Brexit Political Discussion Thread

[MJW (ya that one)]

It's pretty obvious that they are doomed and it would not be a Hail Mary play if they hold the balance of power. They would just lie and then stop propping up BJ. Also BJ would lose more votes because the his deal is just a broad outline and you lose more votes as you get specific. A crash out is much worse then doing what BJ wants so Labour and Lib Dems should prop him up but they probably won't because it would be an endorsement to Tories and they benefit from the chaos a crash out would bring because it makes Tories look bad. This wouldn't work before the deal goes through because the UK could just Revoke but that wouldn't be possible anymore...

Edit: DUP would also be able to get some ERGers on board who would like No Deal better.

Naah This plan wouldn't work because EU would just offer extension so Tories can be propped up without being endorsed. It's pretty obvious that unionism is doomed (especially because the new Catholics' ratio is much lower than 1/3). I feel the DUP believes this because they would be trying to reach out to Catholics if they didn't but I could be wrong.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Electoral Calculus now projects a CON majority of 52 (68 if you add DUP) due to updated calculations. Will hold off posting the seats because Brexit party plans to stand down in 40 seats or so. This a good chance that the mastermind (who is not Nigel) behind Brexit Party is scared of Lib Dems unilaterally stepping down too. This would also explain why the last-second compact was not accepted.

Nigel claims Tories are trying to bribe people; don't know if true.

[MJW (ya that one)]

57 missing Brexit candidates.

[Krill]

Correlation with ERG candidates?

[MJW (ya that one)]

Mostly NI, Scotland and people who dropped at the last second to prevent a reselection. The rest are indeed probably ERG candidates. We already talk about everything but Scotland. They probably dropped because Scotland would probably leave the UK to stay in the EU so they cannot effectively campign there. Standing down will also hurt their polling when people become aware that they aren't running so it will help other Tories as people give up on Brexit Party, due to low polls. I very strongly suspect that the Brexit Party backers are scared of Lib Dems unilaterally withdrawing and are making a half-hearted run to prevent that or a compact. So they are running in as few seats as possible that will allow them to maintain the image they are trying to win. The orginal plan probably was to accept the last-second compact.

[Mr. Cairo]

this is interesting:
https://twitter.com/nupopulism/status/11...14049?s=21
tldr: At least one polling company is basing their results on somewhat unbelievable turnout rates. A massive drop in the turnout of under-35s compared to 2017, and an increase in turnout for over 55s, including a 90% turnout for 65+. For an election in winter.

I would not be surprised if the polling only gets close to the actual result in the last few days, just like in 2017.

Also, recent constituency polling in parts of London is showing massive Lib Dem gains from Labour, which will cause many Labour voters there to tactically vote Lib Dem to prevent the Tories taking/keeping them.


I personally believe that this election will result in another hung parliament. I think both Labour and the Tories will lose seats (or for the Tories not gain enough) and the Lib Dems, Plaid, and SNP will make large gains at the expense of both major parties. I also think the DUP will suffer, and not get enough seats to form a majority with the Tories.

Or it'll be 2017 all over again and nothing will have changed at all.

[Krill]

Do the Tory's have a majority of +10? If yes, then Boris' deal will pass. If Majority between 1-10, it'll be dicey but doable. No other party matters because they will not pass his deal even with a referendum. Whether the Lib Dems gain 50 seats and Labour lose 40 doesn't matter: Corbyn will still be leader of the official opposition.

Labor majority isn't going to happen because there are too many leave areas that will shit on Corbyn, and a Lib Dem majority is farcical. SNP cap out at 59 even if they carry every single seat, but no one will agree a confidence and supply agreement with them because of the indyref2 demand so they are just dead seats. OTOH, the only way to remove Boris as PM is to actually vote for a new government so even if the SNP can't get what they want, they are still going to vote for Corbyn as PM just to get rid of Boris (as a lame duck Corbyn is better than a lame duck Boris).

In this scenario though, potentially the Brexit party hold enough seats that stop Boris being kicked out. They probably don't pick up any though, but steal enough votes from Labour that there is some movement in Labour <-> Lib Dem contests.

All this to say: either Boris gets a majority for his deal, or we have another stalemate for 5 years.

[MJW (ya that one)]

First map that accounts for the 57 missing Brexit candidates. This includes tactical voting that increases as we near election day, unlike Electoral Calculus:

   

Speaker is labour and he's supposed to vote No when in matters so he should count against Tories. So it's a Tory Majority of 22 and Tory+DUP Majority of 40. My rating of Lean Tory+DUP majority remains unchanged.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Everyone other than Tories+DUP wants remain so they would be okay with ordering a second loaded refferendum with BJ as PM. So a stalemate can only happen with a team 10 short or so with a majority where rebels on their side (DUP+Tory vs Rainbow) can block. Unlikely...

[Krill]

The DUP just will not accept Boris deal though. They won't even vote for a referendum, they will always vote against it. Labour will vote for a referendum, it's in the manifesto, but I've not been able to find out if it's a referendum on the Boris deal or their deal.

So even a referendum is not obvious.