[SPOILER] PB37: Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who's the most aggressive of them all?

[OT4E]

It wasnt obvious what exactly have you uncovered?

[Krill]

Here is what I know: Couer has HE in southern resource choke point area, and he has colosseums in various cities. Couer has been moving galleys south despite having a grand total of one island city in our sea. I know that Couer has IW and Construction but I do not know if he has MC because I can't see any forges. I know that Couer has significant western islands in his possession.

I know that dtay declared war on DS, captured one city and signed peace, and I know that Gav declared war on JR4 and has so far taken 2 cities with no peace signed.

What I think is more involved than that. I think that Couer needs to expand his holdings in land, same drive for all players. I think that Couer will not be able to hold gains agaist yuris as dtay would swoop in with knights and take everything. I think that Couer will not be able to significantly expand north against DS, and he already has a good chunk of islands to the west which leaves him with only "my" islands to contest. I think that if Couer is embroiled in a war with me, then that gives dtay an opportunity to get a good border with Couer whilst eating yuris. I think that this is not in Couers interests, so I think that if Couer is more concerned about dtay than Couer is concerned about taking holdings from me, Couer will accept a peace deal with me.

What I think is that everyone that does not have an island guard on a given flank is much more open to being boated on that flank. I think that allowing an opponent to have island cities adjacent to their mainland coast will make defending their mainland after Astro more resource intensive. I think this raises the value of war in Couers estimation because Mandrake threatens his coastline.

I also think that Couer believes I am weak and unable to defend my cities. He sent a single galley (may have been loaded, may not have) and scouted out almost all my cities and saw they had minimal garrisons. I think that Couer does not respect the combat odds for shock axes on defense against CR2 swords and believes he can easily capture these islands and I am not a threat to recapture them. I think Couer thinks he has an opportunity to take land cheaply.

What I did was move up a chariot and find nothing. I declared war because Gav showed his hand and declared on JR4, otherwise I probably would not have declared war, but I have been thinking about this for a few turns before I did. We had no OB, we had no resource trades, Couer has no interest in offering my OB (he offered it for GPT previously, therefore I think he does not see me as a natural ally due to geopolitics. I would agree with that assessment, so maybe I am projecting there). The downside to declaring war is that it may have made other players think that they had an opportunity to attack, specifically, give Gav the thought he could pile on and take the shrine and then the rest, but that downside was lessened when Gav showed his hand.

Couer refused straight peace and requested a stupendous amount of gold (I don't know what would have been a good price for peace actually, it's possible that in some assessments no peace is viable for either side when first considered in just our interests, only when considering other players does peace become more important). This implies he will be attacking soon because he could otherwise have carried on with an attack as normal after 10 turns anyway. I accept this as fact, because I accept my above thoughts to be true. Those assumptions could be wrong, however. I do accept that Couer may not understand the metagame, and I do think that Bacchus has a skewed veiw of same (same as Gav does). I do think that if Couer thought Gav would attack me, Couer should also consider the values of each players likely holdings: Shrine, Paya and SoZ outweight the islands, therefore I think Couer ought to be careful in how he approaches war with myself. I do not think I should expect Couer to consider this though.

Therefore, my current actions need to be in the light that Couer is aggressive, and I need to hold islands from him. I need to consider how to threaten him and maake him think of potential consequences. Unfortunately, he has a total of 4 cities on the coast plus one island city. I have a total of 4 mainland cities on the coast and 4 good island cities. I know that should push come to shove, I can outproduce him. I know that I have Theology, religion spread and a great person available to revolt immediately if required. I know that once I revolt into Theocracy I get better odds in all battles unless Couer revolts to Vassalage. I know that if Couer heads to Feudalism, then I have a headstart in getting to Caravels. I also know that if Couer heads to Feudalism he needs to trigger a GA to revolt, but he also wants to revolt into CoL to push out GS to bulb Astro (he just built GL, GL is not enough though. I also know that Feudalism is good because LB allow Couer to hold cities against dtay, IF Couer does not contest any of yuris' land.

At this point I lose my mind because the idea of fighting me for some shitty islands whilst you let dtay rush out yuris and consolidate that land is a stupid idea, and any strategy that does this has given up on winning. I think stop giving a shit and look forward to having a good brawl.

[Krill]

I'm sorry, but these odds are ridiculous.

A C3/Shock axe has 52% odds to win against a CR2 sword attacking off a boat in the following conditions: on a hill (check), behind walls (check), with full fort (check...for some). You know what the odds are for a CR2 sword attacking off a boat are, of knocking said axe down to that hp or lower? 8%. If the attacking sword wins one less round, the axe is at 61hp and has 77% odds of winning. The odds of knocking an axe down to 61hp or lower? 15%.

So if I have 3 axes in the front cities, then it takes 3 swords to kill each one. I already have those units in place. I also have the units ready to counter attack the cities (yay CR3 swords!)

The reality of this situation is that Couer has to land on each city, to do that requires triremes to cover his galleys. And even then, it's 50/50 that two CR2 swords will take out that C3/Shock axe ie to kill 3 axes you probably lose at least 4 swords, maybe more but you open yourself up to being attacked in the first place...by my 8XP swords that I can promote to C3/Shock, and those swords have 95% odds to win on attack unless there are covering axes. And if there are covering axes, then that requires even more galleys to be in play and I've seen 2. I expect the attack to come through Zodiac Spire simply because Couer has to have had more galleys on the "other sea" to settle those islands and he can fort them across, so I don't know how many he has, but...well, I have triremes in place to make sure he doesn't attack anywhere except Mandrake without me hitting him first.

[OT4E]

Declaring war and try to make immediate peace is nice move. I got countered this way many times. I couldnt find out what made you think you are going to be attacked, but now I've got it. Thanks for explanation.

[Krill]

The declare war/peace for ingame NAP isn't exactly new as you said, and I don't particularly like the mechanic. In this instance, I think it's reasonable to declare war and offer peace not because I want the NAP, but because I'm using the offer as peace as a method of measuring another players intentions; if Couer had accepted straight peace then yes I'd have had 10 turns to build and position, but it would not have changed the game inasmuch Couer still has the incentive to take the islands.

If you have any further questions now is the time to ask them; I'm going on holiday to good ole' USA next Friday for 2 weeks. That reminds me, I need to post that publicly.

[Krill]

Also, I'm looking at what could happen to actually get odds on C3/shock axes behind walls.

CR3 maces don't get odds even when landed. Double promoted knights (C2) get odds on axes once landed. After that we're approaching Frigates and the ability to bombard from the water, so the tactical picture changes. But I figure the game is over by then (either Gav eats me, or dtay forces a concession). There's no easy or cheap way to fight axes in cities, the cost in hammers to build catapults suggests that hammer cost is not trivial.

Because of this, I figure this brawl will be decided on the water, which means I have to match Couers' Astro and Optics timeframe. Optics should be trivial if he goes to Feud, but Astro requires a bit more planning given I've just whipped cities I intended to grow to shove out a triple GS bulb and need to tech CoL as well.

[OT4E]

Have you given up attack on China?

[Krill]

I've been re-evaluating that. I can't attack China and deal with Couer at the same time, but if I get a window I might do so. I know I need to get the capital, but frankly Joey got an Artist and I don't know how (or rather, I don't know how he got it so quickly) and I'm aware that I might end up in a position where I'm forced to counter bomb Ventessels capital to hold it, and that seems wasteful to me. I don't know, depends on the resources needing to be allocated to such an attack. If I could take his capital and the cities up to that latitude then I think I grab something like an extra 8 cities including the jungle spur to the west, so I should not underestimate the value of an effective war. I just don't see how I can effectively carry it out in the current game situation.

And before anyone says "why fight so hard to hold the islands" the reason is that once Couer has enough to take one island, he has enough to take all of them if I don't adequately defend. So I'm basically stuck holding the line where it is, giving up a city doesn't make it any easier to hold what remains.

[OT4E]

One more thing. Why do you think you are going to be attack with swords?

[Krill]

Cos being attacked by anything else is actually worse for Couer than being attacked by swords.

Axes? Lower strength so worse odds. NC? If promoted to C2 shock they have similar odds but cost more, mobility isn't that useful so I don't see why they'd bulk build NC for this purpose. WE? C2 is max promo without vassalage and 8.4 strength against 11.5, shock is 7.7 against 10.25 and that's after landing. In both cases I'll just whip a single spear as an extra body, spear defends at something close to 11.4 without fort.

I'll also be adding swords on defence, a c4 sword is 14.6 or something. So really swords are the main threat, but I think there is a psychological edge that swords are city attackers therefore players focus on using swords.

Also I don't have to take the final promo until he lands on some units, c3 is plenty if he tries to attack off boats. I have flexibility.