Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[Krill]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britai...NN09B?il=0

So he says for the future, not now, as we can't know the terms of the referendum. Which fits with what I posted.

[Mr. Cairo]

I wasn't arguing with you Krill. I agree that a majority of MPs right now would support another ref. But Corbyn wouldn't (as he just said), and he would tell his MPs to vote against (or abstain) any 2nd ref bill introduced by the Lib Dems or remainer Tories. The question is how many of his MPs would defy him to vote for it. Not how many Labour MPs support it (which is surely most of them).

As for what he says about another fer being for the future, not now, well, he's running out of future. Hard Brexit is approaching, and soon it will be too late as there wont be enough time to propose a private members bill in parliament, discuss it, send it to the House of Lords and back, vote on it, and then organise the 2nd referendum.

[MJW (ya that one)]

LOL @ Cook putting AL at Lean D for 2020. I'm pretty sure that Inside Elections will take the easy way out and put it at Tilt R (I won't use tilt because that's an easy way out). I wonder if Sabato will have the balls to put AL at Lean R. I'm pretty sure they will because the way they write they seem to agree with me that Pro-Choice+Bipartisan is a bad combo.

Solid D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI
Likely D: VA, MI (VA could lose renomination. MI was 4% in 2018 but only because incumbent fell asleep at the wheel.)
Lean D: MN, NH
Tossup: CO, NC, AZ (AZ is pushing it but DEMs won here with unimpressive midterm latino turnout so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt).
Lean R: AL, IA, ME
Likely R: GA, KY, TX, MT, KS (GA, TX is demographic changes, KY is unpopular for unique reasons, MT is tossup if Pro-Life governor declares but he thinks he can become President and will sucide; he could change is mind so MT is likely, KS is very likely to retire and the governor's mansion was recently lost)
Solid R: AK, AR, ID, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WV, WY

Solid: I call it (unless something unforeseeable happens).
Likely: I almost call it.
Lean: Clear edge.
Tossup: Everything else.

If they don't win the presidency it's hard to see how the DEMs win the Senate because Trump will have to win AZ and NC and he's unusually week for a republican there (high minority) so the GOP nominee will have an even easier time. If DEMs win it's very plausible they sweep all the tossups and then only have to win one Lean R. Senate will be a tossup. DEMs have an uphill climb but the hill is a hill a kid rides up to get milk.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I wasn't arguing with you Krill. I agree that a majority of MPs right now would support another ref. But Corbyn wouldn't (as he just said), and he would tell his MPs to vote against (or abstain) any 2nd ref bill introduced by the Lib Dems or remainer Tories. The question is how many of his MPs would defy him to vote for it. Not how many Labour MPs support it (which is surely most of them).

As for what he says about another fer being for the future, not now, well, he's running out of future. Hard Brexit is approaching, and soon it will be too late as there wont be enough time to propose a private members bill in parliament, discuss it, send it to the House of Lords and back, vote on it, and then organise the 2nd referendum.

From Labour's perspective Unilateral Revoke>May's deal>Hard Brexit. I think the best plan is to pass the referendum bill assuming ECJ rules in Revoke's favor and then prop up May's deal if ECJ rules against Revoke. 

I probably won't make any future Senate updates due to reduced interest in poltics due to GOP being uncompetitive past 2024, DEMs to cowardly to do something stupid or abolish filibuster before then due to Trump's victory, but Cook rating AL as Lean D triggered me.

Edit: If I had to guess CO is Tilt D and AZ and NC are Tilt R

[MJW (ya that one)]

If you do a naïve calculation Nelson would have beat Scott 641 votes (greater than 537) if it weren't for that bad ballot design. If I were a pundit I would argue that this is a blue wave year--the GOP was carried in the Senate by the worst map ever and the ND (Cramer would not have run and she would have beat up some random potato farmer if she made a meaningless vote) and FL gift-wraps. If you consider that both Nelson and Scott lagged by around 10000 votes then Scott would have still won (there's much less reason for a GOP-voter to look at the ballot because there was a bunch of uncontested races for DEMs). I would argue that the ND, MO, IN, TN candidates were very weak for DEMs for trying to be bi-partisan and Pro-Choice (WV is Pro-Life and MT is partisan) so they really don't count. The only contested state the GOP really won was Florida and only barely. Blue Wave year.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Mia Love lost. Not the worst loss for the GOP because Mia Love hampered Trump and the Utah GOP will be forced to draw a forfeit district next cycle because of geometry.

CA-21, the last uncalled house race, was definitely called too soon. If he loses Will Hurd is the last republican in a minority-majority district and that really doesn't count because his district was handcrafted to have as few latino voters as possible and still count and he barely won.

[MJW (ya that one)]

538 puts CA-21 at Lean D. Last district that doesn't rely on the white vote for GOP is TX-23 but that doesn't count as I said before. This will make it D+40. Blue wave year but weak ND, MO, IN, TN candidates cost them from holding the line in the Senate. (I forget IN was Pro-Life but he was still weak because he suppressed his turnout with the dumb minority comment and didn't get bailed out due to lack of competitive races on the ballot--IN has their governor race during presidential years. I might as well do them all-- TN won a governor race but that was in a much less polarized era and the TN governor is a mere manager due to lack of veto so he could get away then. ND hide the fact that she's Pro-Choice. MO got in during massive 2006 wave and then got lucky in 2012.)

People will like to blame Trump for this but he did better with minorities than Romney. It was inflated by his strength in the working class and Obama being good turning out minorities (the extra ones he turns out all voting for him) but that's still pathetic. If people actually cared the GOP would have considered 2000 the do or die year for latinos after Elian Gonzalez entered and we wouldn't be here in the first place.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I call CA-21 for TJ Cox. I said long ago that Valado didn't count as a success for GOP for minorities because he is propped up by the rural nature of his district so others wouldn't be able to replicate his success; so this does nothing for me. Expect it's now D+40. Blue wave year.

The reason why the Senate didn't match up with the House and Governor races was because of the extremely weak IN, MO and ND incumbents. If they were good they would have won -- IN and MO were against B-ranked candidates and ND would have faced a potato farmer if she didn't mess up. This would cause GOP to go -2 (AL-S) which is an obviously great result on the worst Senate map ever.

IN ran a spazzy GOP-light campaign and got nothing because of him not voting for Brett and inviting Obama. ND and MO were Pro-Choice and Bi-partisan which is a combo that doesn't work because the GOP is overwhelmingly Pro-Life*. ND hid the fact that she was Pro-Choice and MO got in during the massive 2006 wave and then got lucky in 2012. The now ND Senator-elect is a cowardly person and refused the enter the race because he was sure he would lose but changed his mind after ND stopped hiding and was extremely cocky during the campaign because he knew he would win.

*There will only be two pro-choice GOP members next congress and if you think about it they don't count --ME got in when it was a deep blue state and AK got appointed, lost renomination and the DEMs now implicitly collude with her by refusing to run real candidates against her so she would have access to them during the primary.

[MJW (ya that one)]

GOP has won MS-S. If the DEMs got Brandon Presley they could have won because he would be able to bleed off a lot of the white vote while stilling getting all the black vote due to bad GOP candidate. 2020 is too late because she will benefit from the better turnout (MS is red), polarization making it obvious that it's just GOP vs DEM and the DEM nominee being forced to fight his own party because they want to drag down the GOP with Trump. MS is still solid R.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I uncall NC-09. Board, which has 5 GOP members, voted 9-0 not to certify.