[54 Spoilers] Nothing to see here! Miguelito and Rusten's max score game

[Miguelito]

We'll see, if he offers an opportunity we sure are going to take it.

The worker comes out this turn, so do we follow up with a scout or a warrior? My first instinct was scout, then I got paranoid about Cairo building a WB first, then grow on a warrior which he could then send our way (although as far as we know he doesn't know our location yet).
We also have to put one of the turns before the pasture into the second worker, if we want to delay the decision.

[Rusten]

When are we getting our warrior if we go scout first?

This isn't RtR where barbarians don't show up until T50, we will need a warrior or two to safely escort settlers.

[Miguelito]

When are we getting our warrior if we go scout first?

This isn't RtR where barbarians don't show up until T50, we will need a warrior or two to safely escort settlers.

I had to look it up in the spreadsheet myself. According to plan, eot 20 for the first one and eot 25 the second. Not taking chances, I set for worker. I'm still slightly worried, because in an emergency we'll only be able t19 to rush it. But for that to happen, Cairo would have to have it underway already.

I was planning to cover the first settler with a warrior/scout pair. Did RtR somehow change barb appearance? But they should not be around yet for the second cities, should they? The scout is better against animals.

But there might be other candidates, because this is getting uncomfortable:


Seven tiles between caps (nauf's to ours as well as his to Cairo's), that's almost PB49 level. The problem here is that we are pretty badly set up for the naval game, with the only all-land-BFC-capital, and so far not even a very good coastal spot (I think it will have to be that FPH with stone first ring and fish 2nd - which touches his capital's BFC, yay). Now if naufragar is connected by land to MrCairo, he has better things to do than boating us (although he has shown a tendency to make more than one enemy at a time), but that remains to be proven. If he's not, we might be his closest target actually, and the prospect of having to guard our back like that seems nasty. Particularly if we don't get that (presumed) island.
It also makes me really worried that there might be a neighbour just as close to the west or south, although the tundra there could indicate that that is a backline for us. Would not complain.

F8:

shows us at 1.93% of land at 21 tiles, which should equate to ~1088 tiles, ~99 per player. About as much as what we see in that shot?

Demos show that one person has grown to size 2 and is raking in 10 food.


naufragar plays Augustus Caesar (IMP/IND) of Spain (Mysticism/Fishing / Citadel/ Conquistador)




pregame rating:
player: 7th
pick: 11th
fear rating: 7th
Cataphracatbility rating: 4th

Player: I think I first saw naufragar in PB38 where he seemed to build up decently to knights, but then made some grave tactical errors in his defense against mackoti. He then sat on a rather little island in PB42(?) and I think you swallowed him at some point Rusten? - but there wasn't much he could have done from what I remember. Then he teamed up with my dearest dedlurker in PB45, where Rusten convinced him of gearing the game towards a perceivedly overpowered UU - sounds familiar ? No, because vanilla Cataphracts are even awesomer than Machinery Samurai, and we're trying to build up an empire first here instead of bulbing straight ahead. Well, they eventually wrestled down superdeath, but exhausted themselves on the way, and the game was pointless anyways from t20 on or so. Lately we have seen naufragar pulling off a great show of Montezuma roleplay in civforum PB88,

where he has declared war on 3 opponents without going any further technologically than axes. He certainly had difficult land to start with and Montezuma, and may not have made the worst decision by igniting some fireworks at least before the inevitable end. LAtely he seems to just be waiting for that though. Solid tactics from what I've seen, terrible-hilarious strategy

.
I think his tactics hav eimproved a bunch, but he has not yet managed to come out ahead in the expansion game, although he has been dealt tough cards consistently. Maybe I'm underrating him?

Pick: It left me baffled, but I'll try to make sense of it. He evidently has a coastal start, and decided to go for a wonder (or more), so either GLH or Colossus. Did he in the end just pick Spain for the unique tech combination, to have Mysticism out of the way for Oracle? But in CtH he doesn't need fishing from t0 on, so Mining/Mysticism at least would have worked just fine, and there are some good options there. The thing is that Spain shoud really want PRO to get the discount on the buffed UB and the prerequisite walls. Now the citadel will be 150 hammers for him, with stone giving +100%. Maybe he thinks PRO is not as significant with the stone bonus? Is he excited about Conquistadores? Because he picked Spain straight away, at the top of the snake.

Our strategy: Depends a lot on scouting, but we will not have a land connection if not through Cairo, so we'll have to devise a naval strategy, which I feel will have to be defensive as it will be hard to get decent production on the coast while he'll have his capital. So we should befriend him somehow? But his aggression threshold is also pretty low, so we should rather never really trust him.
If he really wants the Oracle, there is no stopping him. He might mark it down as secure though and we could try to steal - but Our oracle plan isn't even a a fast one. Or he goes for GLH. But his coast heavy start and the pick give me little hope.

[Miguelito]

t13 came around:


his capital is set up to perfectly boat us. PB49 flashbacks intensifying. Cairo will likely uncover our borders next turn, if he hasn't alreadyand we couldn't see it. If he places a warrior on the orange dot elephant and then the floodplains in the second half of a turn, we have one turn to finish our warrior (and no 3 hammer tile ).

Btw the already grown city (still the only one this turun) is neither Cairo's nor naufragar's, is that a good or a bad sign? Good if it means Cairo has been building a worker, bad if he delayed growth to work hammers for a warrior.

[Rusten]

I know I said Pyramids might not be the best, but that's a very convenient stone. Would be wrong not to go for it at some point.

I don't see the problem in regards to naufragar. If anything we've got a favourable position as we'll be the ones controlling the ocean tile 1N of fish. But I consider him a natural ally based on positioning (and overall manner). I never eliminated naufragar in that PB41 game, he was prickly like a porcupine so I just controlled the seas pinning him in his cities.

Red and green dot seems the way to go. Very tempted to go red dot 2nd city, but I have no idea about our micro. It's extremely important to secure this area but OTOH growing to size 2 on only +3 food is a recipe for a terrible start. Then again, we're IMP and should be able to spit out enough settlers anyway. Let's revisit ideas in 2 turns when we know the location of horses.

RtR severely altered barb spawning/appearance. They come much earlier in normal games. I think we want the warrior. I don't remember which turn they start showing up on monarch -- would have to check it.

Naufragar has had some bad luck, yes. While he's not our strongest opposition he's not a pushover either.

[Miguelito]

I think pyramids went from nope to unlikely. Masonry makes sense for SPI, if we get a religion. But it's very far in the future still.
Do you still consider Oracle? I'm giving up a bit on it, as the land is so tight and we really need to take care to get our chunk of it and stay safe meanwhile. Also, with red dot, purple wanders 1E, and that site has less forests (gets the wet rice though.

Which brings me to the main issue, red dot. Scouting of the area isn't complete yet, but I'll try to do an assessment with current knowledge:

Pros:
- great defensive value on its own
- good defensive polygon with green dot/capital/purple
- nice cottage city long term, with some hammers, particularly in the early phase
- would be a great holy city

Cons
- potential to antagonize Cairo permanently, if there is no good site south of his capital (Scouting during the next few turns will clarify)
- low on food. That can be helped somewhat if we (pre-) farm the FP 2S1E (only possible if 3rd city)
- as explained, it weakens the Oracle plan, but that's a longshot anyways

On Cairo: he's AGG. I don't think we can found this city without copper. Provided he's not totally boxed in between Elkad, naufragar, and us, and that we take care to keep or power rating up, I don't think though that he is the guy to just whip a stack of axes and end both of our games. He might come somewhere between t70-90 though with horse archers or a bit later with catapults. But if we look spiky enough he may keep preparing and never actually move in. He'll also likely have the option of moving against Elkad, who isn't IMP. But can Cairo tolerate this city I front of his capital, if he can't fit in a good buffer?
Now I imagine the map layout such that copper wool be in a backline spot most probably, so I still think we are likely looking at blue for second and red for third, if at all. If the spot has horses but no copper Cairo will see that, and what do we do about an AGG spear/axe pair then?

Sorry, I'm rambling, and writing on the phone doesn't help.
TLDR: I think red without copper doesn't work; it's a good third city, the question is do we gain enough from the defensive value to justify the conflict potential with Cairo

Also the map, why are we all so close together?
- the capital's might add be close to the equator, and people have backlines to tree north/south. This nought happen in clusters, and even separated on two (or three) continents
- the continent might be really tight in fact, and the 100 tiles per player include a good amount of Astroland
-....?

[NobleHelium]

I'm not sure why you are surprised at the map size.  You proposed the game and asked for a rather tight map.  I didn't make the map, but by my judgment this map is entirely consistent with your original post.

[Miguelito]

t14
played before Cairo, so I did not see his scout move, but I expect him to move onto the red dot hill. naufragar apparently is indeed seperated from us by that channel:


rice is dry as far as I can tell (no "fresh water" on mouseover, but shouldn't it say +1f with irrigation? Or is that just after building the farm?)
White dot is what I expect Cairo to found. 1S would be daring, on that flat land. 1NW would be better for us, and also is on the coast, but I guess it only makes sense if it lets him share a capital resource.
The area is not precisely astonishing for him, and if the copper isn't there I don't see him founding for 2nd city there. And as I said I'd expect copper to be in a somewhat safe backline spot. Putting it here into the open grassland would be pretty cruel. So, with IMP and the whip we should be good to claim red as 3rd? (still, I'd like to discuss the short/mid-term diplomatic implications of that move)

Still only one city grown to size 2, although both our neighbours picked for fishing as a start tech (is it an accepted strategy to go WB->worker without growth? Yeah why not I suppose).

I was making overview shots to maybe get the sandbox running tonight, and thought lurkers would also like the stitch, although the timing is bad 1 turn before AH:

[Miguelito]

I'm not sure why you are surprised at the map size.  You proposed the game and asked for a rather tight map.  I didn't make the map, but by my judgment this map is entirely consistent with your original post.

First off, I'm not complaining, sorry if it came across as such. I'll save that for if things go bad here. A rather tight map (less than 49) was what I asked for and what I still look forward to playing - moreso if we succeed here, because I can see myself managing a 20-30 empire here, but not 60, and I suspect Rusten will agree. And vs Cairo, the layout is more or like what I would expect from "rather tight" - both sides have space for second ring cities, although it gets pretty cozy. I'd have liked one more row between us, but what do I know.

But I am surprised, or wondering: We voted on map size (so my OP in the tech thread is not the final order), and the result as pretty divided between tight and more space, so I supposed Commodore would look for a compromise there. And it seemed so with ~100 land tiles per player (before the game I think the talk was of about 90, 49 was 70). But for that, a distance of 7 squares between caps seems too little. Maybe that is the compromise - capitals are facing each other, but there are backlines for everybody to get some cities down. It's also quite possible that Commodore first went for 90 tiles per player on the main continent(s), and then added 100 tiles of astroland.

[Rusten]

We probably have a lot of uncontested land down south.

Settling green and orange and letting Cairo settle white isn't horrible, but it's very meek.