[PB37 SPOILER] Coeurva, Bacchus -- Cyrus of Carthage

[Coeurva]

Don't mind the 3gpt too much, as you it's small change by this point.

The reasoning itself goes along these lines: with an immediate means of 1h->1g conversion (wealth builds), if this deal lowers Savant's unit probability enough to spare us another archer build somewhere, we're breaking even for ourselves, if whatever we build instead is worth as least as much as a wealth build. Savant still gets the other half of the deal (30g) essentially for free, but I'm willing to pay this if it changes the eternal tension up north (he's still covering his workers at Fountain Head with chariots, for example) and allows us to slot in more worker/settler/wealth/barracks builds. Besides, we've forced him to make defensive, anti-economical moves by waving around our own soldier count (80g upgrade, walls at Fountain Head) with essentially incidental maneuvering -- I think we've won enough material that we can give a pawn back to re-consolidate our position.

When your opponent is out-teching you, and you can't hope to catch up, best practice is probably to build an army while you're still at tech parity and rely on sheer numbers -- top GNP usually means that you have to sacrifice army builds. We're a special case for reasons I'm not quite sure about, but I don't doubt that the other teams will catch up soon enough -- or, in the case of Mongolia (~50,000 less power), already are close contenders.

But I don't care about the gold so much as about saying I'd leave the decision to you last turn and then going ahead with the exact opposite now.

I guess Savant needs to be putting all these hammers _somewhere_ and he can't build either Wealth or Libraries, so swords it is.

I'd be astonished if Savant had researched Writing just now, although I suppose it fits -- will have to check for libraries. There's not much else he could have researched at this point that would take him 1t at 100% science to finish, after all -- Archery, perhaps.

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Here's some lunch-time thoughts about the National Epic city: after chopping a monument (need to prechop the forest right now) and mining the second sugar as well as a grass hill, we can reach 8hpt; not exactly glorious. The National Epic production therefore has to come mostly from 1-pop whip cascading archers (at 7hpt, 21/25) / work boats (same, 28/30) / axes / spears (at 8hpt, 32/35) with marble hooked up. We'll also need a library to build the Epic in the first place, which is less suited to overflow because of the 35% modifier from CHM.

I won't bother making an exact micro plan, but we should anticipate size5, double-whip library, and then 4t/5t-cycle ~50h of whip overflow into the National Epic (happiness is no concern here) 4-5 times. This will take rather long, though -- I'm assuming T135 as our National Epic date. That might be a bit late to grab a GP in time for when we'd like to fire the Golden Age. Incidentally, we must mine the second sugar here, so that rules out happiness trades until the Epic actually stands and hammers are no longer desirable in that city.

Therefore, I'm thinking Whitehall should produce the next GP after all. This means no more whips after the barracks finish, slowbuild a market (hm) and run 2 scientists, 2 merchants as the city tops off (giving fish back to Styx). The market is expensive, but actually the most cost-efficient building for pre-Caste, non-Library specialist slots that we have. I don't know how much we should value the next GP, though. If Whitehall produces it, ~T130 should work out -- which is 10t after we research Construction. Might be enough time for Feudalism. Probably not enough for CoL -> CS, but then a 5t delay on the GP wouldn't break our neck either. Vassalage or Bureaucracy -- that's a difficult choice here as well, both options are strong for us.

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Another idea. Lifeblood could actually go settler -> settler; just grab marble asap! I think we should make a push for the Parthenon -- Poly is on our tech path and likely 1t-able anyway, while Masonry will be required for Construction. The pride of Athens costs 50h less than the Paya, while bringing much more to the table if we don't get a religion, and Vermin builds it within 11t (faster if we can assemble some more nice whip overflow, and I'll look to set that up -- especially given our impending bananas there; its natural rate of 23hpt is ideal to slot in an archer 1-whip at the very least).

Krill is also more likely to pick up the Paya than the Parthenon, seeing as he has a self-founded religion and SoZ to give him 8XP units from all barracks cities in Theocracy. And finally, most people seem not to have hooked up marble yet, while gold is a common commodity at this point. Failgold would be no less excellent than from Paya with the 1.5 production bonus, so we're not betting on the gutshot straight draw.

A downside: we delay the Heroic Epic by about 6-8t, I think (depends on how many whips we would have overflown into that one, too). An earlier Golden Age should pay that back; I'm not as sure if some gold would compare as favourably, though. Still, I wouldn't like not to use a tech at once. Besides, I don't think anyone but Krill will have Aesthetics when we pick it up, people will probably prefer Calendar or Construction or perhaps Metal Casting -- although Joey could also be a contender for the Parthenon. Gavagai just finished the Mids and dtay/Savant probably have other things on their minds. The Khatunate would probably favour the Paya as well, and I think they might not have such easy access to marble (then again, our maps are 20t old, who knows what they might have discovered and settled)

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Still in Scotland cycling, so short thoughts, but I'm reading.

Hope you're enjoying it. Lothian, Argyll, or Fortree? Try not to kill any kings if it's the latter.

I've actually been thinking to bike to Ratzeburg this weekend, while I have the time. (But I should be able to get the turn prima luce -- or perhaps primae noctis -- as usual.)

[Coeurva]

T103

World news first. Dark Savant has accepted the OB deal, so what's the grand total of the feared garrison in Sorpigal? Two swords and a spear (I presume the third sword is on a galley that will ferry a settler off somewhere next turn). He's getting a good deal on import--export, since we mostly trade with JR4/RefSteel. Nonetheless, I think we'll both catch a much-needed breather if we can build better relations (and less military) going forward. The eastern grass wheat city fetches first-ring clams as well, which makes me consider it as X16 or X17.

dtay's city where we made contact must have been planted last turn... as his thirteenth city. If his economy wasn't about the same as Savant's (actually, almost exactly the same, from what we can see), he'd be a top contender in this game. Said city is hilariously close to Gavagai's neighbouring island, carries four axemen and two workers for supply, and works a deer. We'll meet Gavagai next turn (and trade maps, if he wants to).

Speaking of dtay, want to know why he's been so unusually behind in development? I think you've figured it out already, but there's a twist. He has a -4 modifier towards us for "trading with [his] worst enemies!". I figured that would mean Russia, and sure enough, CML must have declared war on dtay early in the game (unless Yuri actually did it during the last 10-20t or so, and then signed peace immediately -- seems unlikely, since I figure he'd build more units in that case, not settle two more cities; also, the early double-move might have been due to this). Which makes his and Tectomoc's comments towards me (regarding the "cutthroat" part) rather funny in hindsight. But then I remembered that we have never actually gotten anything from Yuri except for the world map, so... guess who has also declared war on dtay once? (There are no "captured/razed our city" modifiers, and he's at peace now -- I suppose there's another confirmation that dtay is kind of good at this game. Although, perhaps, JR4/Ref were just passing through for an attempt at circumnavigation.)

By the way, the Khatunate has flipped on research and produces a GNP of 213 (we can go higher than that: with our best cities all on wealth at 100% sci, it's 243, and they also have much more culture than us -- everyone does -- but still).

Krill has built the Hindu shrine in his second (Oracle) city, Room 101. There has also been a spread of Hinduism to Gobwin Knob (for lurkers: dtay's capital).


Calendar due by eoT105, to get the most out of it at once. Lifeblood grows so that the settler 2-whip next turn keeps its good tiles. Yeah, I'm basically thinking to settler-swarm outward at this stage, because other people are still equal in city count -- and have led over us in food for so long -- that I want to equalize by picking up all the food. Commerce is not an issue, worker labour is. We'll need to get ~2-3 more. Then we build a few more archers and settlers. The Parthenon would still be nice to have, so Vermin has to take care of that as well -- but the archers fuel the planned cascade in the first place.

Lifeblood especially can build workers competently -- it has nine great tiles and then peters out on nothing but coast. We can whip off the plains mine as well, then regrow building wealth (where the plains mine isn't desirable, but neither is 1f2c coast)

Styx only grows from here. It will join the club of powerhouse cities once it can actually work its tiles; we'll start by mining the iron next turn, chop the lighthouse, hook up the banana, then improve both horses.

Thought about market over barracks at the capital (takes ~16t to pay back), but I want to build some more units while Savant explores our territory; you've already suggested that we need ~2-3 archers inside our coastal cities at least, and that we can also use the time to prepare some swords. Besides, if Ignis fell at some point, Rhapsody would at least be able to defend itself with 1t CG1 archers. However, right now I'm also fancying the market (not least for +2 happiness from furs + whales). Sicil will grow to size11 after settler (building wealth) and pump workers pretty much without pause afterwards, unless we need wealth fixes.

Abbreviated game plan (not completely chronological):

* Settle to 18 cities (in preparation for GA) with some archer garrisons, develop our current middling cities to build workers/settlers, use wealth builds at Sicil/Lifeblood/Styx -- and more cottages still -- to pay for all of this
* Build the Parthenon
* Build the Epics
* Build a dozen swords, then ~8 cats
* Consume Yuri before he gets meaningful numbers of lbows / cats (he's currently burning through his gold); build NumCav while this happens as a deterrent to vultures (not the Sumerian UU)
* Fire a Golden Age at reaching either Vassalage or Bureaucracy (perhaps also Hereditary Rule), teching to Guilds, trying to set up knight prebuilds at the very least. Better yet, build knights during GA
* Continue to do everything we can to make sure we don't get immediately two-pronged by dtay / Savant. Eventually our GNP lead becomes meaningful in addition to our land advantage.

One can dream. (And lose one's thoughts.)

The demographics look like you'd expect (at 0% science). We're #1 in soldiers at 215,000 (Savant 201,000), #6 in food, etc. Grow four pop eot iirc. We'll turn on research on T104 as well.

EDIT: The screenshot reveals that Savant can kill our worker if he really wants to (because he doesn't play before us anymore on principle, I suppose, but maybe his schedule is just too tight to play two turns in a row -- he said he has a new job). I've been thinking that he's just moving in to scout the capital, and I don't think we're at a stage where a worker snipe is worth the risk of getting a whole empire up in arms against you, but he could do it. In that case, of course, better blame my negligence -- and at least we're not obliged to hit Yuri with whatever the Heroic Epic can crank out.

EDIT: Joey has lost forty score points during his turn. Surely he managed the mythical 20-pop whip. (Kidding aside, I have no idea what this might have been.)

EDIT: YES HE ACTUALLY WHIPPED ~15 POP

I logged in because I was that curious. Incidentally, I'm glad we're ferrying over axe + archer into X12, and I actually plan on making contact with him now. Just to gauge whether we're the target, because we might well be; in case we are, contact changes nothing. I actually want him to get graphs on us asap and see our soldier count. (Another possibility is that he's killing Donovan or the Khatunate with a million horcher or sword whips, the guy has barracks everywhere.)

[Bacchus]

Scores really have been behaving strangely. Krill somehow gained 28 points midturn too.

[Coeurva]

Part of Krill's increase was the Hindu shrine (18 points). And yeah, the explanation for Joey is as simple as that: he did, in fact, whip all of 15 pop in a minute across all his cities. (guesstimate, but e.g. Seven Mysteries went 10->7 and Yue went 11->9)

Afterthought: we'll also need Caste System at some point, best to have it as soon as the NE city needs the additional slots. Unless we're Joey's target; then we'll need triremes.

[Bacchus]

Read your post slower. If not Paya, maybe great library at Rhapsody? It will easily generate more GPP that Parthenon, plus a chunk of science.

[Coeurva]

Mainly, I like the Parthenon because of the map -- most cities are close to the coast, which means they cap at ~10 useful tiles or less. Caste System + Parthenon would be an empire-wide bonus, while GLib only improves the capital for ~10bpt and 8 GPP/t; at 6 specialists run empire-wide, the Parthenon already produces more (discounting its own GPP). The wider the empire, and the less suited the capital is to GP production, the more useful the Parthenon becomes compared to the GLib. It also has denial value against the Pyramids builder. Lastly, GLib can be somewhat marginal if you have a strong NE city in Caste and build it elsewhere -- not so for the Parthenon, which takes local production again to increase specialist values at every food-high city.

GLib is cheaper, though, allows Vermin to build the Heroic Epic sooner (this is the main draw), and might also be easier to prepare for. Whip archer at ~23hpt, overflow ~30h into almost-done barracks, also whip that one, and that can be 120h done with 1.5x marble (if it works like I think, I'll sandbox this, actually), after which GLib takes seven more turns.

Clearly, the answer is to build both.

We don't have to commit before Aesthetics comes in, just set up OF in advance. I prefer the Parthenon, but we can do GLib as well.

[Bacchus]

You can only take 25 overflow from the Archer, caps out at its own cost.

[Coeurva]

Ah damn, I thought it caps out at the cost of the next enqueued item. That makes it trickier. Thanks.

Managed to get the game to work after initial mysterious troubles.

T104

Savant shot us another offer: his map for ours and 120g. No thanks, we're mapping him out as it is and that already costs us more than him. The Khatunate has connected marble :/ so they might be going down the Aesthetics route as well; they can revolt to OrgRel and probably beat us to any wonder.

We've met Gavagai. He's in Representation, got declared on by Savant (work boat passage I assume), and has thirteen cities but no gold yet. Sent him map<->map.


Zodiac Spire overflows 21h into the galley, then whips again on T106 to meet schedule. Ignis whips at size6 to overflow into a worker. Need more workers in general, mostly up north to cottage the remaining (dry) grassland, and need to settle the filler between Rhapsody and Vermin once the capital hits max happiness, to access the river. Sherry whips the granary on T107.

Rhapsody is on a wealth build, which isn't optimal for GLib here, but necessary to 2t Calendar and work incense at "q" asap.

I have no idea what Joey whipped. It doesn't seem to have been soldiers, or maybe he just had very few of them before. Let's climb the food ladder.

Looking at the map, I'm not sure we should even pursue world wonders at all (national wonders, by all means yes) for the time being, because if the Vacant Sea stays vacant, we can fit at least six more cities in there. A fresh city makes 7cpt at the very least to mostly pay for its own maintenance on every second turn, as long as it gets a foreign trade route.

edit: though of course, #cities maintenance will also increase across the board as this happens and must be watched.

[Coeurva]

GLib plan:

[prebuild market, barracks to near-max: that should take ~9t in total. Begin the cascade with 1 surplus happiness]
T0 @23hpt sword 23/40
T1 whip sword 76/40
T2 whip barracks 118/60
T3 whip market 260/150
T4 Great Library 198/350 ("~4.5t" to go, i.e. some leeway; Parthenon has "5.9t" so not as much)

(T4 would be when we research Literature.)

We might have to neglect some cottages at Rhapsody to run its max hammer configuration (23hpt), but Sicil's current settler could go to a filler city that picks them up (or the clams). Otherwise, I think he should go for the western wheat.

[Bacchus]

I do think that disvacating the vacant sea should be a priority, as should be building the filler, we basically need a steady stream of settlers, wonders should be done on a residual basis. The trick is that our bottleneck on Expansion is galleys and neither vermin nor rhapsody can contribute to that, so should instead put hammers to wonders. Also better to set up a whip cascade then sit passively at happy cap. Food to hammers!

On bus to airport, will even be able to login later. Cycling was great, we were in the Borders. Lots of ruined abbeys.