[Spoiler] PB42: Rusten and mackoti play Krill playing Bismarck of Portugal

[Krill]

Turn 132

This is likely gobbledegook but nothing for it. I need to play this turn because of developments.







OH finished Parth. Doesn't surprise me, but we now have 732 gold saved, enough for two turns of 100% tech, and one turn of somewhere between 50% and 100% tech dependent of wealth builds. SoZ is in Constant Sorrow, between his two front cities, and Part is in the island city at the mouth of the bar with Cairo.

We make 400 base beakers per turn at 100% tech though, which is enough to complete either CoL or Monarchy in a single turn. Therefore we complete Priesthood this turn at 100%, then CoL eot133 ay 100%, and finish Monarchy eot134 with a golden age started T135. We will finish Monarchy whilst saving gold IMO, as Priesthood only just needs over 10% slider to be completed this turn. This should still leave enough gold around to one turn HBR if needed.

Every is popping golden ages. Cairo is about to finish his. OH will start his with a GP he popped last turn. OT4E has a GS sitting in position to start his when he is set up for it. Superdeath started his and revolted into Bureaucracy last turn.

Only...I'm not sure how much I need HR right now. Civil Service is known by at least 2 players. At least 4 players know CoL, and we have Medieval era known tech bonus now. 3 turns of 100% tech gets me Priesthood, CoL and over 1000 beakers of CS which is 1288 beakers. Theoretically I could get CS eot135, and trigger a GA a turn later. Monarchy could easily be researched by the end of the GA as I clear up the cheaper techs (HBR, Construction).

Bureaucracy costs 12gpt, but gives an immediate 27 commerce per turn outside a GA, 40 in a GA. Given the question is Bureau at start of end of the GA, only the GA figures matter. I'll be charitable at breakeven rate of 20%, which is right for out of a GA, but as costs are constant, all the GA commerce goes straight into tech, let's say 33% breakeven slider in the GA. 26 commerce through 25% gold modifier, 13 commerce through 75% science modifier. 32gpt and 22bpt from Bureaucracy for 7 turns. 140 gold, 150 beakers net. Gold gets pushed back through the global beaker modifiers but I'm not working that out. Roughly, rushing to CS and revolting gives about 300 beakers, low ball. So it basically pays for HBR. Civil Service first is the plan, but re-evaluate tomorrow after the turn has rolled and when I'm not sleep deprived.




Risks that are being taken: OH should trigger a GA this turn, and he has enough gold to head for chucklenauts. He has iron hooked, and he has SoZ but no HE. We also seem to be good on the border, but that doesn't mean anything. Still, he is not going to be capable of two turning Machinery IMO, he will finish it in 3 turns, eot134, then he has to build and stack, and then position it. And he has Donovan with 4 cities nearby, and CKN are the famous naval collateral, and OH will be more than capable of wrecking Lewwyn, if Lewwyn tries to intervene:




I offered OB to DZ, maybe he takes it. He doesn't need to though.

Other risk is superjm may be in the process of stacking up, but we are dumping EP onto him, and again, HBR and construction after CS.





I have gone back through the city list and put what I can on wealth this turn, I can take them off next if not needed, or I don't go for Bureaucracy at the start of the golden age.

Power sucks, but given HBR or Construction should be down as the first tech in the GA, this should not be too difficult to rectify. I'm drawn back to the comments I made in PB37 regarding Cour and Wealth building though.





One thing of note though: Gav is building Wealth. We have generated over 750 gold from failed wonder builds that don't show in this graph. We do need to get court houses down though.





Question for you Dreylin: Why the monument? Given an expected revolt to Caste T134, borders would pop eot135 anyway, and with no other place to get a workboat out of, the chop should have gone into the workboat. As it is the monument will not pop borders until eot138 which actually means this is even slower, and there is no workboat to hook the fish anyway! Or those 30 hammers into the monument would have finished the granary and the workboat could have been whipped the turn of revolting into Caste, at worst delaying popping borders to eot136 in that scenario.

My fault though, I should have given more precise MM.

[Dreylin]

I had some conversation with Rusten about it up-thread, but basically I had misunderestimated how fast Caste would come online to make the Artist spec available (the Parthenon failgold will have contributed some speed-up on that front). Since the city is basically crap until the Fish is online, I thought that would be the fastest way to get it going.

I was very much in 2 minds about it, so if that's the worst misstep then I'm not unhappy.

[Krill]

Yeah, that's probably the only one that has definable outcome. Galley 1 was returning to pick up the scout on the island but that doesn't matter much.

[Krill]

Turn 133




OH has finished the GL last turn in his capital, which is his route to Astro. Which somewhat helps me, really. OTOH, there was a GA born in a foreign land a while ago, so I reckon another person got the Music Artist. Superjm? I haven't seen it, but it could have been OT4E.

You can see that the overflow from priesthood completes CoL. Next turn I have to make the decision to go for CS or not. I'm still not 100% sure if it is the right move or not, because I don't know how aggressive Superjm's actions are. he is putting 16EP onto us a turn, aim has to be to get tech visibility which is not an immediate threat, but we will not get graphs back on him until we finish court houses, or I spend a turn of 10% EP slider on him.

Cairo has Fued, which is interesting as well, as is the revolt to Slavery. Yes he has Aztecs, but this essentially means he has to use his GP for the next golden age, and he can't bulb Astro until he gets the second GA, pumps out two GS and then grabs it. So he is a threat to Gavagai (unlikely) or OH. Which weirds me out a little, I don't know what we should do if OH gets attacked and fairs badly. What I'm thinking is that CS is becoming a better and better option, if only because it opens up Paper for Privateers and will give Maces with Machinery. And Machinery has to be the next big tech: Required for Optics (Carracks and Privatters with Paper), Guilds, Engineering to be more able to defend multiple fronts and trade route Castles (without stone which feels like bullshit, as everyone else seems to have it), plus those watermills and windmills we want, and Xbows to counter Praetorians. The downside is that we are opening up a window of opportunity for the golden to get absolutely wrecked if superjm is about to invade. But if he is invading, and worst case he has the Music artist, I don't think CS is what makes the difference to how badly we could defend: being in Caste is what would break us then.





Picture because it is pretty, in a rather fugly sort of way.





Right now, breakeven is about 10% tech. To put this into context though, there is one more island city to settle and then we're finished. A size 6 city has a Number of Cities maintenance of 5.98, so once that final city is settled, that component will be totally maxed out at size 6 cities, and all cities will have a happy cap of 9, plus 1 with a forge, plus 2 with a market. The aim of the golden age has to be, to get down every court house that it is possible to get, because it will be worth a minimum of 5 gold per turn saved, ramping up to 8 gold per turn in outlying cities.

I do not know what the tech situation is going to be like in the golden age. We should have around 120 population, but I'm ballparking the figure at a max bpt of 550 base bpt. I'll be looking at that after OT4E finishes his turn (he is playing now).





Once these costs are stabilised, these will look better. Both copies of the HE and NE are under construction as well, and will be finished in the first part of the GA. Then both cities can throw out one turn HA until the GA is over and I will feel a bit safer.

[Krill]

Turn 134

tl'dr: I'm going for Bureaucracy, but it requires Wealth everywhere.




superjm is trying to capture his barb city. I am going to put this exploring scout, plus the warrior and scout on the galley into his land to check for aggressive moves. He is outputting 16 EP/turn, I can't get graphs back at all as posted previously, so back to route 1: scouts and sentries, droping OB is now the aggressive move to wait for.




Trying to find a route to OT4E from the east, wb will probably die next turn.





Barbs are still spawning for Lewwyn (poor bastard got some duff land, but spawn busters would still be worthwhile IMO. Looks like he got shafted on food compared to the super continent, and a bit worse than I got. Still got more happy though (let that sink in)





Magrathea is the city OH captured. Donovan is definitely food this game. Going to pick up a scout in OH's coastal marble city, then dump it in DZ's land.





All cities are now settled. I considered holding off, but after looking at the likely cost increases, given that any city over size 5 couldn't be affected I didn't see how it would be worse than breakeven if I put it on wealth. I've labled the forests as to where they go (SS basically has a single whip as well, so may just whip the granary). It is not definitive, but the apportioning of the forests is: SL gets 4 forests, FH gets 3 and SS gets 2. SL gets priority as it will be useful sooner, FH is least important but basically the third forests has to go into a workboat so it doesn't actually matter that much which of FH or SS gets it except that overflow may help SS more (it may reach the lighthouse sooner), which is a micro decision for later.





Conquerors plateau is essentially reached.





CHM would have helped enormously for the first 100 turns, but right now the idea that AGG would be saving 50gpt (as inflation would be lower) reminds me that OT4E must be enjoying Toku.

Given that the only players in Caste right now are OH (SPI, in GA) and superdeath (in GA) makes me think that I might end up reverting to Slavery as well. Given the lack of PHI, and that I don't need to bulb Astro, I'm not sure how much I need to value being able to pop out further great people given the position of both NE. That will drastically speed up the completion of all of the courthouses as well, so watch this space.





This is self explanatory.





I couldn't see anyone trading OT4E gems, so I'll see if he bites. The ivory just takes the edge off the unhappiness in Anvil Chorus, but otherwise isn't not imperative to get it.





Essentially caught up with Gavagai now, but we have enough happy cap room and cities to grow a further 100 pop, and I imagine he has similar (I also failed to acknowledge something yesterday: I said we got fail gold from wonders, but I did not note that Gav could have gotten the same in addition to his wealth builds). I still feel that Gav fits the #1 spot in the game, but only Leewyn, Superdeath and DZ seem to be out of it. Everyone else is still engaged and functional with varying levels of tech.






That spike in GNP for me last turn was CoL at 1.56 modifier, or even 1.6, now down to a 1.28 modifier.

[Hollybombay]

"I still feel that Gav fits the #1 spot in the game, but only Leewyn, Superdeath and DZ seem to be out of it. "

Is score what you are basing this on? Or what reasons would they all be completely out of the running at this point?

[Krill]

Score is notoriously useless until around T100 in these games, but after that it does help guide understanding as much as GNP, MFG, CY and power graphs.

RtR is also fundamentally different compared to base BtS. In base BtS, once a player builds a tech lead it is usually self sustaining, and the game is less about land area and absolute crop yield and disproportionately about GNP. In RtR, because we rebuilt the known tech bonus and essentially doubled tech costs from the Renaissance onwards, tech became windows of opportunity and not just a win condition of its own.

With that in mind, every player here has kept up in tech to some degree or another, and has varying advantages and disadvantages compared to the others, except for the aforementioned three players who...have fuck all.

I have the most land, cities, population and a fucking awful tech rate field by MFG and fail gold, with a window of weakness right now for about 12 turns. Gav has an unknown tech position and about as good land cities and pop position, plus Swedagon Paya so saves 1,4k beakers to get Theo. Superjm has Mids and an unknown tech lead, but needs to take land, and usefully developed cities but unknown power with which to invade. OT4E is ahead in tech, but behind in land and pop compared to Gav and I, but has MoM and a route to islands towards Lewwyn, DZ and superdeath, and no one that can easily contest that land because they have ruled out Astro bulbs with an early CS research. OH has the more unusual position of limited land, but he has a shrined religion, GL, Parth and SoZ and very easily accessible targets, and is about to hit his UU which has to give him a perfect opportunity to eat DZ and still prepare for a double Astro bulb from his capital which opens up superdeath after DZ as an encore of Ode to CKN. Then there is Cairo, bordering OH and Gav, with limited opportunities for warfare but great wonder targets if he can reach OH, all his courthouses are down and he can whip out an army quickly, and recover from the unhappy, but the food costs to recover mean it is a one shot opportunity. He has finished his first GA, and opened that window, and has HR and Vassalage. But he is running out of growth room right now.

All in all, initiative is with superjm and Cairo, but in about 20 turns Cairo will be staring at OHs galleons and a fucking huge Gav empire. Superjm I'm not sure about, he probably has land to his east to grab and I need his graphs to be more sure of his options.

[Krill]

Brief report for today, I hope I can write a more in depth post next turn when I trigger the GA:




OH and Hitru declared war on superjm to kill a scouting chariot to get their GG, and it is heading towards the SOZ city, that should give them 8XP land units and 5XP boats. The desert tile will be forted soon enough. But as SPI, it is only a matter of time for them to drop into Vassalage or even Theo (Vassalage, on the route to knights). So that's the clock I'm now up against.

I need Monarchy, Feudalism, Machinery and Guilds, and I'm already down Machinery on OH with +40gpt at max tax. Oh, and HBR... (Dreylin, did you see if OH researched HBR whilst I was away?) This is going to be fun. Increasing likelihood of Slavery after GA. I don't think OH will plan to attack me with knights, I would expect him to go after DZ, but if I give him that opportunity OH will go for it. I at least have to cover it. On the plus side, both HE will be up and running well before then, so it is just the tech problem I need to solve (shock, horror, answer is court houses).

[Krill]

Looking at tech requirements, without being patronising and saying what they all do, I need HBR, Construction, Monarchy, Feudalism, Machinery, Guilds, Engineering, Compass and Optics. On top of this I eventually need Banking, Monotheism and Theocracy by the end of the second GA.

I need Monarchy by eot142. I can't use Vassalage with Bureau, so I need to pick a religion and start to spread it to prepare for Theo. I will have to re-evaluate the great person position next turn because it's all gone to shit (and will only get worse if I drop into Slavery at the end).

HBR is 401 adjusted beakers, but I reckon that is close to only 285 base beakers: I expect a single turn of saving gold and then research will get it in a GA (it's about 65% slider at present).

Monarchy is about 360 base beakers, of 85% slider.

Construction is just barely 425 base beakers, or 1 turn of 100% slider.

Given I intend to build only fast movers in the HE cities, both of those cities need to build Stables to get the second promo. The first HE is completed eot138, so I could do with HBR by then. The obvious play is save gold T136 to T137, research HBR at at minimum amount T138 to complete the tech, then re-evaluate the amount of gold still available (ie confirm expectations from next turn because it should be fine to look that far ahead). Then probably save gold T139 and research Construction T140 (I need to build cats at the front), save gold on T141 and look at potential need for Wealth builds to finish Monarch eoT142 and revolt T143.

The only complicating factors are a war declaration and the need to build courthouses.

[Krill]

Looking at the Great Person plans, I think Anvil Chorus is so far ahead with the NE build that it's going to be very difficult for any other city to beat it to both the 300 and 500 point GP if I keep Caste. Stormy Weather is about to grow to size 5, and it will just about get the NE complete in the GA, or it can accumulate something like 150gpp maximum in the golden age, and Kalamazoo has an empty food box. That only leaves Sold American as the remaining Great Person production city, but even that is unable to reach 300 points in the golden age. Given that I lack Drama for a Theatre, I can't even complete an Artist there at 400 points, I have to go for a GM at 400.

This puts me in a rather awkward position, that if I keep Caste, I can push out a GM OR a GA roughly 12 turns after the golden age finishes in Sold American, ie T156, but Anvil Chorus will pretty much finish NE at the end of the GA and have a GS (or low odds GE) popped out right at the end of the GA anyway. And then it will be able to maintain 6 specialists in Caste, and push out a further 36gpp/t but with the low odds Artist. So the obvious plan would be to get the 400 point as the GA from Sold American, the 500 points from Anvil Chorus, and allow Stormy Weather to finish the NE using the iron and grass hill and then grow to size to get the 600 point GP (most likely a GM). I think this is better than trying to rush the NE by using the plains workshop, but then put hammers into a market whilst growing: better to time growth to size 8 (with the much earlier CS, can chain a farm to the southern grassland to be food neutral at size 8). OTOH, timed growth probably still works the plains workshop for the majority of turns (growth of size 5>8 with a granary and half full food box is 51 food, working the plains workshop, iron and grass hill, food surplus of 5fpt, and NE takes around 9-10 turns to complete with the GA hammers and workshop).

So that would roughly T144, 2 completed NE, the 300 point GP as a GS/GE, 225-ish points in a none NE city, and no accumulated points in the NE cities. So in the case of Caste, that is 38gpp/t in AC, 32gpp/t in SW and a mere 15gpp/t in SA. I'll look at slowing AC to get the 300 point GP as in Sold American next turn, but that should give a GP in Sold American eot148ish in Caste, or...eot156 with Slavery. OTOH, if I rushed the NE in AC, and I risk a double GE for the 300 and 400 point GP, then I could get a GM/GE from Sold American eot151-ish and a 400 point GS/GE from Anvil Chorus T156-ish.

This could work, but then I can't get an Artist without Caste so I would forced to grab an Artist in Anvil Chorus as the 600 point GP, and use Stormy Weather to produce a GS for the 500 point GP as it has no other spec slots without Caste (not even a Forge). The problem is I need to make the decision next turn...actually, that's wrong. If Sold American goes Artists in the golden age and finishes off with Merchants and an Engineer, then that can still fit with Anvil Chorus. If I stick with Caste after the GA, that just makes the GP for the third golden age easier to generate and plan for: I can save the Artist from Sold American and delay for the 500 point GP from Anvil Chorus. That means Slavery doesn't break too much.

tl;dr

Run Artists in Sold American, run scientists and 1 Engineer in Anvil Chorus but still work the grass hill to push along the Industrial NE build. Stormy Weather just grows to size 8 and builds the NE, and hedge on the need for Slavery after the golden Age.