[SPOILERS - NO PLAYERS] PB41 Lurker Thread: RNG Roulette with a Shotgun

[Mardoc]

Commodore feels most likely to win, although Rusten certainly has a great chance too.

Darrell

Yeah, I think I agree. Commodore badly needs time to uncrash his economy and grow population and fill in the empty land...and right now it looks like he will get that time. No one is talking about invading him, no one even seems to be threatening his possession of the empty land, and he's got Code of Laws and is working on Calendar/IW to unlock some more happiness. I expect his GNP to remain approximately stable as courthouses/growth are balanced against REX...and then explode upwards as soon as he runs out of land.

Rusten: I think Rusten is in a great position but his larger strategic plans don't make a lot of sense to me. He's talking along the lines of standing pat and sending out raiding parties at Astronomy, rather than conquering someone. He could already be in a position to start nibbling at Naufrager, and instead that war is going to be a major major pain for him. I honestly think Naufrager is doing him a favor by forcing the issue, assuming Rusten actually tries to conquer him. Otherwise I could see Rusten sleepwalking into the wrong side of a 3v1 with Commodore and BGN and naufrager all piling on.

If you put Krill, or mack, or Gavagai into Rusten's position, I'd definitely consider that the favorite position. But his fundamental flaw seems to be this assumption that he doesn't have to conquer someone to win.

[Zed-F]

I’m not sure I would read ‘sending out smaller raiding parties’ as ‘I don’t need to conquer anyone’ so much as ‘I don’t need to conquer anyone immediately but can instead afford to be opportunistically aggressive against my neighbors.’ Rusten does plan to take more territory by force. The question is more whether he invites a dogpile by doing so or whether he chooses to be more focused and not annoy multiple neighbors at once. If he can avoid a dogpile he has a decent shot at winning... but he has a lot of neighbors. Commopin have better defensive geography to discourage a dogpile.

[darrelljs]

I read it the same way as Mardoc did, almost exactly. If it turns out Rusten commits to conquest with his Grenadiers then he's the favorite.

Darrell

[Mardoc]

I read it the same way as Mardoc did, almost exactly.  If it turns out Rusten commits to conquest with his Grenadiers then he's the favorite.

Darrell

I reread Rusten's past couple pages, and I think he's basically uncommitted at this point. Once he mentioned something about taking outlying islands from BGN - which could be a useful move if he can convince them to surrender the islands instead of enter a blood feud, but he described it more like a war against an AI: I'll do it and they won't respond meaningfully and that will be that. Nothing much about how to make sure they return to peace afterward, or to hurt them badly enough that they can be ignored. It sounds like a plan to, as Machiavelli would put it, "do an enemy a small injury".

Maybe he'll transition into a more defined plan once he reaches Astro and when the unsettled lands fill up...maybe he'll transition into a 'kill naufrager' plan when naufrager declares. He doesn't really need a plan yet, exactly, he's just starting to get to the point where he will need one. He's rushing to Astronomy...for no particular reason. It sounds like Astro will be his cue to start gradually building an army and navy, and begin to look for opportunities, but he'll give people time to react. Which means it won't work particularly well. It seems like he's going to end up approximately where he is now - same borders or slightly larger, same neighbors (hopefully damaged by guerilla III units)

I guess I just contrast this to Commodore: he's got a definite plan.
1. Grab unclaimed land while working to keep GNP above water
2. Build enough navy to deter Rusten
3. Conquer Donovan

Admittedly that plan still doesn't end with 'win' but it's definitely a plan that ends with a stronger Commodore and a meaningful change to the game state. Assuming he can pull it off

If I were in Rusten's shoes, I would already be building the core of an army and navy, to be upgraded as soon as Astro comes in and immediately try to kill someone. That someone is probably naufrager, but Cairo would also be a decent target: large infra-rich cities, but a small enough number of them for an alpha strike to be crippling. Heck, I could even make a case for BGN...if he was taking it seriously, so that it would be decisive. Start by hitting Boldly's core, taking out a good chunk of military production, ruthlessly clear BGN from the seas, and let the rest of the world polish off the far-flung remnants.

Or, if I didn't want to do that, then I wouldn't be targeting Astro so heavily. If he weren't pushing the issue, I don't know that many people would be getting Astro right away. He could sit back and nab a series of wonders, Liberalism, all sorts of neat things. Still wouldn't win him the game but it might solidify his tech lead for an eventual invasion.

[Zed-F]

I agree that Rusten does not seem to be committing to a post-Astro plan at this point. I think he perhaps has in mind that he wants to get drafting before he gets serious about conquering neighbors — he may feel he doesn’t have enough non-naval production otherwise. But once he gets a few galleons out he may decide getting aggressive sooner makes sense. Or he may decide that he can afford to keep peacefully expanding in the equatorial region to his east for a bit.

You are right that giving up the opportunity to make a timing-based attack might not be the best move. OTOH, since his natural target is Naufrager, and since Naufrager is already building power anyway, this might matter less than it otherwise might. I would have thought, though, that Mr Cairo is too far removed to be a viable target and BGN would be more likely as an alternate victim.

I agree that doing small injuries to his neighbors might not work well, especially if it’s to more than one of them.

[Krill]

Rusten has to hit Com. If he waits, builds up to hit nauf, Com will have an opportunity to hit him from both sides after nauf is weakened or killed. And Com will not be that slow to Astro imo.

[Mardoc]

You are right that giving up the opportunity to make a timing-based attack might not be the best move. OTOH, since his natural target is Naufrager, and since Naufrager is already building power anyway, this might matter less than it otherwise might.

My understanding of timing attacks in civ is that surprise is most definitely not required.  What's important is being on the right side of a step-change in military power, where your target simply has no good options.  Someone who knows they're going to be hit by knights can mass produce spears...and still have less than 50% odds in every combat, without the ability to pick the battlefield.  Someone who knows they're going to be hit by galleons can mass produce galleys, and still lose the seas without being able to even move their land-based stacks fast enough to keep up with the invaders.

The only real solution to timing attacks in civ is to be close enough in tech that you can lean on defender's advantage to bridge the gap before you catch up in military tech.  Or to be so far ahead in production that you can win despite losing two units for every kill.

I would have thought, though, that Mr Cairo is too far removed to be a viable target and BGN would be more likely as an alternate victim.

Looking again at the map, I think I mostly agree.  My initial statement was based on Commodore's sketch rather than actual map information.

Rusten's options are naufrager, BGN, or Commodore, really.  I'm not sure I agree that attacking naufrager leaves him vulnerable - but yeah, Commodore could be a viable target too.  Comm is REXing a little too hard, and has too many of his cities overseas.  Make Commodore pick between units and wealth-building for tech, before he hits Astro, and you can run wild for a while.

I guess it's not entirely his decision anymore - naufrager is going to force the issue.  Rusten will have to decide what to do about at least one of his fronts, and that should be some pressure to decide on the other fronts too. I imagine the only reason he'd make peace with Naufrager is if he wants to work on someone else.

[darrelljs]

Krill's almost certainly right that Rusten's best chance of winning is to target Commodore.  Once Commodore takes Donovan's lands.... .

Darrell

[JR4]

Did he really go to war for this minor city? Even if he takes it what does it really achieve? Of course he is about to lose much much more, but he doesn't know that.

Astronomy in 1 turn. Going back to slavery this turn. Some galleys have a turn into them and will be whipped into galleons. We'll have 3 fully loaded galleons ready to raid his coast very soon.

Rusten is getting Astronomy shortly.  

Hmm, Naufragar is going to be in a world of trouble against Galleons. I like Rusten`s chances of winning the game but Commodore obviously has some trumps also. Maybe Rusten can get a favourable peace treaty from Naufragar and immediately turn on Commodore?

[Zed-F]

Depends on how much BGNXenu feel like joining in. Naufrager should be soliciting help.