Brexit Political Discussion Thread

[MJW (ya that one)]

Electoral Maps UK predicts 320. I'll take the final gut prediction over the model. Jon Worth Predicts that CONs need 322 to win due to rebels, SF and DUP (PM) abstaining. But EMUK says SF and DUP would earn an extra seat each which would lower the number to 321. So Tory lose of 1. Polls are too nice to Tory and the extra 4 seats is killer so I have to give them the edge of victory but only a slight one.

Tory victory margins from the 57 missing Brexit candidates to the end:

+22 11/17
+44 11/24
+24 11/27
+18 11/28 <---Now considering Jon Worth
+46 12/2
+50 12/6
+34 12/10
-1 12/11 final

[Krill]

Bye-bye Europe.

Conservative majority of 86 according to the broadcasters exit poll.

Darrell, did I ever say I liked your modesty?

[MJW (ya that one)]

Ouch. Tories source of victory was Brexit Party dropping half the seats which caused their polling to crash. So it was two left parties vs one right party. I suspect Tories won't get up to 86 due to tactical voting but +20 or so it just as good as +86 because Johnson purged the moderates. Tories are going to get handed free wins until lib dems go away so I suspect labour will use the next election to wipe them out at all costs.

[Krill]

I don't even know what Labour can do to win at this point? How do they wipe out the Lib Dems? A decent chunk of LD voters will vote Tory before Labour: It probably makes more sense to make an electoral pact with an agreement to implement PR, but they just will not countenance such a deal, and the Tories win: The Tories have always maintained a broad enough church that factions never splintered off. The left just has to join together, win in a FPTP system then change the system.

[Krill]

Someone needs to start a "your getting fired in the morning" chant in Islington North Counting rooms.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I would have 5 member mmp with open primaries. Top 5 guys in get the party nomination (ranked choice ballot for each Edit: be incumbent or sig requirement (you cannot sign twice to avoid a flood of candidates). You could even have the primary and the GE together. Just flash party card to get primary ballot.

Edit: The primary ballot would be a vote for the party and parties would donate votes if they don't make the cut (with a cap of one time to avoid a Ricky Muir).

Maybe House of lords uses ranked choice ballot with one person in a mmp to avoid stalemate and an incumbent PM having an unfair advantage? RCB makes stable candidates so House of Lords can act as caretaker if Commons fails to form a goverment. Maybe make President two-rounder and allow him to appoint justices?

Make House of Lords require you to be an incumbent MMP or the incumbent. Use incumbent MPs for first election.

House of Lords=Forever caretaker government Commons=Passes laws

Late edit: I would make the primary a separate date because low information voters would give the establishment too much of an edge. A two round system would be possible in the house of lords too.

[Mr. Cairo]

I don't even know what Labour can do to win at this point? How do they wipe out the Lib Dems? A decent chunk of LD voters will vote Tory before Labour: It probably makes more sense to make an electoral pact with an agreement to implement PR, but they just will not countenance such a deal, and the Tories win: The Tories have always maintained a broad enough church that factions never splintered off. The left just has to join together, win in a FPTP system then change the system.

depending on how things swung, I don't know if they have to do much but hope that Brexit actually happens? If they lost lots of seats in the north of England, then after Brexit happens, a lot of those seats will go back (especially if it's a particularly harmful Brexit).

Meantime, if they did well in London, I don't think another 5 years of Boris as PM is going to hurt Labour there. So just elect a leader without all the baggage of Corbyn, and... wait.

[Krill]

Didn't people say that after 2015, just elect a leader who isn't Ed Miliband?

This is looking like the worst labour outcome in 90 years. I think a plan as basic as "wait" is unlikely to succeed.

[MJW (ya that one)]

BBC says SNP has 95% chance of gaining Jo Swinson's seat.

[Krill]

Oh god that would be awesome.