[Spoiler] PB42: Rusten and mackoti play Krill playing Bismarck of Portugal

[Krill]

4 turn reports to come. First 3 of brief.




This was the turn I realized that OT4E is much further behind. He didn't get to Guilds in his GA, so he isn't able to get into Merc. It looks more and more that he rushed to Feudalism and triggered the GA to get him to Guilds so he could defend, rather than any proactive strategy. He is more of a speed bump to Gav now, than any real competitor, and that has to change how I view my current objectives.





We got a GE, which is pretty nice as now we just need to pop out GS and GM in whatever order and we can play around with how and when we trigger a GA. I can't see any wonders that are going to be game changing at this point, it is all bulbs and golden ages (more on those later, we might be in more trouble than I recognized).








That top MFG is Gav in GA with Guilds. OT4E was at my level in GA and has no workshops. Gav will run over OT4E once he reaches critical mass, so now it is only how long until OT4E falls, and what I'm going to do about it.

[Krill]

T152




I do not believe that OH has enough CKN left for anything more than a raiding party. If he were to declare war on me, he could try and raze a few coastal cities in the west, which means my objective is to ensure that Stormy Weather and WoodchopperBall are safe. So long as they don't fall, all OH could do is try and raze the western island cities, the western "Moai city" and the front city of HWD. That's worst case scenario IMO, and then I run him through with triple his production from everywhere else.

So what the fuck is he going to do?





I reoffered straight OB to superdeath. I want to scout him out to see if he is at risk from OH attacking him. I don't know if he accepts that, because he has always tried to go OB for resource and the information isn't worth that much: I just follow OHs' stack to find out, because my current actions do not depend on that information.





This galleon could mean nothing, or it could be OH moving units up to try and threaten SW and WB, or it could be an attack on Lewwyn which is being hidden by staying in my borders (and also should make me less suspicious because we show your hand if you are attacking. Because double bluffs exist, that's why).

And we see that I was wrong about Gav bulbing Astro. He bulbed Banking or another Medieval era tech, Astro would have been a 24 point increase and he only got an 18 point increase. Could have been unlucky RNG or anything, really, but I don't know if this is his 200, 300 or whatever GP. But as he has gotten into HR/Vassalage/Caste/Merc/Theo, he has no need for another GA to swap civics. So he doesn't have to care about GP generation and can use bulbs, whereas I'm going to have to blow my next GA. Late game that might cost me, and in the immediate future I might end up having to fight at an awkward tech deficit.





This army is pitiful, but how many units are needed to feel safe on a map like this? Too many.

[Krill]

Turn 153




These two islands are bait. They have no value to OH except for economy: they do not protect him from a land invasion but I will have to take them out at some point because if I go to far forward in any attack, they can be used as way points for units returning from Donovans land and threaten a run up the coast. I need to have a navy that can guard the area between FlyMeToTheMoon and Lewwyns' islands.





Gav is just throwing out knights as fast as he can. I've started to put EP onto him to get tech visibility at this point. I should get it eot153.





End of T153 demographics. After this point, every major player will have had a golden age (I can't recall is superjm has, and frankly I don't care as he is SPI and weak).





Start of T154 demographics. Gav is down to 422 MFG, which is 8 hammers fewer than his first turn of GA MFG on T146. Given I am making 30 hammers from a second HE (and I'm assuming he is building a knight per turn from his HE city, we have an effective difference of about 50hpt which is pretty much Merc. But he has the better civics, and can build triple promo knights and CG3 Xbows/Longbows.

[Krill]

Taking a break from turn reports to look at the bigger picture.

Basically, I think OH just made a huge strategic mistake attacking Donovan, but no one realised it at the time, and now Gav is going to have an opportunity to just try and roll through everyone that matters.

OH had a window to attack without my being able to interfere, but now I'm building up to attack someone, and he has just taken all my targets away from me and is going to show a really wide border, taken with essentially irreplaceable troops because his MFG sucks.

OH could have attacked 5 players: Myself, Cairo, superdeath, DZ and Lewwyn. All attacks had merits, but I think superdeath was the right choice.

• I was too large, so he couldn't take land and then disengage from teh war. There was no way out unless I let him, and without an artist bomb to hide behind it wasn't going to work. So war of conquest was right out.
  
  
• Cairo has the same problem, even if he is weak with poor MFG, his entire empire is built around 2 and 3 pop whips so fighting him would have just run into the problem he could whip up the billion horse archers and cats and win on defense after losing coastal cities. Then there is the additional problem that Gav could vulture any gains, and if it was a stalemate Gav just gets a weaker neighbour to attack.
  
  
• DZ is the obvious choice, extremely weak, easily captured land, second shrine but no other point to it, just extra gold. The problem is that even though it's a quick war, he has used up his window of opportunity and now he goes looking for larger prizes I am able to interfere and threaten OH, so he has to defend a wider front just when he wants to start using his troops offensively again. It would have been wiser to do either of the following attacks and then leave DZ for afterwards.
  
  
• Superdeath is the straightforward option. Shielded from vulturing, no army to speak of and no tech ability that matters. There is a window to dump units onto his starting island and wipe him out. Spoiler from T154 report though: superdeath has Optics and Paper now, so he can stop the galleon warfare by pumping out privateers and his weakness in army no longer matters! Well played superdeath, you managed to push enough that OH no longer has a route to attack you. If OH had attacked earlier, I would have been unable to punish, and then OH could have swung north and secured DZ and then sat on his spoils behind a still relatively short border. OH would have been back with Gav and myself, and could have prepared his position to try and vulture stuff from Cairo if Gav tried anything, and I'd be stuck with just Lewwyn or superjm as options to attack. This is riskier than attacking DZ, but it has a prize that matters. I don't believe that DZ gives anything or relevant value to OH, who needs tiles to work and workshop.
  
  
  
• OH could have just run straight at Lewwyn. Now this is probably the riskiest option, but also has a humungous payoff if it works. If OH had run straight at Lewwyns cap with everything, taken it and then split his forces, he could have worked south to take the entirety of the DZ island, whilst using his navy to shield me from doing any vulturing, and can use his supply line of units to bolster both of his front cities if I tried anything via land. I am in exactly the same position, with the same material ability to fuck things up for OH, but OH has the greater payoff and the better unit positions to fight from, and possession of actual prizes.
  
  I don't know how this scenario plays out, but what I do know is that with OH landing his stacks against DZ on T147, I don't see how he would land the same units against Lewwyns capital any later than T150 with city captured T151.

The problem OH and I both face now is that I have no opportunity to attack anyone except Lewwyn, OH or superjm. Gav is going to run over OT4E and then has no reason to stop at superjm. If I attack superjm, I just make that task easier, and weaken myself for that confrontation with Gav. I have to wait on superjm and use him as a buffer state now, or I run the risk of throwing the entire game straight to Gav. So that leaves Lewwyn, and OH. Lewwyn requires I build a navy, so I have to stockpile the army first (Optics eot158 I reckon) plus defensive units to deal with OH becoming frisky as he is left with only attacking me or superdeaths Privateers (OH is currently down Guilds, CS and Paper so no knight conquest and needs to get privateers to deal with superdeath), and the pay off is...8 food resources and a couple of islands if I take all of Lewwyn. If I attack OH, that requires navy to defend with and I just build up an SoD that he has to use CKN to deal with. It's a battle of production which I will eventually win, but not before Gav has eaten OT4E IMO, and has access to an MoM golden age to drop into the next set of civics.

And if OH goes straight for Lewwyn now then it's probably a fight to the death with Gav allowed to clean up.

[Krill]

Before anyone asks the question: Then why attack? The answer is: I win by taking this game long and grinding players down, but I still need to have more land. If OH took Lewwyns land then he could conceivably get a third of the map after he takes superdeath at frigates, and I can't compete with that. Gav can have the same by heading to the north pole via superjm. I have no way south or west except through OH, so I will have to come into conflict with either OH or Gav at some point. And right now is when I'm going to be at the strongest compared to OH, where the tech deficit of Astro doesn't matter and I'm up Guilds and a production edge. Sitting back and letting other players grow into captured land is never the right decision, unless you have a specific plan of reaching an immediate tech edge and using that the take stuff from them.

[Krill]

Turn 154

Superdeath declined the OB on T153, and requested furs as expected. I'll go on record and say I think this is a bad decision from superdeath: I have numerous cities he would benefit from the larger trade routes (due to size) and he gives a map to someone that is never going to attack him, in a mod game that has no map trading. The pragmatic decision is to accept, but he probably wants to make a point that I'm only asking for it now that I need it. True to some extent but I would disagree with the idea I need it, which si why I moved the scout back to just track OH's stack normally. And low and behold it's missing.








With galleons moving north, I'm assuming that Lewwyn is going to get attacked, but plan for being attacked myself. There isn't much to say now...





Cairo does not have Guilds. I've not shown the stacks, but OT4E has a shitload of units ready and waiting for Gav to come knocking. Cairo...doesn't. I'm no longer convinced that OT4E is going to be the target, because Cairo is just wide open. I reckon this theoretically helps me because it means superjm has more time to fuck about not building an army, and if Cairo falls I don't see where Gav goes (but Gav will have a lot more land from taking out Cairo, and he can block any real vulturing from OH. But it hurts me because I'd would be great if Cairo could keep OH honest. And if Lewwyn is the target from OH, then I'm in a position where I am behind in military build up with no great targets, and OH will not keep Gav honest either. So really this is just a neutral development.

Onto cities. I'm tired of writing reports so this is mostly just another pic dump.





Grocer next then catapults, trebs, something cheapish.





Probably going to build a long bow and finish the mace (prepare for the swap into vassalage) but I need some knights out for power and response to CKN.





I honestly stopped thinking this through a while ago.





I'm expecting Optics eot158, so then it moves onto a carrack. I am not going to get the tile windmilled until the end of the GA I reckon.





That stables turned out to be a dumb choice IMO. I've fucked up the city improvements as well, but still looking at size 11. Keeping it on knights for the forseeable future though.





1 turn knights. The final watermill will complete T155, but overflow got the knight last turn and this turn. Overflow from GA production will get dumped into a courthouse.





Poor city. Going to try and get some tiles irrigated for the GA but not sure how I'm going to do it.





The workers are moving down from BCR now, and I have 8 workers around My Way, and 5 workers very quickly running past Kalamazoo. I'll farm one grassland to get it to size 12 for the start of the GA, and then get all the hills improved for size 12. I'm prioritizing Am over the other cities because the simple process of moving the workers down there gets MW enough tiles whilst it's growing, and AoM only needs a workshop or two whilst growing on Moai.

I'm also not fussed about a few C1 knights, they are plenty good enough to kill CKN that land on whatever tiles.





I am a moron and really screwed this up. 3S only needed to grow to size 11 so I am way behind on the tile improvements. Going to max is out at 28 base hpt, just needs 2 lumbermills and a workshop and it'll be there (windmill completes next turn). Going to get a few longbows out after this Xbow to cover the cities as they are all at risk of being boated.





Same old, same old. Not touched it because of lack of worker labour.





With Optics expected eot158, I will only need to get WB to 27 base hpt for one turn carracks. Given it is at 28hpt, I can continue to grow it on the grass farm without putting in the last turn to drop the food surplus. I'm want to finish a unit on T158 with no overflow, so I will swap to the workshop for a single turn to ensure I can get 3 knights out over 4 turns.





The artist I'm saving for the tactical advantages of bombing in unclaimed land, ie if fighting OH on DZ's island. The GE has nothing to build unless I want to make a culture play and I go for Sistines (or I make a play for double Oxford). A Merchant I might want to use for a cash bomb, I'm not sure, but I figure that makes as much sense as a GS right now. Also hooking up the spare furs to not trade to superdeath.





This screenshot is wrong, I'm actually getting workboats out for the eastern island cities.





Swapped the flood plain back actually, but starting to run further merchants here (it will not pop a GM for a long time, so it's just for the gold.





Gotta push out carracks ahead of great people. Might be able to steal the watermill for a few turns, also going to workshop the grassland with, but longbow is just for numbers.





Barracks and onto real units. Two workers finishing up on the tile improvements here. Going to starve it for a bit though.





Barracks next then units.





Worker next. No interest in a barracks here, straight onto Carracks, but I think I need to push out 2 workers before then, just so far behind on tile improvements. overflow should make it work, workers eot156 and T158.





Given it needs size 15, I think it takes a further 60 food to reach there, so should just about get it to size as the GA could start with the GM from AC. It needs to go market next though, and then a barracks. Worker movements are still very fluid.





I'm going to workshop the plains tile and river grassland next with a stack of 3 workers (7 worker stack just built the watermill 2SW, the other 4 workers are running to AM). With those two tiles I think AoM can get the iMS completed around T172 (just in time for miss the GA!)





Changed my mind after taking the screenshot. borders pop eot155 and grass hill will be mined T157. This Moai should just finish at the start of the GA.





ATAT was settled on T129. 25 turns from founding to a solid 28hpt city with one food resource. Barracks and units next.





This is why I need more workers on the island. SL is only 53 food from size 9 and working all the improved tiles, I might have to grow it to size 10 and work the tundra forest to hit 32 base hpt. 7 turns to improve 5 tiles, 30 worker turns needed and only have 3 workers. Obviously not going to get there in time unless I grab those other two workers. I might even have to ferry some workers across from the mainland from a carrack in WB on T160...actually, got thee workers identified for that job. SL should be fully switched on T164 using the bare tundra forest for 32 base hpt, 2 carracks every 3 turns and prepared for becoming a GT draft city if we go down that route.





Trololol, lighthouse complete via chop eot160.






Further F screens:

Now for F9:

[Krill]

Turn 155

OH will move his chariot and unless he moves it in a very specific fashion, will definitely see 1 knight.

I also spiked up by 54K solider points. Gav spiked by 69K because of Engineering.

I wonder what OH does now. Here are some overview pictures.




OT4E will be disappointed...

[Krill]

Lewwyn triggered a GA and revolted into Caste.

Then OH declared war.

We are full systems go for complete militarisation. I much prefer not having to worry about making the right decision when other players take it away from you. Optics on turn roll and then straight onto Paper for Privateers.

[Krill]

Gav declared on OT4E and deleted Rheims garrison from the map. Looks like OT4E is about to get crushed and then superjm is about to get annihilated as well.

Should be fun to watch from a distance.

Reports hopefully tomorrow. Still looking at a GA in 6-8 turns. I can fit Paper and Banking in before the GA.

[Dreylin]

Still lurking. Looking forward to the