We had a quick chat about great people where I couldn't spell formual and I might have convinced Fintourist to go all-in for GPs. If we do my plan it would look something like:
As you can see we're polluting with engineer points (to rush Taj if possible - although with dtay on a lib run that might not happen and we can get Notre Dame or Angkor Wat instead) and prophet points for a Taoist shrine. They won't be high odds, but worth a shot...
I'm not sure if Om goes for sci or merchant at this point, we need to work out how good trade missions will be on this map (anyone know a formual?).
(December 11th, 2013, 20:31)Ceiliazul Wrote: yay I get cookie! good stuff in thr whipping and meta analysis.
Amazing performance
(December 11th, 2013, 20:06)Old Harry Wrote: We had a quick chat about great people where I couldn't spell formual and I might have convinced Fintourist to go all-in for GPs.
And Harry is feeling optimistic! But you know, I'm open to stuff. Below is a small exercise I did so that I could make up my mind. The consequence is that if Harry can convince me that those GPs can be used wisely I'm in.
Case example: Paficism specialists vs. GA-boosted tiles
GP:Agincourt 500 GPP Scientist Born: EOT 153 (at the end of the GA) Usage: Bulb
So let's set the start of turn 154 as "time 0"
If we would use the GS immediately we would get 1500 + 3*~100 pop = ~1800 beakers. Assuming that we use it for a tech that has 1-prereq, some of our opponents know it, and on average we get 15 % multiplier to our commerce from libraries it translates to 1800/(1.25*1.15) = ~1250 commerce
So what did it cost for us to get that 1250 commerce prize?
Seven opened that nice thread with following simplification:
Now we are talking about size 14 capital so food is already less valuable, consequently I'm just roughly using this: 1 food = 7 points
1 hammer = 5 points
1 beaker = 3 points
and because or capital has library let's simplify further:
1 commerce = 3*1.25 = 3.75 points
So in order to produce that GS we need 55.5 specialist turns. If we would not produce a GP I would say that we would work 2/0/4 tiles (some of tiles would be 2/0/3 coast, some more valuable such as silver). And we remember that scientists also produce 3 beakers that get the library bonus meaning that they are currently as valuable as commerce. So I say that overall we pay 2 food and 1 commerce per scientist turn. If I use my random values from the above table and convert food into commerce I estimate that we lose 4.75 commerce per scientist turn. Overall this makes the cost of producing GS 4.75 commece * 55.5 specialist turns = 265 commerceIf we assume switch into Bureaucracy that will increase the value a bit, but not dramatically
Ok that's a big difference (even if you finetune variables) that practically says that GA-Pacifism specialists are awesome (when forgetting the civic costs etc). However, we haven't considered the time value of commerce yet.
Seven and others use in the thread I linked a discount rate of 3.5 % for quick speed. Normal speed equivalent is ~2.3 %. Since those scientists turns are worked before the "time 0" (on average 2.5 turns earlier) the comparable value of that lost commerce is:
265 * 1.023^2.5 = 280 commerce
Ok, the difference is still big. But we are probably not using our GS immediately after it's born. So how late are we allowed to use our GS so that it's still makes sense to produce it?
The equation is: 1250/(1.023^X) = 280
and thus the X = ~66
So what this means is that producing the GS is solid as long as we can use it before 66 turns have gone since it's birth.
Ok, unless someone can point out that I'm missing something or some of my assumptions are totally off (and changing them affects the result siginificantly), I'm on board with abusing the pacifism as much as we can. Only worry is that if those hammers/commerce we are losing during the GA cause us to miss a certain extremely valuable target such as winning the war or winning a free great person or something, then the decision is of course wrong..
Here is the formula I found for GM at CFC:
Quote:great merchant trade value = 500 + 200*trade_value (also scaled with game speed)
trade_value is the trade route gold that would the other guy have with our capital
So feel free to harry repeat the exercise for GM or do some kind of a comparison whether we should produce scientists or merchants..
I thought you had an exam this morning, didn't realise it was in advanced golden age mechanics!
Trade value is relative to size of capital, and it seems that we get 5gpt from Ichabod's size 14 cities, so if that's reversed we can get 1500 gold. Dunno if that has to be in his capital or could be in one of the cities on the island though. I'll try simming it to see. Any rate that's 250 gold more than the scientist is worth and allows us to research what we want rather than bulbing from a list. If its possible to get a good return from his island cities then one road allows us to pop the merchant without Ichabod knowing (otherwise he might ask for a cut).
What trickery is this? It seems TBSJ cancelled our 5gpt + Ivory for Silver + Dyes deal and now want to substitute Ivory for Silver (I forgot to take a pic of the trade screen). We already get Ivory + Spice for Dye from Dhalphir (loaded in our favour due to open borders), which TBS can't see. We also wanted to cancel our silver-spices deal with Pindicooter and re-offer silver-stone+wheat. This is annoying because we'll be locked into giving all our sources of silver away for ten turns, so I think we just turn it down and hope that Dhalphir has no reason to stop giving us Ivory. Should we try Ivory for Dye with TBSJ or try to line Ivory up from someone else just in case?
Further down the event log you can see we finally got our free Taoism spread to Agincourt the same turn we completed two missionaries. We have a spare now - what to do with him? Gift to Mackoti, Suttree or Ichabod? Wait for our next city? Delete him due to unit costs? Commodore buit the AP - we have one christian city, so at least we'll get to see what resolutions he proposes... Right at the bottom Suttree revolted to Hereditary Rule. Does that have an implication for his intentions? Our sentries moved forwards to get a view of his land and his stack of eight workers is standing on a cottage. Odd. Still only the five spears in Barcelona, the chariot can still move SW-SE this turn to get sight of the floodplain farm and totally set our mind at rest unless you have another purpose for it? I think we need to assume he's attacking the north (or not attacking) and move our stack into Hastings and perhaps NE of Hastings to cover Jamestown.
I set the build in Jamestown to Heroic Epic, Nuremburg to be Forge and I microed Dunkirk a little oddly to finish the forge with exact hammers next turn - we need to not complete the forest chop next turn, perhaps put a turn into a cottage or workshop?
At Omdurman rather than the National Epic I set it to build a Library (as its the pre-req for National Epic ). With five chops (which disrupts worker plans somewhat - delays our next silk and requires the pig-roading worker to use two turns getting on a forest) the NE just about scrapes in in time for the GA (so long as William doesn't cancel our marble deal) so now might be an opportunity to consider putting the NE in Agincourt instead. Except that it won't be ready for the GA there by about two or three turns, so lets stick with Om. I've detailed Om until t155 in the spreadsheet if you'd care to look.
I've left the workers on the island unmoved due to the change of plans, also:
- At Light Brigade the worker could move to cottage/WS the forest for dunkirk where the other worker can do the same
- We need to confirm GA plans for Koniggratz before moving three workers there
- We have a missionary and galley to move. Why not combine the two and ship him to Ichabod?
- Scouting chariot can reveal more land around Barca
- Army moves
- Cancel deal with pindicooter?
Kind of as a check-list: Couple of small things + some stuff we already chatted about:
- No interest in ivory-to-silver deal with TBS I could live with silver-to-7gpt though
- Let's cancel spices-to-ivory with pindicooter and offer silver-to-wheat and/or stone
- If the growth in König can take -1 food, Gallipoli should give grass mine to König
- Let's move 2/3 bows from König one or two tiles NE. Otherwise they are too far to support Hastings etc.
- Let's save that Missionary for city 17
- I 1-pop whipped forge in BoP, 2 hammers "wasted", but not too bad.
- I changed builds in LB and Hastings, maximal waste is 4 hammers so it's not too bad if suttree is peaceful and we decide that we don't need more military there
- Check the build in N, I'm not totally convinced of forge, but I guess it's ok if we trust that ichabod is peaceful.
- Suggested worker micro and builds in Omdu are good.
- Workers near König could chop and cottage the pre-chopped jungle between Gallipoli and König.
I gave Gallipoli two of Agincourt's cottages as the scientist turns are more useful for Agincourt - Gallipoli is never producing a great person. Agincourt drops from +8 food to +4, but will still hit size 15 for the golden age (one bigger than it needs to be to run 10 specialists at -5 food).
I gave Cannae the horse tile to get the OR bonus and waste fewer hammers in BoP.
Nuremburg is on a Longbow now.
I think the worker stuff around Peterloo works, but it depends on when we get CS - eot143 is good - eot142 is better and we'll need to road the jungle instead of chopping it. Some wealth builds might be needed.
There was nothing on the gems tile so I didn't move the army NE of Hastings - I left it SW of the city. In fact Suttree played whilst I was moving stuff around and nothing appeared on the worrying tiles so I think we're probably okay next turn...
I cancelled our deal with Pindicooter and offered this instead. I'd be happy to get either of these +cash for silver or both for silver + sugar. While I was on TBS asked about a trade - sounds like he really needs happy - how about offering sugar for 5gpt?
(December 12th, 2013, 12:30)Old Harry Wrote: I gave Gallipoli two of Agincourt's cottages as the scientist turns are more useful for Agincourt - Gallipoli is never producing a great person. Agincourt drops from +8 food to +4, but will still hit size 15 for the golden age (one bigger than it needs to be to run 10 specialists at -5 food).
The switch is good but note that we do not want to grow to size 15 unless we can get the food box to 47-49/50. Otherwise it's harmful and we have less food to burn. We really want to start with full foodbox there when we launch our GA.
Quote:I gave Cannae the horse tile to get the OR bonus and waste fewer hammers in BoP.
Nuremburg is on a Longbow now.
Quote:I think the worker stuff around Peterloo works, but it depends on when we get CS - eot143 is good - eot142 is better and we'll need to road the jungle instead of chopping it. Some wealth builds might be needed.
Already eot143 should be pretty tight..
Quote:There was nothing on the gems tile so I didn't move the army NE of Hastings - I left it SW of the city. In fact Suttree played whilst I was moving stuff around and nothing appeared on the worrying tiles so I think we're probably okay next turn...
Quote:While I was on TBS asked about a trade - sounds like he really needs happy - how about offering sugar for 5gpt?
Really weird thing happened: We have now contact with Commodore, Lewwyn and Nakor despite the fact that we haven't met anyone of them. Is this somehow because of Apostolic Palace or is it a bug?
Strange things are afoot. We got asked if we wanted Commodore to be the Apostolic leader. Then Nakor offered open borders (we haven't met him yet) then we spotted that we'd contacted Commodore and Lewwyn too. Is this a bug or is that just how the Apostolic Palace works?
We offered Open Borders to Commodore and Azza for 7 and 5gpt respectively, hopefully Commodore doesn't realise he's now linked to others who will give them for free. (Azza isn't yet - no christian cities.) The other continent has been disapointingly peaceful (certain people may have learned a bit from PB8?) Pindicooter have declared on Comm twice, presumably to get galleys through his land, and have declared war on Nakor three times
We declared on Suttree to see, no scary units to see at all:
So I offered peace for 2gpt + map. We'll lose a chariot if he turns it down to look around first. YM started a golden age and revolted to Bureau, Caste and Free Religion. We'll keep an eye on Ichy with this chariot.
But you know, I'm open to stuff. 
Below is a small exercise I did so that I could make up my mind. The consequence is that if Harry can convince me that those GPs can be used wisely I'm in.
). With five chops (which disrupts worker plans somewhat - delays our next silk and requires the pig-roading worker to use two turns getting on a forest) the NE just about scrapes in in time for the GA (so long as William doesn't cancel our marble deal) so now might be an opportunity to consider putting the NE in Agincourt instead. Except that it won't be ready for the GA there by about two or three turns, so lets stick with Om. I've detailed Om until t155 in the spreadsheet if you'd care to look.
