[PB36 Spoilers] GermanJoey's Meltdown Betting Pool

[GermanJoey]

Ok, now we're starting with Missionaries, so I guess Spi is back on the table, which is nice.

that narrows us down to, in no particular order:

Victoria of Russia
Justinian of Mongolia
Gandhi of China
Roosevelt of the Dutch
Hammurabi of HRE
Montezuma of France

someone put in a ban for Elizabeth of Portugal for some reason, but hopefully it is Roosevelt who gets banned. gotta think some more on what particular plays Phi has (what bulbs will I want and when, what wonders will I want to rush?) and what Ind has. (how fast will I want forges, and what wonders will I want that I think won't be Phi-rushed?)

apparently the MoM won't be banned, so there might be something for Gandhi...

[Thoth]

What does religion have to do with the value of Spiritual?

[greenline]

What does religion have to do with the value of Spiritual?

Cheap temples

[Thoth]

[GermanJoey]

Well, like, there's that whole civic column that requires a state religion. It's not like I'd be jumping out of HR or Bureau all that often for this kinda game.

[GermanJoey]

And now we get two missionaries, of two different religions I guess? Is that any better than one missionary of one religion?

I have not had time to play any sims at all, or even think about my pick. And it looks like OT4E is now protesting the idea of bans at all? So I guess Rosey is on the table and I should probably put him first pick, so that I can feel justified melting down later when I lose the coin toss for him and then get EIMs all up in my business. I can't believe that Liz got two ban votes... are people really that worried about a super-oxford city when we haven't even seen starting screenshots?

Who next? Can't see CKN being good here, but Gandhi probably will be. Justinian of super-Knights would be really fun, but then the question is whether I think the first conquest phase will be around Knight-era or later than that, roundabouts Cuirs or so. I'm really not sure. Mack made super Knights work in the Ren era game, so they should be legit here, right? But then those were super-duper Knigs and he had Fin backing his economy. If I think Knights are too early here, then I should grab Vicky of Russia, right? Not feeling Monty as much... he probably won't have a goddamn chance of landing the Taj, so Nationalism for drafting Musketeers is probably too expensive to really justify a nice timing. Similar deal with Hammy... can't see Agg Landsnickers being really different than Agg Pikemen for this setup. Org Rathaus is still legit, but I wonder if he'll be too slow compared to the Imp/Phi/Spi guys.

I think the one thing I'm really not sure about is how badly I want Phi or not.

[Krill]

HA dominate early game warfare in Medi. Fast movers that you already have the tech for, and no one likes going Fuedalism first.

I would like to point out that one advantage of PHI is that you are in a race to get an artist to bulb Music, so you can then easily pop borders and get the replacement GA, depending on religion set up that has a greater or lesser value. You might think that starting with CoL is enough, but the early game is dominated by slavery to get enough workers to keep up with expansion, and also the military units to protect yourself; relying on caste and artists to pop borders is risky for SPI (need a sentry net to give you a heads up on an invasion) and suicidal for everyone else. So value SPI.

For PHI, consider the following: a GS bulbs Philo then Machinery, GM bulbs Civil Service then Paper and a GA bulbs Music then Theo. Given Fued is necssary to defend yourself with longbows, it's actually a viable choice to plan on an early GM for CS whilst you head straight for Feudalism. Gandhi does this best to micro between slavery, and caste to pop borders/get the GM. And CKN are never bad given they destroy all early game units except HA and can defend cities against HA. Just not particularly great.

The Dutch should be banned in any game where water is relevant, don't even know why they are allowed in. Monty is good for that all of nothing knight/musketeer rush and Hammy of HRE is interesting given slightly cheaper settlers. All that said, I probably value Mansa most of all. All cities start with granaries and slavery is uber, what better to work than FIN cottages or FIN coast with the free lighthouses? Mansa is the late game power house out of all these.

[Krill]

1. Frederick of America - No.

2. Asoka of Egypt - Junk civ. Decent but slightly slow leader. Reasonable back up choice

3. Julius Caesar of Germany - Junk civ. IMP is overrated IMO, but cheapest settlers of them all. Trap choice.

4. Justinian of Mongolia - Rush all the things. No cheap buildings so just build Keshiks and murder people. Pass.

5. Gandhi of China - Yes but then everyone wants him. If you put him top of the list you'll either get him or your last choice pick. Good but not worth the risk in this pick set up.

6. Suleiman of Maya - Anti getting rushed but slow as all fuck (IMP is overrated redux)

7. Elizabeth of Portugal - Portugal should be banned, eiither junk or OP. Liz is overrated.

8. Roosevelt of Dutch - Why isn't this banned? Roosevelt is junk though.

9. Victoria of Russia - Yes, get ahead on that cottage growth, need to build a good tech base and you better time that GA to perfection to get into Bureaucracy/Caste, as you can't get back into slavery. Success is defined by ability to grow pop in hammer cities IMO. Needs to rush knights simply for the workshop hammers at Guilds and again Chemistry which distracts from the mid-late game beeline to Cossacks.

10. Mansa Musa of Arabia - Best choice here. Just need to focus on growing 1 city to size 8 and blitzing out a GM for CS and I think everything else will work out.

11. Darius of Japan - why not actually, I've seen worse ideas. Slower than vicky but you won't get distracted by beelines and late game output will be sound. I'd probably prefer Darius to Vicky for the challange if I was playing this solo.

12. Ragnar of England - oh god yes this sounds fantastic but it'll be unwieldy in the early game.

13. Alexander of Ethiopia - No.

14. Boudica of Ottomans - lol no.

15. Pericles of Korea - doesn't deserve an answer Pericles is junk but CHM does have the ability to get out 2 promo knights with no buildings in a city. It's just that knight beelines don't benefit from PHI.

16. Genghis Khan of Aztecs - Ultimate "Fuck you, you aren't winning this game and I don't care that I won't either" award winner. Fun though.

17. Montezuma of France - One trick pony but that trick will destroy unprepared and bad players. Just make sure you can bulb Gunpowder with a GE (must have Engineering and Guilds to do so) then move onto Chemistry, potentially with a GS bulb (must have Philo and NOT have Paper)

18. Hammurabi of Holy Roman Empire - Yes, worth it but make sure you have a fast start.

The rest are junk IMO.

[GermanJoey]

What do you think of Ind? I was actually thinking that Ind might be super good compared to PB35, because cities don't start with forges here and both the HE and NE are buildable. Rosey might be able to get a GE out faster than any other leader in this pool besides maybe Gandhi. (I gotta think on that a bit) That would let him grab one of the Classical wonders that are still buildable here. (of which I think a particular one would be super good) But IMHO, even if I think everyone is gonna put these two at the top of my list, I think I gotta do it too or else I'll be filled with regrets.

Liz - I've been trying to figure out why this got two bans. The best I can figure is that people might be worried about a MoM/TaJ rush combo, for which this leader would be the best? Use Phi to get a GE to rush the MoM, then bulb the Music Artist, then throw that bulb into Nationalism, then rush the Taj. Then throw 3 GAs, for 48 turns of GA for the cost of 9 GP. But first of all, that's clunky as all hell, and second of all you're only barely breaking even in terms of GA turns after your 3rd GA has finished. This has gotta be crap.

I'm definitely thinking the same you are re: Imp, I don't think I want that trait unless I go for Vicky.

Mansa.... hmm. Well the civ is nothing, I can't see either camel archers or the madrassa helping, since all the religions are pre-shrined. The question is, how fast could I realistically get out a GM here? Can't just stay in Caste for ever in the early game, so that means swappering around between Caste and Slavery every 5. But, there's no Pacifism. So we'd be looking at what, like 34 turns here, working a pair of merchants for each 5 turns we'd be in Caste? Can probably just research it in that time. If we started with Paci it'd be a different story I think.

Ragnar... man, I really wish we could see starting screenshots. If there was a nice river and a lotta food, I'd definitely want this guy. But, as you say, the start is super important and if we get a slow start with poor cottagable land then it'd be fucked. Teching up to rifles and then wrecking face does sound fun though.

Pericle is Cre/Phi not Cha/Phi btw. (that's Lincoln)

Monty - the idea of saying "fuck cottages" for the most part and then cruising straight towards a hammer economy via Guilds and Chem does sound kind of appealing... how many techs does that need? In no particular order, Machinery, Vassalage, CS, Guilds, Engineering, Gunpowder, Philosophy, Chemistry? We could bulb Philo for Pacifism, and then use another for Machinery. Chemistry is another, perhaps a GM goes into Guilds, and of course a GE for Gunpowder. That's 5 GP, with the last one costing 250 "raw" GPP, assuming no NE. (but we should have an NE). Actually, that 4th one for Gunpowder is more key for the timing, and that'd be just 200 raw GPP. That essentially leaves Vassalage, CS, Engineering, and 1/3 of Guilds as the total beakers we'd need to generate, which is like maybe 4000 beakers? ~3300 when factoring out the prereq bonus. Assuming we'd aim to have Musketeers by around T50-T60 or so, that's only 60bpt, pretty doable tbh. Won't really be able to draft them though.

So that leaves us with, in no particular order:

Roosevelt
Gandhi
Monty
Mansa
Ragnar
Vicky

[Krill]

Aren't GP increasing in cost in multiples of 90 in medi? If so need to run 4 merchants for 8 turns to grab a GM. Better to grow one city tall and burst it out, than the example you gave. Really the limit is food output and happiness.

The bulb path to get to them needs a gs for Philo and chem, ge for gunpowder and a GM for CS. The limiting factor is the GE which should realistically be the second person.