[SPOILERS] Yossarian blames Caledorn

[YossarianLives]

DMOC
Yossarian --- how long is your NAP to SutOxy? EggHeads ahve one to turn 150 but SutOxy can get cuirassiers before we get cataphracts, and they could try and attack us to remove their biggest threat to win the game. Any chance they would accept longer NAPs? I'm considering asking one to t200 and I can try timing my golden ages to be late in the game
YossarianLives
We have a 20-turn cancellation policy, can be cancelled anytime
DMOC
I'm actually ready to concede to them, but I'm happy to keep doing my best for the rest of the game, and that pretty much entitles getting some long-term security from them so we could *theoretically* catch up at the end and use Golden Ages. Still far fetched.... I'll poke their interest

I don't think we could win the game, but I think we could have a lot of fun conquering BowAivo then Classical_Hero then backwards Rome and owning the entire south But those are super long-term goals and I don't think the game will last long enough for us to do all that.

[Cheater Hater]

Who do you think is going to win, and when is that going to happen? Why wouldn't we win the game if we conquer 3 civs (assuming we can do it)?

[YossarianLives]

SuttOxy has a 400 point lead over us and a 300 point lead over the three teams jockeying for 2nd place. They just finished their first MoM-extended GA. Their economy is way ahead of any other team. Arkipeller will try to attack them when their NAP expires on T150, but the tech (and skill) disparity is pretty large. We tried to get the Cat B4ndits involved also, but it looks like they sold us out to SuttOxy hence the story post calling DMOC/Teddy Chicken Little. Without the Cat B4ndits on our side, there is little that DMOC and I can do to slow down SuttOxy, so their lead will just keep growing. That's why DMOC wants to concede to them. I am very much against conceding at this point because there is still a lot that I want to do in this game, but if SuttOxy easily beat off Arki and keep a safe front with Cat B4ndits, it might be hard to convince the other teams to keep playing for our benefit.

If we are able to conquer all the backwards southern teams, that is leaving us open for an attack by the technologically advanced northern teams. Specifically, we would be vulnerable to SuttOxy and Cat B4ndits since Arki and DMOC are our allies. Yuufo/Bisons are just doing their own thing, but will hopefully get eaten up soon by DMOC.

[YossarianLives]

Just a quick update while I have a few minutes. It is T139 and we have our attacking stacks in position. BowAivo added an impi to their southern city, so I added an axe making the battle 4 axes and a spear against an axe and an impi. Their units don't have any promotions, while we have one or two axes with a promo available. They can see this southern stack but a barb city just appeared down there so hopefully they think that is our target. In the north, Bulawayo remains protected by a single warrior. We have 15 axes, a few spears and I think 8 cats that will all move out of the fog next turn. BowAivo planted another new city this turn so I am hopeful that we are catching them completely by surprise.

We got vision on SuttOxy's tech and they are three turns from gunpowder. They just completed the Taj and entered their second GA.

We'll get calendar in two turns, then I am thinking CS=>MC=> Machinery. With a few wealth builds, we're actually breaking even at 40%!

[Cheater Hater]

Hooray for war we actually want!
It seems like we have a sizable power advantage and that BowAivo isn't expecting us in the slightest. How much do you think you can/want to take from BowAivo in this stage of the war, and how quickly do you think you can accomplish that?

[Old Harry]

Yeah, that's a good question - where to stop... it'd be nice to take their whole territory, but if they whip well I don't think you have enough units. Can you split them in half, meaning you can pick them off bit by bit?

Most important thing is to preserve some cats until you can hit a decent stack with them. And for your gains to be defensible...

[YossarianLives]

Right, we don't have enough troops to take all their cities at this moment. Not sure if we should focus on a troop build-up to go ahead and try to finish them off now, or just take what we can get at the moment, and then come back to this again with a bigger tech/mfg lead later on. Part of my strategy is relying on BowAivo defending poorly, so we'll see how that pans out.

This is what I want to take:


The X's we should get in the next couple turns no problem. The ?'s are likely, but not guaranteed. The double-?'s are less likely unless I start streaming in reinforcements right away, but possible depending on how badly BowAivo defends.

The Northern Front:


If they don't reinforce Bulawayo, I will take it with Seaine to get that next promotion. I want to take kwaD with as few troops as possible. If the garrison does not change, I think that will mean 1 cat, 1 spear and 4-5 axes. That will leave me with 10-11 axes, 7 cats and a spear that can continue on to uMgung. I will leave a single axe and spear in Bulawayo as I move forward. The axe in Gov't Shutdown will complete next turn to help reinforce Bulawayo. Also, I'll send any extra axes that don't die attacking kwaD back down to defend the more important city of Bulawayo.

The Southern Front:


I panicked a bit when I saw how low my odds are here. So I actually ran some worldbuilder tests! What I found is that promoting the one axe to CR gives me 12.2% odds. As long as I get at least one hit on the defending axe, the next two can clean it up almost every time. I got at least that one hit in every test I ran, so I feel pretty comfortable. If for whatever reason BowAivo's axe defends flawlessly, I will need to call off this attack, but I don't think that will happen. I will also move my lone chariot down to this front instead of the northern front to help clean up if necessary.

Here is my first major mistake in this war. I should have roaded the tile south of the hill instead of the one north of the hill. That would have let me move my troops onto BowAivo's hill this turn to capture their worker and get the defense bonus Anyway, that worker won't be able to escape so they'll need to delete it or else I will capture it when I take the city next turn. Also, what the heck is the worker doing roading that hill instead of farming the corn?

Power graph:


Nothing yet from BowAivo. They played T140 in 3 minutes without a whip, so either they didn't notice my southern stack, or they didn't think it was going to move in against them. Let's see what they do when they log in next turn and see they've been attacked.

Also, I haven't been able to locate the new city BowAivo planted last turn. I am currently thinking it is here:

[Cheater Hater]

Are you planning to capture all those cities, or do you want to raze some?
It's good to know that I still can ask good questions, even when I have my own game to worry about

[Old Harry]

I have a feeling that extra units could get you a lot more benefit than the infra...

[YossarianLives]

Turn 141

BowAivo researched a classical tech and grew 1 pop (I think), then whipped Vandal and Ulundi for 3 pop, Nobambo and Alcatraz for 2 pop, and Bulawayo or uMgung for 1. They also retreated in the north.









I was very pleasantly surprised to see that not only can I capture a terrace to get instant culture into a city, but that it even gets the double-culture bonus for being built so long I proceeded to attack BowAivo's retreating axe with a shock axe, which lost at some 70% odds. I cleaned up with a C1 axe that will promote next turn. Here's how things ended up:



I know what's in the fog because

Yossarian: our scouting chariot sees 1 warrior defending uMgung, and in he sees 2 impis, 2 chariots and 3 axes defending Nobomba

Very useful information there

In the south, they kept their defenders in place, even gave a C1 promo to their impi.



My first axe got a single hit in, the second axe redlined their axe, the third axe took out their impi, and the fourth axe captured the city. We then moved our chariot in to take that worker that had been roading the hill.



So this is basically what has happened this turn:

Are you planning to capture all those cities, or do you want to raze some?
It's good to know that I still can ask good questions, even when I have my own game to worry about

Good question. Here's the overview of BowAivo's core:



The line is culture from Alcatraz / Cosa Nostra. I think the correct play is to move SW (1) next turn, then raze umGung on T143. Most likely they whipped an axe there this turn, so I will probably want to use a couple cats to bombard down the defenses, and it will probably take a few axes to take the city. The rest of the stack can move NW (7) to threaten Nobambo, which I hope to keep if I can take it with enough units. Then I will probably need to consolidate there for a bit while my new units come into play.

I have a feeling that extra units could get you a lot more benefit than the infra...

Ok, ok, you're right.



I switched a few cities onto units now, and performed a couple whips that will overflow into units. They'll be able to join the fight soon.

Power (for the first time all game we have everyone's graphs!)