I’ve been mulling over this post for the past several weeks. I’ll start with the tl;dr: I think I’m going to quechua rush someone after moving from the start position. Below is the reasoning.
We know that this is a mirrored map. I do not know the map dimensions, but I can find these out using the Go To command on the scout. I know, as can anyone else, how each player will play out the first start now that the snakepick has been completed.
There are a 3 EXP leaders that start with Hunting, 2 None EXP leaders that start with Hunting, 1 EXP leader without Hunting OR Fishing, 1 None EXP leaders without Hunting, with Fishing, 1 None EXP leader without Hunting or Fishing. And me. That means there are 5 scenarios to map out.
3 EXP leaders (JR4, CML, DS) with Hunting are straightforward. Tech Fishing>Mining>BW. Worker eot9, start wb, improve cow t13, wb eot15 at the earliest. Can't hook the rice due to no Agri, so this is fairly robust. Warrior takes 4 turns to build from scratch until T12, if started T13 takes 3 turns.
2 None EXP leaders (Joey, dtay) with Hunting are basically the same just slower. Tech Fishing>Mining>BW. Worker eot11, improve cow t15, wb eot18. Warrior takes 4 turns to build from scratch until T14, if started T15 takes 3 turns.
1 None EXP leaders without Hunting, with Fishing, (Courva but Joey can also do this). Tech Hunting>Mining>BW. wb eot8, improve clam t9, worker eot17, improve cow t21. Warrior takes 4 turns to build from scratch until T20, if started T21 takes 3 turns.
1 None EXP leader without Hunting or Fishing (Ventessel, also me). Tech hunting>Fishing>Mining>BW. Worker eot11, improve cow t15, wb eot20. Warrior takes 4 turns to build from scratch until T14, if started T15 takes 3 turns.
1 EXP leader without Hunting OR Fishing, Gav alone has this start. Gav actually has a couple of options, partly because Hunting>Fishing comes too late to start the workboat after the worker. He has to go Fishing>Hunting>Mining>BW, Worker first, worker eot9, improve rice t15, wb eot18, growth @2 eot17, then move the worker over to the cow to improve that. Warrior takes 4 turns to build from scratch until T17, if started T18 takes 3 turns.
I also know two points from the game rules, that when combined with knowledge of the map dimensions that makes moving a very attractive prospect.
I know that on a mirrored map the only obvious map construct is that single band of land, and I know that my opponents are at least 11 tiles away in either direction. I know that all city locations within 4 tiles of the capital should be worse than settling on the starting plains hill tile, but what about settling more than 4 tiles away? That only take 2 turns to get the 4 tiles. Settling between 4-6 tiles away, I can then build a quechua in between 3-5 turns. I can then move it a further 8-6 tiles before I reach the point where most players will be able to 3 turn a warrior.
Why is 3 turning a warrior important? Because if a quechua moves out of the fog, adjacent to a players culture and then the turn rolls before they can change builds, I can Mortius any player in the game.
Back to the map. The map will not be a single vertical or horizontal land strip, as the map dimensions would be stupid and obvious, but it is also very difficult to interact with people. Maps with 9 players have to wrap either two or three times around one of the axes. That means they have to be laid out diagonally, either NW/SE, or NE/SW. So I basically want to move my settler past the plains cow, past the rice, past the oasis, or NE along hte river.
I believe the right direction to move the settler is along the river. Because of the requirements for city locations in the 9*9 area surrounding hte starting tile be worse than settling in place, any city location that uses those tiles will be worse. I don't see any food resources to the NE, so I believe that to make that area viable, there has to be stuff in the fog worth settling for, and I want to know what it is.
Next point: What do I even believe a capital location has to have to be better than what we have already been given? Well, I believe that the first 50 turns of any game of civ is really a pre-game, it is a a period of the game that allows you to setup your civ to follow whatever strategy you think is best; the first 50 turns is what gives CIV it's replayability. The first 50 turns is about what you want to prioritise to allow you to follow those strategies of early warfare, going for a religion or wonder, settling for a specific dot map etc. That means you need to focus on what techs you can live without, not just what you need.
This start has such high tech requirements, that I believe any start that does not need Fishing and has at least a 6 food tile, or two land based 5 food tiles, is better than what we have shown. Moving for even 3 turns, if I did not need to build a wb or tech Fishing, will be better than what we have been shown as I will be quicker to BW, religion and Pottery, even if I still have to tech Hunting. What if it lacks a 2 hammer tile? Then given what I think about settling distances, I am already planning on going quechua first and trying to rush someone, so I'm not even sure how to value the delayed worker. Quechua>worker without a 2 hammer tile, finishes a worker eot19, plus whatever turns are spent moving. That's pretty late.
So the question I've been asking myself for the last week is basically, do I move and try to quechua rush someone? Where is the downside and is it too much to pay?