Progress of sorts:
I've accepted Exploit's vassalage offer. Exploit waives a long-standing 5 cannon debt I owe him (part of an old settling agreement I had with Yaz). He also sends me military assistance against dsp / Kodii and will probably try to negotiate a peace deal with them as well. (With Exploit's friend taking over for Kodii this might even be possible).
Obviously the best case scenario all round would be if he can get Dler to turn those stacks on dsp instead of me and it'd be a good chance for Dler to get Kodii's civ back in the game too as (with Broker's backing me as well) I'm probably in a better position to defend anyway than dsp. That's wildly optimistic but I've pointed out the logic of it to Exploit and it's probably a good play for Dler too. Might just depend on whether Dler feels any moral obligation to honour Kodii's former allegience. (Not that they've served Kodii particularly well mind you... dsp basically just left Kodii to his fate while trying unsuccessfully to pursue his own agenda against me).
Meanwhile, I've basically thrown my lot in with Broker and Lins (who Broker tells me are a solid ally). That'll be our core tech trading bloc and we'll keep up by self research and one-off tech trades with whichever other mini-groups emerge. No more mega alliances. The last one (anti-Exploit) doesn't even seem to have made it a whole turn!
Obviously with tech brokering off we'll have to be careful about holding the line. Any tech traded to one of us must be traded to all, otherwise we end up having to self-research it in the end anyway. That'll seriously limit our trading partners since there are so many local rivalries anyway. (Exploit won't trade with Broker now; dsp/shady probably won't ever trade with me). Elkad has no economy left anyway. Rego / Sunrise would be a good fit if they separate from dsp/shady but dsp will be an obstacle to trade if not...
So it might just be the 3 of us for now. With Exploit, keeping up with rego / dsp / shady could be tough though in that scenario if they stick together (and it's a big if). Our long term tech prospects probably rest on splitting rego from dsp / shady, or reconciling with Exploit.
Anyway, there should be a lot more dust to settle over the next few days. Once we get another few turns in, things will probably look completely different again...