(January 15th, 2019, 15:16)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: May's deal crashes and burns. It's obvious that the only logical options are hard Brexit and revoke. I don't think NI would be a problem because Ireland and UK will simply ignore the EU border mandate which solves the problem by letting Spain off the hook by not endorsing NI. I would be in favor of a second referendum if it weren't for the EU's bad habit of "voting until you get it right". It's Europhiles' fault that Brexiteers were able to do and say anything because a second referendum isn't politically viable (maybe).Apparently an open border in Ireland without a trade deal is impossible due to WTO rules
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Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)
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This is how Article 50 is revoked:
May wins vote of no confidence tomorrow. DUP support her, so this is a given. May has nothing to put up as a new Brexit policy, so she will put up some bullshit that is neither revocation of Article 50 or a public admittance that the government policy is a no deal. MPs go ballistic, and a backbench motion to enable the change of government business motions is immediately put up (Grieve must have it ready) and voted in. MPs then have a series of indicative votes that show what everyone knows: there is no majority for anything. Meanwhile the EU continues to prep for a no deal. Some jerk/self righteous MP/saviour of the UK/pick your description tables an amendment to some legislation that requires Article 50 be revoked unless there is a signed deal by a certain time. And then we wait and see what happens: if it is voted through, then the House of Lords will pass it straight through even if another section of that bill required ritual sacrifice of their first born child (some of the Lords would quite like such an amendment). Or it fails and the House of Commons accepts that No Deal wins. With a month to go, this won't even be someone blinking, this will have been the plan from the moment the ECJ said the right of revocation was unilateral. (January 15th, 2019, 15:52)AdrienIer Wrote:(January 15th, 2019, 15:16)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: May's deal crashes and burns. It's obvious that the only logical options are hard Brexit and revoke. I don't think NI would be a problem because Ireland and UK will simply ignore the EU border mandate which solves the problem by letting Spain off the hook by not endorsing NI. I would be in favor of a second referendum if it weren't for the EU's bad habit of "voting until you get it right". It's Europhiles' fault that Brexiteers were able to do and say anything because a second referendum isn't politically viable (maybe).Apparently an open border in Ireland without a trade deal is impossible due to WTO rules It would take WTO longer to sort that out than it would take hte EU and UK to create a FTA, if that is what the EU and UK wanted to do. There is no way in hell that the EU will want to agree to an FTA if Parliament refuses to accept a deal though. Obviously some or all of the £39 billion that is "owed" would end up getting paid at some point.
It's faster but also not politically viable because Spain would be forced to veto that deal (special NI rules).
Also V has officially folded.
BBC News - WTO rules: What happens if there's a no-deal Brexit?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46892372 I find it fascinating that, if this were to occur, it could lead to the RoI breaching the Belfast agreement. And yet this had never been part of the narrative. (January 16th, 2019, 09:05)Krill Wrote: I find it fascinating that, if this were to occur, it could lead to the RoI breaching the Belfast agreement. And yet this had never been part of the narrative. Two Irish guys in a pub spent 60 minutes telling me this with lots of colorful language and creative metaphors. Darrell
USA Supreme Court has handed the DEMs the win on DACA by stalling the judgment to 2020 June when it's too soon to the election to justify shutting down the government/start deporting. Even if they hold the Senate it wouldn't take too much effort to flip Lisa Murkowski and/or Susan Collins. If Trump was a competent person he would have said that he would refuse to sign budget immediately after election because he's all but certain to win (the Court deadlocked 4-4 and the new situation is more favorable to GOP because GOP President wants to shut it down) and would not allow liberal courts to stall for no reason to benefit DEMs. This will hand the DEMs a powerful weapon in 2020 "vote for us for DREAMERS!!!". I put the 2020 Presidential election at Lean D and the 2020 Senate elections at Tossup/Tilt R even if Bullock doesn't declare now. This explains why doing nothing is the best plan in this situation. Doing something is always a risk and it does not make sense to take risks against weak opposition because they make mistakes and hand you the game.
USA Supreme Court has ruled in favor for Trump in transgender "ban". It's not a real ban because it only applies to transgenders who have a diagnosed mental illness and wouldn't be able to be deployed anyway (military doesn't allow you to sign up if you cannot be deployed under normal circumstances).
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