Airstrip One Palace Court - No Players!

[Krill]

Actually...Broker has the army to take out most of Kodiis' land, and hasn't really gained anything from the war yet, all he has done is maybe burn Kodiis' cap to the ground. Just as DSP needs land to expand into to maintain his position in the game. Right now it's actually in DSPs' and Shadys' best interests that regoarrarr and Exploit both get knocked down, instead of regoarrarr just sidesteping the entire problem. Broker also doesn't really lose out by Exploit and regoarrarr both going at it and knocking themselves out.

The other issue is that Exploit could easily get 100 rifles via drafting if he really had to, using the culture slider if needed, and tech off free specialists. That is not something that you want to contend with, if you are attacking.

I don't think now is a great time or an all on Exploit dog pile. Broker and DSP need more time to set themselves up as pre-eminent powers, Lins have the oppurtunity to take some of sunrises land for themselves and still take some of Exploits in a dogpile later. Munro/Rome and Imhotep might have a reason to turn on Exploit, but they both probably know they won't be left alone to capitalise on newly gained lands. Shady knows that regoarrarr is going to come for him at some point as well, so it's a toss up for him about which is better.

The real question is though, if the other teams consider the before/after situation, and how the alliances are going to fall. I'd be pretty sure that for those in the RA, and some of those in the other alliance, it's not yet time to abandon Exploit. We'll have to wait to see what Broker says in his thread first of all...

How does everyone else think the situation would be after a great Exploit war?

[Krill]

DP...but not like there is anything that can be done about that.

Just done a quick comparison of Exploit and regoarrarr.

Cities: Exploit: 25, max 26.
regoarrarr: 19, max of 25 if he expanded into current land available.


Science rate: Exploit: 602bpt max at -251gpt, 401bpt at -21gpt/60%, 362bpt at +36gpt/50%
regoarrarr: 506bpt max, -262gpt, maybe 200 @ breakeven (20-30%)


Population: Exploit: 187 pop, 16 draftable cities (and that's after drafting 15 rifles in 3 turns...)
regoarrarr: 114 pop, 10 draftable cities
(DSP: about 100, 7 draftable cities)


Espionage: Exploit: 30ept w/o spec, 80ept w/specs at max
Regoarrarr: 7ept, 12ept w/specs (1 courthouse)

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My conclusion would be that the Incan empire is by far the most developed of all the civs in the game (that pop figure is just scary, for one). The only problem is, if he saves gold for a bit (and he is), and he finds out about the impending attack, he has 13 turns before it can start unles Lins break the NAP (or regoarrarr is suicidal).

All Exploit has to do to play safe is research to Artillery. It's 19,800 adjusted beakers away, so if he played it smart, he could probably get Steel in 5, and use cannons and a billion rifles to defend with at first (and the east shouldn't really be in that much danger), in fact, Lins are in danger of losing their front cities if they aren't careful.

Then he techs SM once that is spread around (600 base bpt = 1000+, a 4 turn tech if it gets spread around), leaving him with a 2*6,000 beaker techs in Physics and then artillery. Physics gives him airships for massive LoS advantages, and then artillery means he has the second best siege unit in the game, and Anti tank units. So he could play defense for so long that the only way to kill him is a massive air, except he can get SAM infantry on the next tech, Rocketry.

Sure, not like Exploit can sit there and say he is still going to win the game, but he can play defense (in an 8v3, which is insane).

The weird thing is though, regoarrarr has no real reason to want to see Exploit get cut down to size: regoarrarr wants to grow, and then take out Imhotep for even more land, That'll make him stronger/larger than Exploit, and still part of a teching alliance. Although he would also have to be careful of a dogpile, because he is much more open to attack via Shady, and Shady is also friends with DSP, regoarrarrs second rival...

DSP can still gain land by taking it from Munro, but Exploit has rifles heading for Munros' capital, and in numbers that make it seem that DSP alone won't be able to do much about it. But once Kodii and Broker head up there...Munro is going to lose a few cities, it all depends if he can hold the choke point to the east of his capital. If he can, then it's going to be a very stagnant game and then a huge eruption as alliances change and someone dies.

TBH, the person that you have to feel sorry for the most in this is Munro. He has gotten backstabbed twice now, once by dsp/Shady/mhk (and shafted out of lost techs), and once again by Broker and Lins. The only 3 people who haven't broken any deals so far have been Romans, Zulu and Incans. Which is ironic, considering that alot of players said that this game wouldn't be as cut throat as MP

[Spronz]

TBH, the person that you have to feel sorry for the most in this is Munro. He has gotten backstabbed twice now, once by dsp/Shady/mhk (and shafted out of lost techs), and once again by Broker and Lins. The only 3 people who haven't broken any deals so far have been Romans, Zulu and Incans. Which is ironic, considering that alot of players said that this game wouldn't be as cut throat as MP

So it's the Loyalists vs the Backstabbers now? Yeah it's hard not feel sorry for Munro currently, every time things seem to start going well for him since taking over he finds a new knife in his back.

As to the coming war I'd say the only hope for Exploit is that the Backstabber alliance falls apart due to the temptation of so many backs to plant knives into now. He may be able to hold off for a while, maybe even do some bit of damage at the start, but it's going to be largely defensive with so many opponents and those opponents will be able to just contain him and build up. Exploit really can't attack as it would just expand the borders he has to defend and cost him too much. But if he doesn't then his enemies can just grow and his one real ally (Munro) could be worn away.

As to hoping the other team splits, well that certainly will happen but then it's only likely to happen when Exploit is taken down to size so isn't of that much help to him. As long as he's big and in the lead people will probably stay against him. Maybe if Regoarrarr, DSP or one of the others grows enough to rival him then it may split.

I don't think Regoarrarr is in a very strong position diplomatically though. Would be very surprised if he pulled off the win in this game because as it stands I don't think he has any close allies left. The only person in a split that he could really count on would be Sunrise but that's still not a certainty.

[Krill]

So it's the Loyalists vs the Backstabbers now? Yeah it's hard not feel sorry for Munro currently, every time things seem to start going well for him since taking over he finds a new knife in his back.

It's the Loyalists v. Opportunists & Backstabbers. Probably the worst combination possibly for working together as allies.

I hope Lins do give Exploit his tech though, because that massively helps Lins reputation wrt backstabbing, but it effectively means Exploit is only 15.6k beakers from Artillery and is in a strong enough position to weather any attack on him. Exploit could feasibly be the first civ to physics if he really pushed by building wealth/research and going max science (ie, 10 turns).

I asked regoarrarr how he intends to win, and he said he doesn't actually know. Domination/conquest is effectively out, diplomatic/AP would be total cheese, nukes really hurt any SS chance unless you finish every single part in one turn and have the largest army to defend with for 10 turns, and culture is even easier to see. This game probably could go to time.

[Spronz]

Well Exploit's new posts sure add an interesting twist for sure.

[Sullla]

The weird thing is though, regoarrarr has no real reason to want to see Exploit get cut down to size: regoarrarr wants to grow, and then take out Imhotep for even more land, That'll make him stronger/larger than Exploit, and still part of a teching alliance. Although he would also have to be careful of a dogpile, because he is much more open to attack via Shady, and Shady is also friends with DSP, regoarrarrs second rival...

You mean aside from the fact that Exploit has repeatedly said that his only goal in this game is to destroy regoarrarr? I think I'd want someone who says they will never stop fighting me cut down to size.

[Krill]

Depending on how long it takes each team to position troops, Exploit shouldn't have any major losses (provided he knows what he is doing with the warfare). This is good for regoarrarr because he gets to grow as large as Exploit land and city wise, but still gets the teching alliance. The sooner Exploit gets cut down, the sooner regoarrarr is going to be the #1 target, and the less of a lead regoarrarr can build up in that amount of time. Right now neither team is that great a threat to each other.

However, due to no tech brokering, Exploit cannot be brought back up to speed to help hammer regoarrarr later on in the game. Once regoarrarr has gotten to tanks and arty, he can easily play defense against anything Exploit can throw at him. But regoarrarr needs time to get to those techs, probably take 30-40 turns depending on teching ability (Lins fund Broker, sunrise funds regoarrarr, shady and Kodii fund DSP).

The other problem is that Imhotep is inline to get split between Shady and regoarrarr, if Exploit is stuck defending himself. As regoarrarr can't really risk growing larger than Exploit, Imhotep is safe from regoarrarr, but not from Shady. regoarrarr doesn't want his southern neighbour being strong enough to take him on 1v1, especially not with DSP being almost as strong as regoarrarr.

Short term, containing Exploit is the best thing that can happen for regoarrarr, but long term he needs someone to divert others attentions That's why I think Broker made a bad decision to swap over; Exploit probably was going to drastically weaken himself and regoarrarr so Broker could have absorbed Kodiis' land and then taken out DSP along with Munro; do that, and Broker is up along the front runners along with the Lins as a solid ally.

[novice]

Based upon the backlog of emails on that game, it is my impression that Munro gets easily offended and when that happens he focuses exclusively on revenge. The emails from that game were rather heated at time.

This from the nation of Destroy Rego .

Kudos to Regoarrar for his diplomacy efforts. I don't understand how he's able to make 9 teams do his bidding. Shadyforces thoughts were interesting. I guess Rego's existing alliance partners had little to lose by going along with the dogpile, but Broker's and Lins' reasoning is hard to follow.

[Whosit]

I've been very inconsistent with tracking this game, so bear with my silly remarks.

The recent diplomatic changes are interesting. I have to agree with those who've pegged Exploit for using Big Stick diplomacy--he's very quick to point an accusing finger, throws his weight around, and paints himself as the victim when things don't go his way. But I really can't believe he's pulling out the old "if you don't help me, I'll make sure this other guy wins!" routine. If you're going down, go down with some dignity. Or, you know, make some concessions to your allies because it's the smart thing to do in the long-run.

[Krill]

I've been very inconsistent with tracking this game, so bear with my silly remarks.

The recent diplomatic changes are interesting. I have to agree with those who've pegged Exploit for using Big Stick diplomacy--he's very quick to point an accusing finger, throws his weight around, and paints himself as the victim when things don't go his way. But I really can't believe he's pulling out the old "if you don't help me, I'll make sure this other guy wins!" routine. If you're going down, go down with some dignity. Or, you know, make some concessions to your allies because it's the smart thing to do in the long-run.

I 100% disagree. The threat is a solid diplomatic deterrent stoping anyone from simply dogpiling without any thoughts as per the consequences of their actions: anyone surviving is going to be greatly weakened compared to the superstate of regoarrarr, and not even a quick strike is going to change anything if Exploit gifts his army. So less people are going to try whole heartedly to take down Exploit, to the extent that probably only the Lins, sunrise and regoarrarr are going to attack Exploit, and that is easy to defend against with so many rifles and cannons.

Exploit couldn't give any consessions short of literally ceding land that he already settled/captured from the Lins (and that is never an option unless the time it buys you is seriously worth it, which it can be but you need to think long and hard about it). He already promised to give the majority of hte land captured from sunrise (including both shrines) to the Lins. He was also teching for the alliance. He was about to draft down all of his cities to take out regoarrarr and damage his own economy (thus strengthening everyone compared to him). If you read Exploits' email to the alliance, you'll see everything stated there, and Broker commented that he didn't really have any disagreements with that: he decided to go with the dogpile because he feared Exploit was too powerful (and in my opinion he is right, Exploit is too powerful, too powerful to be taken don by a single front war).

If you also read Brokers thread, you'll see that he doesn't think Exploit is going to die, instead he'll only be crippled, and this reinforces the effect of the threat: Broker has the choice of a powerful Exploit and a regoarrarr counterbalance, or an uberpowerful regoarrarr, the outcome that he wants such as a crippled Exploit isn't going to occur. If Munro leaves Exploit (basically it requires peace between Munro and dsp/Dler, which isn't going to happen) then Exploit has it much harder, but provided that Munro sticks with Exploit, Exploit has enough leverage to survive this alliance alteration with only minimal strain and still be able to position himself for later.