[Spoilers] Luff_Hi of Japan

[scooter]

The only way I can see him taking this city is if he reloads to select the order of attack, or attacks each turn and only keeps the turns he likes. There isn't much I can do about that ... is there anything the lurkers can do?

Do you have a reason to think he's cheating..?

[Ruff_Hi]

Do you have a reason to think he's cheating..?

Is this cheating? There are different views in the pbem community regarding this feature of the game. Some say that it is a no-no, some just live with it because you cannot police it.

Do I have reason to believe that Yaz is simming out battles and reloading if things go bad. Zero, nil, nada, nothing. However, you will have noticed that I am keeping track of his odds and his results. He has displayed a willingness to attack at low odds (25-30% mark) and even at really low odds (1% mark). He has also shown some pretty good luck (this 'luck' is zero evidence of reloading ... as they say, shit happens).

However, putting on a logical order of attack, I don't see any reason to attack with a CR2 axe (loses) then a CR3 axe (wins) unless you want to protect your CR3 axe (in this situation, both of the CR3 options (attack first or second) will have almost identical odds. I guess if I see an illogical attack order, then my 'something is wrong' spidey sense will sound a small warning.

... Or as Darrell likes to say ... I am calling BS.

[Ruff_Hi]

Further news re possible iron city ...

• SquareLeg: Hey Ruff - I whipped the settler in my cap last turn and so it will be ready to move when I play the save tonight.
  Any chance I can borrow my galley back to send him over to you?
  
• Ruff: depends on what Yaz is doing with his galley
  I might whip / chop galley out of ivory city
  
• SquareLeg: Ok - what is your eta for that? If it is going to be more than 5t then I would like to send the settler off to found another city of my own.
  
• Ruff: prob around 2 to 4
  will have better idea by tonight
  have 2 workrs in the area ready to chop
  
• SquareLeg: Ok - you can borrow one of mine if you like? That would make it a 1t chop.
  
• Ruff: do you ahve the save?
  
• SquareLeg: yep
  
• Ruff: holding it for this discussion?
  I cannot remember state of my 2nd city
  
• SquareLeg: well - sort of but I can't play till I finish work tonght
  
• Ruff: but if you move 1 worker to the forest 1W of 2nd city
  I will move my workers there and all 3 can chop
  you might have to gift worker
  
• SquareLeg: yeah
  
• Ruff: I will return
  
• SquareLeg: ok - I will need to gift the worker so that it can get its movement back
  
• Ruff: I should get maths from Darrell whihc will mean forest is worth 20
  will review in detail when I get the save tonight
  
• SquareLeg: Please can you gift me the galley in the ivory coast so the workers can get a lift home too?
  
• Ruff: np
  will chop galley, move to your territory, gift
  you put settler on it, move and settle then gift city
  quickest way to 2nd city
  iron city
  
• SquareLeg: Ok - do you want it settled on the iron?
  
• Ruff: no
  I have location marked but you cannot see it <grin>
  will send you screenshot
  
• SquareLeg: ok
  
• Ruff: want to pick up iron, horses and borrow seafood from capital to grow
  
• SquareLeg: ok - I can guess where that would be but will wait for screenshot
  What are your thoughts on the alliance - Darrell has talked about us being in a tri-alliance already!
  
• Ruff: he said I could share stuff with you
  I want to chat to him breifly before responding to your proposal
  but this is looking good
  
• SquareLeg: cool - I mentioned to Darrell in chat that if you guys were willing - it would be really useful for us all to be singing from the same songsheet so to speak...
  One agreement that applies to all rather than different agreements with each other.
  
• Ruff: that is my thinking too - but just want to confirm with D
  
• SquareLeg: ok - if you want to fire up a 3 way chat at anytime this afternoon feel free, otherwise I'll wait for an email.
  
• Ruff: thx
  
• SquareLeg: btw - did you take a look at your eps?
  I seem to be fighting you a little bit there!
  
• Ruff: I swapped them away last turn
  sorry about that
  
• SquareLeg: its ok - I think dreylin can see my cities by now!
  
• Ruff: noticed I could see your tech then thought - DUH!
  I an playing a 1 v 1 pbem game
  
• SquareLeg: That was because he didn't meet anyone else for ages though!
  
• Ruff: and my first GP will be a Great Spy to bury oppponent in EPs <grin>
  
• SquareLeg: I like the spy game
  Shame that those switch missions are so cheap
  
• Ruff: me too
  
• SquareLeg: and game breaking
  I think you proved that with soooo!
  
• Ruff: RB is considering a MP mod and I would either remove those 2 or increase their cost by 10 to 15x
  yeah - specially with Sooooo running a specialist econ
  
• SquareLeg: yep
  I'd remove them
  
• Ruff: 10x to 15x is a pretty be cost
  
• SquareLeg: They just seem really gamey and not something that would ever actually happen
  
• Ruff: and double that if they run an anti-spy mission
  
• SquareLeg: in real life i mean
  
• Ruff: oh, I don't know
  CIA in South America?
  
• SquareLeg: ok - I'll give you that!
  but not too familiar being a brit..
  one thing though - I bet they cost shitloads to run!!!
  
• Ruff: sure - but 400-500 EPs is a lot of EPs
  
• SquareLeg: I remember the good old days of civ2 when you could just buy your opponents cities.
  I must get on with some work now. catch you later
  I'll get back to you soon. ta ta for now
  
• Ruff: cya
  

I started to move my spear down towards Kyoto ... but I need a galley to get him over there. I could do the whole Evel Knievel thing, but I haven't discovered combustion yet.

However, ...

Hi Ruff,

Thanks for this [Ruff: see below] - I'll read through it at some point today and get back to you.

Btw - I completely forgot that anticipating not having a galley available to transport you the settler, I changed a build in Trent Bridge to get a galley out. You don't need to chop one out of Tokyo!

The galley and settler are en-route to the Iron location. I still gifted you the worker in case you wanted to chop something else out - he is pretty unemployed until he can catch a lift back to my homeland. I would like him back though to return on the galley once the settler has been dropped off.

Cheers,
Sitting Bull of the Native Americans

[Ruff_Hi]

• Ruff: you there?
  
• Darrell: yes
  
• Ruff: got time to talk pbem2?
  
• Darrell: sure
  
• Ruff: SL mentioned a 3-way alliance
  
• Darrell: He did
  
• Ruff: I am ok wiht that but not an ALL GAME one
  
• Darrell: He was wondering why you hadn't sent him details of ours
  I think he wants it to be the "same"
  
• Ruff: yes - but do we need it to be identical?
  
• Darrell: I see no reason why you can't edit our realy treaty and send him something second tier
  I was giong to suggest that
  He wants to see our basically so he doesnt get screwed
  So I would say send him a paraphrasing of the relevant clauses with strategic omissions
  
• Ruff: you ok with sending him a copy of ours but replace ALL GAME with THRU TO T???
  
• Darrell: if you like
  there are other things in there you could remove
  Like his land being yours
  that might not look too good
  
• Ruff: ok - I'll grab a copy, chop it up and send SL a copy
  send you a copy too
  
• Darrell: sure
  
• Ruff: or do you want to see edited version before I send it to SL?
  
• Darrell: what turn?
  
• Ruff: SL mentioned T200
  
• Darrell: he did
  reading his now
  
• Ruff: question is - will Krill / Drylin be dead by then?
  
• Darrell: I have decided not to wage a war of aggression against krill
  probably stupid
  but he gave me copper at a critical time
  
• Ruff: ok, fair enough
  
• Darrell: dreylin otoh, I think is really in a bad situation
  
• Ruff: but you aren't doing to be a dummy about it
  
• Darrell: its a race to who cankill him first
  no, I will not
  
• Ruff: ok
  
• Darrell: be a dummy that is
  
• Ruff: well - lets say T200 or only 3 nations left, which ever occurs first
  and at that point, we reneg with a 10T cooldown
  
• Darrell: sounds fine
  
• Ruff: ok - will send edit in a bit
  just re-read it
  I am totally happy to send to SL as it stands
  
• Ruff: your comment re Krill mirrors my attitude re SL
  guess you get to attack SL and I get to attack Krill - lol
  
• Darrell: hah-hah...that would be funnuy
  
• Ruff: I am totally happy to send to SL as it stands - you ok with that?
  
• Darrell: as it stands?
  did you send me soemthing
  or just the game long thing
  
• Ruff: the treaty
  I re-read it and am happy to send it to SL as it stands
  
• Darrell: Just to be clear, you mean the original version you sent me?
  
• Ruff: our signed version
  
• Darrell: or something new I ahve not seen yet since I havent checked my mail
  
• Ruff: yes
  
• Darrell: okay, sounds fine to me
  if he only wants t200 then he can say so when he sees it
  
• Ruff: ok - expect NEW email in about 30 secs
  note that I said the attached was SIMILAR to our existing treaty
  it is infact identical
  but we don't have to tell him that
  and say that the differences are immaterial if he asks
  
• Darrell: why not just say it is the same?
  
• Ruff: just Japan doing what Japan does
  
• Darrell: ah, gotcha
  
• Ruff: see the mess it got me into with Yaz!
  
• Darrell: yeah, that;'s for sure
  
• Ruff: lol
  well - at least I am consistent
  
  
• Ruff: oh - didyou know that civ4 combat is really sensitive?
  
• Darrell: sensitive?
  
• Ruff: an CR3 axe v my CG2 archer with 5% fortification bonus has 55% victory odds
  
• Darrell: oh
  yes
  
• Ruff: an CR3 axe v my CG2 archer with 10% fortification bonus has 30% victory odds
  
• Darrell: I did know that
  
• Ruff: +5% fortification and the odds drop by 25%!!
  talk about 1 critical turn
  
• Darrell: there was a great CFC article on just why that is.
  
• Ruff: yeah - I read that
  adjusted str goes from 4.9 to 5.1 v his 5
  makes the world of diff
  
• Darrell: the only reason its 55% originally is the first strikes too
  I think just a small differnce in str makes 50/50 62/38
  
• Ruff: yeah - waiting to see how many of my archers are at 10% fortified when get the save
  
• Darrell: can he attack this turn?
  wish SL would play
  
• Ruff: the other reason it is 55% is because I prob got my figs wrong
  
• Darrell: looks like he might be gone again, he missed last night
  
• Ruff: his GG axe arrived at the hill outside capital this turn
  his other CR3 axe is healing
  expect attack NEXT turn, not this turn
  
• Darrell: arrived this turn means can attack next turn
  yeah
  what will be the unit mix?
  
• Ruff: when he can attack
  I think it is 1 chariot, 1 warrior
  4 archers
  
• Darrell: CG2 archers
  
• Ruff: 3 with CG2, 1 with CG1 plus promo
  
• Darrell: okay
  that's going to be a tough nut to crack with axes
  
• Ruff: and I think 2 of the CG2 archers should be at 10% fortified
  
• Darrell: he'll have?
  
• Ruff: 3 axe, 2 spear
  something like that
  
• Darrell: he's got little chance then
  
• Ruff: could be 4 axes but that sounds like too many
  
• Darrell: really 3 attackers
  expect immortals incoming, you've been keeping track of my updates?
  
• Ruff: well - pleanty of chance if reloading
  yes I have
  trying like crazy to get another spear in capital
  
• Darrell: that's the key really
  
• Ruff: well ... immortal v CG2 archer is ...
  
• Darrell: oh...BTW if you can please send me 24gold this turn
  starting construction
  
• Ruff: str 4 v str 3 x (1 + 40% + 45% + fortify) or 5.85
  yes - will do
  
• Darrell: 4*(1+0.5) = 6
  plus C1
  
• Ruff: no
  
• Darrell: 6.4
  
• Ruff: his 50% bonus v archer just cancels out my archers 50% defence from city
  
• Darrell: oh
  
• Ruff: 1 + 50% + 40% (culture) + 10% (fortify) - 50% (imm bon) - 20% (combat 2) =
  
• Darrell: I thought that was 25?
  
• Ruff: 1.3
  3.9 ... sigh
  need 15% fortify
  25% when in city?
  
• Darrell: natural to an archer
  then the CG2 stuff
  an the culture
  
• Ruff: I checked and my resources say it is 25% from hill, 50% from city
  
• Darrell: I think you are better than you think
  are you on a hill?
  
• Ruff: no
  anyway - immortals are a few turns off and I hope to have spear in play by then
  
• Darrell: you are right +50% city and +25% hill
  man archers are tough
  PRO archers are really tough
  
• Ruff: wish I was on a hill
  
• Darrell: yo uget 2 first strikes and +100% defense if on a hill
  
• Ruff: drill 1 is first strike chance
  
• Darrell: do you have a medic?
  
• Ruff: yes
  
• Darrell: sweet
  chariot?
  
• Ruff: yes
  
• Darrell: good
  
• Ruff: have a medic warrior down south (your WB saw him)
  but I cannot get him home without galley
  
• Darrell: I see
  give me one sec, I want to eta construction
  
• Ruff: so I had to promote my chariot to medic 1
  
• Darrell: 234 beakers
  If you can fund me I think I make about 50 beakers/turn
  so probably 5 turns
  currency will bring that down a bit
  hope SL comes thorugh with that tech
  be nice to get it in 4 turns
  
• Ruff: elephant v CR3 axe is 5.93 (8 / (1 - .75 + .4)) so that is good
  
• Darrell: I wonder if SL will give em his spare Ivory
  
• Ruff: hey - you can take mine if you want it
  
• Darrell: I have HBR
  A landing force of 3 elephants and 3 cats if I pillage his copper should be the end of it
  
• Ruff: not that I have ivory at the moment
  
• Darrell: 3 HAs not so much
  and not that we are connected via trade routes
  but yaz and I are
  I mean SL
  hopefully yaz is not checking the resource trade screen
  
• Ruff: really - you and SL are but you and me aren't
  yaz shouldn't have signed peace with SL!
  
• Darrell: yaz and SL made peace
  correct
  
• Ruff: if it comes to that - I will trade my ivory to SL and he can trade it to you
  
• Darrell: man I think SL went to bed and forgot to play the save (again)
  
• Ruff: totally above board re any Yaz / SL deal
  
• Darrell: this game is so much more interesting than PB3
  
• Ruff: much tighter
  
• Darrell: yes, that would be pretty japan like wouldn't it
  

and so I sent a exact copy of the treaty to SL and to Darrell ...

SL,

The attached file is similar to the current treaty between Japan and America. Please do not share this with any others. Would you be interested in signing on? Obviously the Japan land share articles in the attached would have to be modified (I am not sure how to do that without more map knowledge).

Cheers,

Ruff

Note this section (snip from above) ...

• Darrell: why not just say it is the same?
  
• Ruff: just Japan doing what Japan does
  
• Darrell: ah, gotcha
  
• Ruff: see the mess it got me into with Yaz!
  
• Darrell: yeah, that;'s for sure
  
• Ruff: lol
  well - at least I am consistent
  

... also, this from Krill (part of a bigger chat) ...

• Ruff: probably
  bloody war with Yaz is ruining my whole game
  
• Krill: You did start that.
  
• Ruff: not this death match
  
• Krill: action, reaction..
  

... I think I am starting to cool down re Yaz.

[Rowain]

... I think I am starting to cool down re Yaz.

Note: I really liked your 'I think of India and Greece and not of Ruff & soooo' way in PBEM1

[Ruff_Hi]

Note: I really liked your 'I think of India and Greece and not of Ruff & soooo' way in PBEM1

I think that situation and this situation is totally different. I started to hate Greece because they were hampering my civ. I started to hate Yaz because he set me up for a NAPstab. Sure, some of my actions didn't help, but you don't expect Japan to be 100% honest all the time, do you?

[Ruff_Hi]

Turn update ... more units flood into the Kyoto arena ...

Yaz - 7 units
Axe, 4.7, CR3
Axe, 5.0, CR3, Withdrawal, Moral
Axe, 5, no promotions
Axe, 5, no promotions
Immortal, 4, no promotions
Spear 4, CR1
Spear 4, C1, Medic 1

Me - 7 units
4 x Archers, D1, CG2 ... 3 with fortification over 10%
New Archer
Warrior
Chariot, Medic 1

Odds ...
15.6% - Immortal, C2 v Archer D1, CG2, Fortification 10%
27.5% - CR3 Axe v Archer D1, CG2, Fortification 10%

Note that my archers are actually better than 10% fortified ... one at 25%, one at 15% and one at 10%.

I've attacked a little spreadsheet that I knocked up to calculate the odds. It is still a little bit manual for my liking.

[Ruff_Hi]

this from Yaz when I got home ...

• Yaz: Welp congrats on a successful defence
  

My response ...

• Ruff:
  

... suitably Tokugawa I think. He still has 4 axes, immortal and 2 spears in the area. They look like they are moving to pillage. I completed another archer (6 now).

[Cyneheard]

I think your calculator's a good start, but there are ways to improve it. I've been working on mine over the past week or two.

1 million sims? That's a lot of CPU cycles; the odds can be calculated directly. This calculator uses that system. It also gives some nice summary statistics, like average HP remaining, as well as the odds of each level of HP. The HP remaining numbers are dynamic, which is helpful. It also correctly deals with negative defender modifiers. It's hard to make it much less manual; let me know if the interface is less than clear. That's hard to tell when I know where everything is, and what it's doing.

As far as I can tell, it correctly deals with everything but siege weapons, and situations where both sides have first strikes or first strike chances: I need more data on how that works.

Let's say the attacker has 1 first strike, as does the defender.
Does the game either:
a) Roll the Attacker's First Strike, then roll the defender's first strike?
b) Have just 1 roll for "First Strike #1", and either the attacker wins or the defender wins? Essentially, in this case, dual first strikes cancel.

I assume, in either case, that if both the attacker and defender have first strike chances, the number of first strike chances for each side is rolled separately, as well?

EDIT: Any original downloads have an error for damaged units. The damage calculation, and ONLY the damage calculation, does not use floor(20*(3*D+A)/(3*A+D)). Post-3.17, this was changed to use for A and D the average of "Strength @ 100hps" and "Current Strength".

[Ruff_Hi]

yeah - I know that I can work it out deterministically, but I sim out anything slightly complicated like this ... just the way I work.

Re First Strike - according to the combat explained articles at CFC, if the defender has 4 first strikes and the attacker has 2, then the defender only gets to use 2. The article isn't sure, but it says that a first strike chance is a 50/50 bet. I'm using a separate rand() function to see if there is 1 first strike or 2 for my archers.

I started from http://home.comcast.net/~proc/civ4/combat.htm but I am pretty sure that the calcs are wrong in some areas (it doesn't give Immortals +50% v archers). I would like my calculator to grow up to replicate this site. There is another civ4 calculator that starts from adjusted strength (dang - I cannot find it now).