Could Boris actually get his deal through, though? I'm not sure of the math (and I suspect No 10 isn't sure either), but it's going to be closer than basically every other vote he's had so far.
|
Brexit Political Discussion Thread
|
|
I'm not sure what would happen if the deal got through without a referendum. The DUP might just go batshit insane® and agree with a VONC in Boris. The Lib Dems would support Corbyn on the proviso the deal never becomes law, and the SNP would have to give up on the Indy Ref demand to support Corbyn to hopefully never leave the EU in the first place. That would give Labour enough to win and force a referendum, actually. Don't think it would be enough to force a unilateral revoke, but it would be enough enable the referendum.
(October 18th, 2019, 13:58)Krill Wrote: I'm not sure what would happen if the deal got through without a referendum. The DUP might just go batshit insane® and agree with a VONC in Boris. The Lib Dems would support Corbyn on the proviso the deal never becomes law, and the SNP would have to give up on the Indy Ref demand to support Corbyn to hopefully never leave the EU in the first place. That would give Labour enough to win and force a referendum, actually. Don't think it would be enough to force a unilateral revoke, but it would be enough enable the referendum. But a VONC in that situation only works if there's MPs who vote for Boris' deal but immediately turn around and VONC him? That seems hard to justify for those specific MPs who'd have to flip.
The numbers are that tight. The only way the deal passes is with labour votes, and they will vote for a VONC. Even if every Tory votes for the deal it's still not enough.
October 19th, 2019, 12:28
(This post was last modified: October 19th, 2019, 12:32 by Mr. Cairo.)
Well, that was an interesting result. I think it's pretty likely that the EU will offer the extension, and if they do so before the next vote on the deal, then the deal could very well pass. Letwin at least said he'd be willing to vote for the deal if No Deal wasn't an option anymore. But the DUP are still against the deal, so Johnson would need more than a few Labour rebels on his side.
Edit: the funny thing is, I think that this deal would put Corbyn in Number 10. Brexit party supporters had been going back to the Tories because they thought Johnson would force no-deal. But if he passes this deal, they'll go back to the Brexit Party, ex-Labour BP supporters would go back to Labour now that it's actually happened, and Corbyn can get a lot of support from the Lib Dems by saying he'll negotiate to stay in the CU and SM.
VONC. DUP will do anything to break this deal, and I reckon it will pass on Tuesday after the EU refuse an extension. I think Boris pulled the vote today so the EU have no reason to offer an extension.
The EU will receive a letter today, and as the deal has not been agreed or declined, why offer any extension today at all? Then Boris bounces parliament into his deal or no deal vote, wins, and them the DUP support Corbyn in a VONC when he offers a referendum.
Corbyn might end up forced into a unilateral revoke though, if the EU held their ground, but I agree with the assessments that the EU will give an extension for a referendum.
I don't see how Corbyn can hold a government together until April though. And he can't afford a GE with a referendum being planned because he might just get crushed, a new Tory majority stops the referendum and passes Boris' deal anyway. But then again, weirder things have happened. |
