round down in Civ, right? IIRC the count was 7.5 for my axe defending vs. the warrior (ignoring 50% bonus b/c Kuro's axe would get it too) whereas it would be 7.5625 for Kuro's axe in the city. So am I do assume this gets rounded down to 7.5 too? And, in that case, that the barb would choose the city because it's a higher value target? I have no idea.] I hope it dies without doing me any damage, because I've got an outside chance of capturing next turn if Kuro can't get a defender in there. If he dry whipped the second axe, I should be ok. If he 2popped with lots of overflow, not dry whipped but I'll be damned if I'll call it a wet whip, I'll be seeing another unit in a turn or so. It's helpful that the barb is sitting on his good production tile. Also, I see a monument in there, so I want to strike quickly before the 20% cultural bonus is added to the defense. I have no idea when borders will pop here.
I ran a sim and think that I can pull off the attack. Assuming no additional defenders (which would torpedo the entire thing), I'll plan to suicide my axe at ~21% to scratch the top defender so my chariot can kill the combat2/melee axe while it is weak. That should earn a promotion for the chariot, so I can promo/heal next turn and clean up the scratched axe. In my sim, this was generally a good plan:
combat 1 axe, no fortify (5% fort next turn)
combat 2/melee axe, no fortify, 3.6/5 (healing in home city) (5%fort next turn, even healing)
city on hill, 0 cult def
---
WIN
chariot (no promo) vs. c2/melee axe 73%
chariot vs. c1 axe (no fort bonus)- 78%
axe vs. c1 axe (no fort bonus)- 21.3%
chariot vs. 3.6 c2/melee axe (5% fort) - 96.2%
next turn - 2.7/4 chariot (promo available, 62.7% before, 96.7% @combat 1, 3.4/4) vs. C1 axe 3.5/5
---
WIN
axe vs. c1 axe (no fort bonus)- 21.3% - win
chariot vs. 3.6 c2/melee axe (5% fort) - 96.2% - win
---
axe vs. c1 axe (no fort bonus)- 21.3% -
chariot vs. 3.6 c2/melee axe (5% fort) - 96.2% -
---
LOSS
4hits on surviving chariot = ~56.1%
---
Loss
axe vs. c1 axe (no fort bonus)- 21.3% -
chariot vs. 3.6 c2/melee axe (5% fort) - 96.2% -
---
Axe first (21.3%), die, then Chariot (96.2%) win, then Chariot promo/heal, attack damaged axe:
WIN 52%
WIN 96%
WIN 76%
WIN 96%
WIN 98%
WIN 76.3%
LOSS 52.2%
WIN 90.3%
WIN 99.7 (chariot won first flawlessly)
LOSS 95.6 (chariot lost first combat)
WIN 88% (chariot won first flawlessly)
WIN 99.7 (chariot won first flawlessly)
WIN 96% (chariot won first flawlessly)
WIN 96.2% (Axe won ~21.3%)
WIN 84.7 (chariot heavily damaged after 1st combat, axe also heavily damaged)
WIN 98.9
LOSS 90%
WIN 96.2% (Axe won ~21.3%)
LOSS 16.6% (withdrew, .6/4)
WIN 76%
WIN 99.9%
LOSS 16% (axe did no damage in scratch attack)
WIN 99.9%
WIN 56.1%
WIN 96.2% (Axe won ~21.3%)
WIN 59.5%
Bottom line -
26 sims: 5 losses = ~80% if Kuro does not reinforce or attack out...
WORTH NOTING: I may have been off 5% on assumed fortification bonus on the scratch axe defender, but I couldn't run the whole sim again. So, I'll slightly adjust our odds of success down to 70%. That's still totally worth the risk of 65h in units. I hope the 5% doesn't throw things off much more than that.
Kuro should have about a 50/50 chance to attack out with the surviving axe to kill my chariot, depending on how the rolls go. I'm keeping fingers crossed that he won't risk it with his last surviving defender. And, depending on what kind of damage, if any, the barb does, and whether or not he gets another unit in on either of T107-8.
Let's call this contingency planning. Happy Face is going to build a second galley. I don't want to build it in my Barracks city, but it's the best I have at the moment. I can pull the axe from The Boathouse and get it on the galley, as well as pull both of my combat2/melee chariots, including yours, Noble, to get onto the original galley if this attack fails. This will leave us light down here, but I think Sisu(b) is busy enough for now that he won't mind letting us run over Kuro for a little while. I'd rather play risky than run a middling, boring game. If I have to call off the attack this turn, I can camp on Kuro's hill/forest deer until I have more units in play. Or I can see if he'll just trade peace for the city and be done with this whole thing. We lose nothing by asking, right?
Mainly only relevant to see Kuro's graphs for now. His power bar is pretty flat, but this doesn't reflect when he first saw my chariots quite yet. I'm still not expecting to see much of a jump. He should probably just write this city off. It's too far away and too exposed.
Retep has a lot of cities and would certainly parlay this into HG. I'm not eager to help my large neighbor do that. Decline. I hope to have both Ivory and Sheep in around 10t anyway.
This one is a real head scratcher.
Nice land. The jungle looks a little thinner here.
So my sim was useless. The combat2/melee axe healed to 4.6/5, so it was top defender. So, I sent in the chariot at 77%, wishing I had landed it beneath my axe last turn for cover...
...and won, with a very favorable result. We only took one hit! Now, I fully expect the warrior to attack and severely injure my chariot, but I have the second chariot loaded up on the galley and it can attack amphibiously next turn after the axe or surviving chariot scratches Kuro's axe. Can't wait.
No buildup. No reaction. I'm just not sure what to make of this, other than Kuro has written this off as a loss.
Go, go, gadget Moai! I'll dump overflow, then start on the lighthouse, and dump that overflow once I can 2pop whip that. And on, and on...
Late to reply but the green building is either a temple or monastery. Don't think it's a shrine. I don't have a PC around so I can't test right now. But if you need to know play in world builder with Buddhist buildings and you'll see it. I think you missed a library too, though. Go back to that zoom level and do a CTRL+right arrow to rotate the view, you should see the building with the arch, I think that is a library.
Played: Pitboss 18 - Kublai Khan of Germany Somalia | Pitboss 11 - De Gaulle of Byzantium | Pitboss 8 - Churchill of Portugal | PB7 - Mao of Native America | PBEM29 Greens - Mao of Babylon
Played: Pitboss 18 - Kublai Khan of Germany Somalia | Pitboss 11 - De Gaulle of Byzantium | Pitboss 8 - Churchill of Portugal | PB7 - Mao of Native America | PBEM29 Greens - Mao of Babylon