New FFH2 PBEM?

[Tasunke]

As far as unrestricted leaders go (which isn't this game) but Ive always been interested in trying out Varn Gosam of the Sidar

You can do some VERY powerful things with that combination. Let's just say I wouldn't want to go up against that...


Regards,
Northstar

Hey northstar .... would you be interested in some ... Turn Timer, real time, casual laid back matches with plenty of AI in them? Might be fun sometime ^_^

[Northstar1989]

Turn Timer

I'm not a fan of turn-timers. OR real-time Civ IV, for that matter. I like having plenty of time to think. A casual PBEM where we beat up on AI could always be fun- but I've got a lot of other games on my hands right now. Between my first 3 games of the tournament, this, and PBEM 39, I'll soon be in 5 games...

Oh yeah, and did I mention the Bonus Games for the tournament? I don't think they count for anything, but it might be nice to give some of those a whirl when I get the chance...


Regards,
Northstar

[Tasunke]

Oh no, I didnt mean this week I just y in general ... and as far as Turn Timer goes ... thats why I say casual, b/c you can make as many mistakes in a turn timer game as you want, just so long as you play quickly enough and have a decent idea of what your doing. I mean, obviously a competitive game w/ turn timer can be intense, but in some ways real time w/ turn timer can be a bit more fun during warfare, even vs a human.

For some reason the nature of Turn Timer based MP battles means that people are more focused on the 'one war to win them all' and Im not sure why .. but in a turn timer game at least, I've noticed that some humans aren't a threat until provoked, while others gun straight for you ... ergo the difference between casual and competitive imho ... but there are other ways to be competitive, like racing for wonders, fighting over who gets Acheron, etc etc.

The nice thing about real time w/ Turn timer is that its over in just a few hours.

[Kragroth]

General Question here, who are we still waiting for picks from?

[Bobchillingworth]

Saurman and Ellimist.

[Bobchillingworth]

Okay. Random.org gave me Tasunke as the first person in the turn order, so working from there we ended up with:


1. Tasunke, as Flauros [0100-0300 GMT]

2. Saruman, as Tebyrn [0100-0400 GMT]

3. Ellimist, as Valledia [0100-0530 GMT]

4. Kragroth, as Jonas [1200-1600 GMT]

5. North, as Perpy [2300-0100 GMT]


I'll try to have the map ready for Dave to review it by the end of the weekend.

[Northstar1989]

Last in the turn-order AGAIN???

This is really starting to get on my nerves...

Not to mention the chances of this kind of luck are becoming increasingly small (1 in 20 for the turn-order picks, plus 1 in 11 for the initial tournament disadvantage before re-shuffle --> 1 in 220 overall chance) Either RNG-esus loves me or hates me, I can't decide which...

I guess I'll find out soon- because Perpy is ALL about 'dat luck! I'll be praying... (though not to the RNG)


Regards,
Northstar

[Ellimist]

Two things, Northstar:

• Last is not a disadvantage. If offered the choice between 2nd/3rd/4th or 5th, I'd choose 5th every time in a five player game. Last gets to see the barbarians move and you also get to see where barbarian heroes spawn. In addition, last is also the person who sees the most up-to-date graphs data.
• I think your calculation of the odds is a bit faulty. If you rolled a six sided die 5 times, you are just as unlikely to get 1-2-3-4-5 as you are to get 1-1-1-1-1 or 4-2-2-6-3. Improbable things happen.

[Northstar1989]

Two things, Northstar:

• Last is not a disadvantage. If offered the choice between 2nd/3rd/4th or 5th, I'd choose 5th every time in a five player game. Last gets to see the barbarians move and you also get to see where barbarian heroes spawn. In addition, last is also the person who sees the most up-to-date graphs data.

I disagree. And most "up-to-date" is a relative term. The graphs you are looking at are ALWAYS the most up-to-date. Honestly, that's just a bunch of false logic for why there's an advantage to going last. It's not like anybody ever seriously uses Hidden Nationality units in Multiplayer...

I think your calculation of the odds is a bit faulty. If you rolled a six sided die 5 times, you are just as unlikely to get 1-2-3-4-5 as you are to get 1-1-1-1-1 or 4-2-2-6-3. Improbable things happen.

My math is correct Ellmist.

There are 5 equally-probably outcomes to the die roll. Getting the last slot is only a 1 in 5 chance.

As for the overall statistical patterns, you're talking to a scientist. It was my *JOB* to analyze this kind of stuff...

Getting 1-2-3-4-5 and 1-1-1-1-1 are equally likely, but that's not what we're looking at. We're looking at the SUM of the values. Let's say higher #'s are better. The odds of getting straight 1's 3 times in a row is only:

1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/216

Whereas the odds of getting a better sum than straight 1's is 215/216

The highest probability is of getting an average value of 3.5 over a large # of rolls. If you get straight 1's every time, that's INCREDIBLY unlikely. So is any other particular combination of rolls, but a 1-2-3 and a 3-2-1 roll are equivalent, whereas a 1-1-1 roll has NO other equivalent permutations...


So, based on whether you think coming last (in turn-order and in tournament picks: although NOBODY in their right mind would argue that the 2nd slot in the tournament was an advantage) is a good thing or a bad thing, I'm either VERY lucky, or VERY unlucky...


Regards,
Northstar

[Northstar1989]

Ellmist,

I just wanted to give you an example of what I was talking about to reinforce what I was saying about the statistics...

In my research, we looked at levels of scar tissue formation in Mouse hearts in response to a specific Stem Cell treatment for Muscular Dystrophy we were working on...

Scar tissue is comprised mainly of Fibroblasts, and the chance of any individual cell turning into a Fibroblast even under normal conditions is actually fairly high...

So if we look at a heart, and there are a few Fibroblasts here and there, it's no big issue.

HOWEVER, if we look at a Mouse heart and the ENTIRE tissue is riddled full of Fibroblasts, we know something weird is going on there...


And don't go thinking it's just another case of scientists seeing what they want to see- my data turned up the hardest kind of result, NEGATIVE results- in the end we found there was absolutely no increase in Fibroblast formation even though that was what we were hoping to see, as it would have given us some insight into why the Stem Cell treatment was actually killing some of the mice...


Regards,
Northstar