[Spoiler] PB42: Rusten and mackoti play Krill playing Bismarck of Portugal

[Dreylin]

Out of context of the rest of the game I assume you'd take the 93% attack odds, so I think you have to right here as well.

[Krill]

I do have to attack, but this scenario is when, not if. Does it make sense to wait? Maybe. Does it make sense to run in again? Maybe. Does it make sense to back away? Fuck no.

[Rusten]

Healing first will give you better odds for the 2nd attack as well. Some healing by promotion available, but you'll probably take some damage again. There are 2 warriors remaining, right?

As they say in poker, 93% of the time is not every time. You're right that you have to take 90% battles to win, but this is one where you don't lose much by waiting and making it 97%. I'd wait personally. Looks to me like few to no workers are nearby so the delay doesn't matter all that much.

[Krill]

On a beeline, I can get the gems roaded on T97. The problem, the delay on the gems hook up is not the workers but IW. Healing for 2 turns,enough so that the warrior has to win another round to beat the axe, would still allow an attack on T94 and then promote heal T95 provided we didn't get unlucky. But then, if we capture the barb city on T95 or later, we still need to wait for the city to come out of revolt. I need it out of revolt eot98 to be able to mine the gems, I can still chop them.

[Krill]

Turn 92

I've stalled the attack on Magyar, but I'm sending the 6XP chariot down. Considering the placement of OH's units and cities, and the units already present in Magyar, I don't think any more barbs can spawn in the fog now. With that in mind, I've failed to get an HE unit from barbs, and I'm going to put this one down simply, to bad luck in both combat, and barb unit movement.





The chariot will be able to attack on T96. The axe will be at 97% to win on T94. The forest can't be chopped into Sing Sing Sing until T94 due to Maths, but I've moved the worker out to road the SE forest: the forest will be chopped on T95, which would mean the gems could be roaded T98 and chopped T100, mined T102, RNGesus permitting.

OH has a warrior sitting in Sing Sing Sing as expected, so he knows he is safe. Now just have to hope he doesn't get ideas.





Overview. You can just see a sentry warrior from OH in the bottom left of the screen. With our sentries in this area, there are not only a few tiles near the barb city, and south of MtK that are legal spawn locations.

GS spawns next turn. We will be joint second to a Great Person, which is scary.





Have to burn two worker turns positioning workers, awaiting the settling of the City Y location on T96 with the triple chop into the library, but not much else for them to do except put down improvements I can't work. better to get City Y done now and then leave one worker, and reallocate the remaining two somewhere more important.

FWIW, if Mids had fallen a turn later, two of the 3 forests I'm about to chop would be gone into Mids, so I should be grateful it fell when it did.





This map is weird, but going to discover the end of hte continent over the next few turns. OH definitely has what I consider an unplayable start. He has expanded straight towards us, but had no other choice IMO. If we get City G location, then we have a sound border, slightly favours us, but we get probably 70% of the land and ice fields to the north. If OH settles forward, and gets City G himself, then we have the easy fall back option of just walking a stack down through Sing Sing Sing and take one city after another with no opportunity to be flanked.





Keep on falling behind in crop yield due to happy cap and city costs. I think this is the first game where I've hit an expansion limit this hard. I do wonder how different the demographics are going to look on T100 though. The food won't be that different, but the GNP fluctuations in the other players may be.

[Krill]

Turn 93

I realized this turn I made a mistake last turn, but meh, it's not a major one.





Scouting chariot has a few options now. I'#m not going to send it to the desert hill area, if there was a land route over there it would be have earlier cities on. Going to check out Babylon burning and return: that area will be checked out via a chariot on a galley.





superjm has tons of space, or he may have a neighbour to his east, or something. I don't know, only that this worboat is starting to head to the area the work boat from TX is likely heading. Also, ivory, the SOB.





I realized that with the worker in position, the barb busting warrior can be used as the MP in Kalamazoo on T96 after it regrows to size 4, so Kalamazoo can either go straight onto an aqueduct and run for HG, or research. I don't need to make the decision until next turn, but I'm interested in peoples' opinions on HG here.

The workers are farming the grassland, on hold to chop the forests for City Y library (works out perfectly). BCR is about to start running variable food deficits from next turn as it gives up all food resources and works mines, grass farm and a bare tile. You can see the JJ galley whip, but the mistake is not evident here:





I should have moved the warrior out of city 8, AM last turn. It would have reached ITM this turn, and I would not lose 2 hammers and a commerce, but shit happens. The chariot is backup for the barb city attack. With two chariots and an axe, the city should fall on T96: I don't need to attack with the axe until T96 now, so the axe, at 96hp, should have 98% odds against the C1 warrior, and promoting the C1 chariot to shock should have 96% odds against the unpromoted warrior, with a C1 chariot from ITM as back up. I feel much more comfortable with this plan, because if I lose 2 of these battles, I will have a damned good reason to be angry, that would be significantly worse than 1 in a 1000 chance of this happening.

But next turn there will be a warrior in to act as MP, so the loss isn't that great.





The Academy will be in place on T95 (I know it's repeating information) but at 100% it will be give about 26 extra beakers towards Currency over 2 turns. With Kalamazoo capable of going onto research, that is a further 16 beakers on T96, and 14 beakers if it builds research whilst growing. I would overflow 83 base beakers this turn from Maths@100% slider, but I don't need to. Averaging 135bpt over 3 turns gives 567 adjusted beakers, which I'll do at 100% without the Academy or research build from Kalamazoo. Add those in, and that makes up to 70 adjusted beakers anyway. So I'll drop the slider this turn to ensure we don't run out of gold on the turns we want to run max tech through the slider.





Someone generated a GG last turn. Looks like Donovan has done some damage to OH. Probably DZ's GG.





I've whipped away 6 pop this turn, from 38 to 32 pop. 263 pop in the game.





Yay Mids! Not.





As a bonus for you. FWIW, IW, at 322, requires 135 base bpt to be a two turn tech. If I only needed it to be a 3 turn tech, that would be 90 base bpt. Neither will be a problem IMO, without research builds, max bpt is something like 150, therefore with costs in the region of 60-ish at present, and going up to 70-ish with two new cities (but bring units into culture), it is easily researchable in time for eot98 if I wanted to. I will look at the options on T97, but delaying a turn is possibly better.

I am looking forward to figuring out what the timeline to Calendar is likely to be: Need to work out a settler build for the sugar and worker micro to hook the incense and sugar.

[Krill]

I was going to do some big, wonderful post exploring tech goals if we missed Mids, but I can to the conclusion rather quickly that it comes down to what gives us happy to grow up and gold to grow out, plus HBR for when we need to build military.

CoL looks good if it gives religion but we would lose a turn to revolt, courthouses are expensive, we couldn't get a 1.4 modified on it and Caste isn't usable for us until we have MC. We lack the food for workshops as well, so Caste isn't actually that great to rush for us.

Currency gives us gold from trade routes happy and gold from cheap markets and wealth so it's a no brainer.

Maths is worthwhile if only because it fits in before IW can be used and saves on Currency: the choice was IW>Maths or Maths>IW and Maths first gives us more beakers and the chop hammers fit for city Y, and it opens up a HG play.

IW as stated is needed for gems which gives us 8 commerce and 1 empire wide happy we can immediately use as every city but one is at the happy cap, or has been until I just whipped them.

And that then leads to Calendar giving 2 happy, is 562 or so adjusted beakers, or 465ish base beakers. Unfortunately we don't get much of a commerce boost from them but that's what we have to work with. Construction has an 80 hammer city improvement and cats, so as long as we aren't threatened it waits, and we use wealth builds to hurry up that tech to shorten the window of weakness, and pressure OH to follow on military techs rather than build an economy.

Lit and Aesthetics have to wait, which is a shame, but the marble is out of reach before a war and neither gives happy. HE seems critical on this map, but we have not unlocked it yet so bugger that.

Monarchy would be an option but without Myst, the prerequisites cost something like 250 base beakers, Monarchy is a further 400 base beakers, then we have to revolt for a single happy in every city, a 1gpt penalty and a 25 hammer cost for every single happy face. IW and Calendar are cheaper. MC is cheaper once gems are hooked, and gives us the forge and workshop, combined with Wealth...MC is the want tech that becomes the priority after Calendar IMO. Then CoL.

[Krill]

Turn 94

Quick turn. Need 130 base bpt for 3 turns to reach Currency. I get that easily enough, but the question is how much research building to maintain. I'm hedging, some cities are going off research to finish a worker, start a settler, get the barracks down in Sing Sing Sing etc, but on T96 I will reevaluate as I finish Currency incase I need to overflow more beakers to help with IW, or if it can be a 3 turn tech without impacting gems hook up (if too long a revolt, gems could be chopped before borders expand).

Also, superjm has Currency. So I'm fully expecting he did the Maths chop plus stone for Mids as predicted. I'll find out after the game.





ITM grows eot96. LBJ needs to work a plains forest to enable a whip T98, or it whips T99. Kalamazoo has to drop to slow growth on T96 and pick up hammers dependent on gems hook up, and BCR finishes the worker and goes back to research as well, those two cities could add 30 beakers on T96 between them. Sing Sing Sing can be whipped T96.

[Krill]

Post for self:

Gems will be chopped T100 if IW eot98. If city is captured and exits revolt eot100 or earlier IW can be a 2 turn tech.

That means if Magyar is captured on T96 and has 5 turns or revolt or fewer, we are good to go with a two turn IW.

[Krill]

Turn 95

Short turn, delayed from yesterday




Still up for grabs.





I'm still pushing for research visibility on OH, I believe I get that at 300 points (if we both stop there). Then going for graphs on Superjm because I know he is stop GNP, but I want to know his other stats. He is only at 8 cities, and I'm sure other players have more.