[Spoilers] Dreylin tries to take over the World ... casually?

[Dreylin]

Note Gawdzak is showing 3t to Constitution, which I have to conclude is preparation for a Statue of Liberty play. Since he has >30 cities on his continent, that would likely be game over for the rest of us as it would just add hugely to his research advantage. So even though I only have 16 cities on my home continent, I probably have to make a play for it as well.

Techwise, it's less than 3t from scratch when I checked last turn. With research at 100%, I should get enough overflow from Rifling to be able to finish it in 2t - so EoT202. I doubt that Gawdzak can beat that, though he may be able to match it.

If the turn hasn't rolled by tonight (which is pretty unlikely), I'll need to go back in and identify which city can get the max hammers to build it (probably Weed), see what I can do about an overflow series, and then whether reconfiguring any tiles will help.

Putting this here for reference:
500 + 20 * city size

Of course Gawdzak has one as well and has IND to boot - at least SoL has a multiplier so that's not as much of a deal.

I don't know that I can beat him there, but maybe I can force a GEng coinflip, or at minimum force him to spend his to complete it.

[Old Harry]

So what are everyone's odds here? Who still has a chance?

[Dreylin]

So what are everyone's odds here? Who still has a chance?

I think the game is Gawdzak's to lose now (and I don't think he will). He'd played himself into a strong tech & land lead, and is now cashing some of that in (in terms of adding costs blunting tech momentum) to take another chunk of territory virtually unopposed. If you'd asked me 5-10t ago, I'd have probably said 50/40/10 for Gawdzak/Ichabod/Me (or maybe 50/35/15 if I was feeling secure that turn), but the campaign against Mr. Cairo has turned into a disaster for Ichabod.

There are a couple of reasons for that I think; firstly his army is entirely dependent on Cataphracts, Trebuchets, with a scattering of Crosbows in there for defense. I don't understand 100% Trebs verses a mix of Trebs & Cats, but the weakness has been on the lack of defensive units to hold the captures and maintain his existing borders. He also missed/didn't take the chance to wipe Mr. Cairo's stack, and then he got his huge single stack of Cataphracts stuck in Mr. Cairo's culture and allowed him to flank him with his stacks and counter-attack into Ichabod's relatively undefended (ex-Jowy) territory. I haven't been in the game this turn, but CivStats shows 4 Ichabod cities captured and probably burnt this turn - added to the 2 captured Aztec cities (& one replant) that he razed on previous turns. 

I think his larger error was Strategic though; while Mr. Cairo's overseas holdings & ex-Aztec lands might have seemed to offer Ichabod a more cost-effective route to gaining territory, it all-but guaranteed Gawdzak an easy take-over of Mr. Cairo's core since it stranded Mr. C's main army over in Aztecia. So Ichabod's taken the pain and Gawdzak's reaped the rewards. It would have been much better for him to take the harder(?) path into Molach (as I thought he was going to), where Gawdzak would have been unlikely to get involved and Ichabod would reap rewards for his pain. Then Gawdzak would have likely turned to Nyles (probably over me ) for territorial expansion and had to at least face an entire (if outdated) army.

At this point, I'm not sure if I'd put Ichabod's chances any higher than my own; maybe 70/15/15 or even 80/10/10. If I'm Gawdzak, I'd probably be looking at expanding the front with Ichabod from the North of Mr. Cairo's land to raid straight across the channel separating them - if he can raze a couple of Ichabod's old core ports, he strengthens his grip on the Ocean and could cripple Ichabod's chance to engage in a dogpile against him - which now is really the only way we could bring him back to the pack and give anyone else a chance to win.

Basically, if Ichabod's done, then the game is over IMO - explicitly, if Ichabod is at the point of conceding, then I don't see a route for the rest of us to challenge Gawdzak and I'd concede at that point also.

Other than the "top 3"; Mr. Cairo is on his way out (but I think probably having a lot of fun as he goes), Yuri is crippled (sorry), Nyles & Molach are too far behind technologically to challenge and would probably be conquered soon if the game proceeds. That leaves AT, who is only a step behind technologically and is too spiky to be profitably conquered, but hasn't got enough of a tech lead on his neighbours to make any gains himself. Outside Gawdzak, Mr. Cairo & myself, I'm not convinced that any of the others (possibly including Ichabod) are putting enough into the game to make / take an opportunity to change the outcome.

So I'm going to see what I can do about the Statue, and start to look for any other way I can dent Gawdzak - currently low-risk, but I probably need to think riskier.

But again, if Ichabod is ready to concede, then I'd join him in declaring Gawdzak the winner and releasing the others from their responsibilities.

[Dreylin]

t199 -

Yep, 3 Ichabod cities razed by Mr. Cairo & 1 recaptured. Looks like Ichabod prioritised stuffing the ones he wanted to keep last turn. I doubt we'll see any more fall though, as he's starting to get rifles out and Mr. Cairo's forces are wearing thin. There's opportunity here for me certainly, but if I start fighting Ichabod that just hands the game to Gawdzak on a plate. Maybe I should step in against Mr. Cairo, but he's still paying back the loan and also supplies me with Incense which is important in a couple of places. Of course I'll lose that soon enough anyway...

So I kept my growing stack in the same spot in borders and am letting this play out for now. I did send Ichabod a Fish-Fish deal to try and indicate my wish for Peace, and a Furs-Silver trade to help me replace the soon to be lost Incense. (It's actually my last Furs, but if the trade goes through I'll cancel the Furs-Spices deal I have with Nyles for a net gain with Forge).

Looking in more detail at the Statue, I determined that the correct build site is actually Maui Wowie rather than Weed. I can get ~50 raw hammers per turn from my Moai, and while I could certainly get more hammers in the cap if I was prepared to Workshop over some Towns, I also gimp quite a few of the surrounding cities by reclaiming tiles. Also, Maui Wowie has 3 sizes over Weed, translating to a better rush. Ding ex-BRick Cap would actually be the objectively best hammer spot to build it, but that's on Gawdzak's continent and wouldn't help me enough either. I'll set up a small overflow chain, but it won't be a huge head start.

Also, getting Democracy in 2t after Riflling looks to be impossible without some serious build Research ... and I'm not even sure it would be even with that. I'll play with it next turn, but the back-up will be to build up overflow by 1t Theology to hide tech target, after which I can confirm what Gawdzak's next target is and will be able to get in 2t after that.

[Dreylin]

t200 - AKA: The end of Time.

Turns out that Democracy in 2t is simplicity itself.




Although I'd probably knock off one build to sandbag a bit at 3t. Not that Gawdzak probably isn't aiming to 2t it himself:


Here's what I could do for overflow:


The last Farm would be converted next turn, and the Merchant & pop growth would both be Priests. Probably wouldn't be enough to beat Gawdzak outright, but if he wasn't expecting to have competition then maybe I could have earned a coinflip.

Anyway, GG to Gawdzak!