[SPOILERS] Turning in the widening gyre: Thoth has another go at BTS

[Mardoc]

(since we're rolling duplicates we only need 7 picks each at most)

I don't think this is quite right. After all your foes are set, twelve items will be gone, and since Picked Leader of the Unpicked Civ is still a strike, you technically need 13 unrepeated combos to be certain of getting a legal choice.

Of course it probably doesn't matter, the odds are astronomical that you'd need more than 7. Unless you tempt fate

[Thoth]

For reference:

Technology: Base cost: Adjusted cost:
TECH_FISHING: 40 59
TECH_HUNTING: 40 59
TECH_MYSTICISM: 50 74
TECH_MINING: 50 74
TECH_PRIESTHOOD: 60 89
TECH_THE_WHEEL: 60 89
TECH_AGRICULTURE: 60 89
TECH_ARCHERY: 60 89
TECH_MEDITATION: 80 119
TECH_POTTERY: 80 119
TECH_MASONRY: 80 119
TECH_POLYTHEISM: 100 149
TECH_SAILING: 100 149
TECH_ANIMAL_HUSBANDRY: 100 149
TECH_MONOTHEISM: 120 179
TECH_WRITING: 120 179
TECH_BRONZE_WORKING: 120 179

Worker will take 10 turns for non-expansive leaders working the Deer. Expansive leaders get no bonus working the deer and the FPH is identical to the deer with expansive bonus.

AG will take 9 turns out of the gate at 10 beakers/turn (8 from palace, 1 from base tile, 1 from "you have a city" beaker) with 1 beaker overflow. So Ag as first tech still allows farm first/camp second/pasture 3rd so long as Hunting and AH can be teched in time. AH will need to be in by t21. AG/AH works so long as Hunting is a start tech. Wheel is desirable by t20 to get a worker turn into a road while the worker transits to the cows. If wheel isn't available I won't be too fussed.
Hunting/mining gets bw ~t33.

Hunting 1st takes 6 turns for an AG/Wheel civ. AH done t17. mining ~t23, bwt36.
AH first (AG/Hunting start) comes in at t11, giving mining t18ish, bw t31ish.

AG/Wheel is slowest to bronze, but is ahead in total beakers (as expected).
AG/Hunting has fastest AH and Bronze.

[Thoth]

(since we're rolling duplicates we only need 7 picks each at most)

I don't think this is quite right. After all your foes are set, twelve items will be gone, and since Picked Leader of the Unpicked Civ is still a strike, you technically need 13 unrepeated combos to be certain of getting a legal choice.

Of course it probably doesn't matter, the odds are astronomical that you'd need more than 7. Unless you tempt fate

Assuming we all overlap on all picks, 6/7 will not get their choice in the first round. 1/7 will get his choice.
2nd round 5/6 don't get their picks, 1/6 does.
ect, ect.

[Thoth]

So I'm leaning towards something like this: (NOT A FINAL PICK LIST!!)

1) Hatty of Zulu
2) Ramses of France
3) Louis of Persia
4) Washington of Mongolia
5) Brennus of Ethiopia

I suspect everything after Washington is redundant.

[Mardoc]

But you can overlap with someone who's already picked. For example:

First round, Commodore gets Pacal of India. You put Pacal of Inca, you lose the roll, don't get anything.

Second round you put Darius of India. You still don't get your choice. If everyone put Darius of India, no one gets a leader in the second round.

Could continue with more of your bans, but hopefully the pattern is clear and I can go to bed.

[Thoth]

16 hpt at size 6 with 7 forests suggests Judaism + Mids for Ramses. Louis could delay the relegions in favour of Math.

Hmmmm......think I'm gonna turn my brain off and go play some MOO2.

[Thoth]

I'll go with this:

1) Hatty of Zulu
2) Ramses of France
3) Louis of Ottomans
4) Washington of Mongolia
5) Brennus of Ethiopia
6) Peter of Babylon
7) Asoka of Persia
8) Zara of Russia

[Thoth]

Hmmmm......think I'm gonna turn my brain off and go play some MOO2. nod

Should have left more of the brain on.

[Thoth]

I'll go with this:

1) Hatty of Zulu
2) Ramses of France
3) Louis of Ottomans
4) Washington of Mongolia
5) Brennus of Ethiopia
6) Joao Peter of Babylon
7) Asoka of Persia
8) Zara of Russia

Damnit. Forgot about Joao. Slot him instead of Pete.

And I may want to swap Joao and Louis around. grf. I'm not supposed to have to think on weekends.

[Thoth]

ffs.

France is banned.